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by Arlie M. Skov P.E. CCCOGP Meeting The Grand, Long Beach, CA September 17, 2008

by Arlie M. Skov P.E. CCCOGP Meeting The Grand, Long Beach, CA September 17, 2008. U.S. Energy Needs: Fossil Fuels or Renewables ?. Sources of Energy. Primary. Fossil fuels : Coal, oil, gas (stored biomass) Solar : Sunlight, wind, hydropower, biomass,

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by Arlie M. Skov P.E. CCCOGP Meeting The Grand, Long Beach, CA September 17, 2008

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  1. by Arlie M. Skov P.E.CCCOGP MeetingThe Grand, Long Beach, CASeptember 17, 2008 U.S. Energy Needs: Fossil Fuels or Renewables?

  2. Sources of Energy Primary • Fossil fuels: Coal, oil, gas (stored biomass) • Solar: Sunlight, wind, hydropower, biomass, • Nuclear: Geothermal, fission, fusion • Celestial motion: Tides • “Dark Energy”: 72% of universe

  3. Sources of Energy Secondary or Converted (With Losses) • Electricity • Hydrogen • Ethanol, biodiesel, etc. • Muscle power (biomass)

  4. U.S. Energy Use: 100 Quads/Year and Growing at One Quad/Year One Quad is One Quadrillion BTU’s (1 x 1015) • Or 160 mn bbls oil (440,000 BOPD) • Or 50 mn tons of coal (3000 trainloads) • Or 12 bn gal. of ethanol (30 mn acres, half of all corn) • Or 37 new 1000 MW nuclear power plants • Or 50 mn cords of wood (annual new growth of 85 mn acres, 1/3 all US forest land) • Or 150,000 1 MW wind turbines

  5. U.S. Energy, Fuel, Farm Workers 1650 to 2000 MMBTU per Capita 360 100 340 230 100 Energy Use, Fuels, Workers

  6. U.S. Energy Use – 2007 By Fuel, By Sector, in Quads

  7. Rate of Change in U.S. Energy Use By Source, 1997-07

  8. Rate of Change in U.S. Use of Renewable Energy By Source, 1997-07

  9. Oil Prices, Consumption, and the Economy A Brief History

  10. Oil Prices and the Economy • Duration (months) X Depth (peak GDP drop, %) • 1929-33 = 1420

  11. Summary: Status of U.S. Energy Use Growth and Problems • U.S. economy grew using cheap energy • Biggest uses and growth rates • Electric power, 41 Q, 15% • Transportation, 29 Q, 16% • Both coal and oil produce CO2 • CO2 capture and sequestration?

  12. What Must Be Done Electric Power • Build new nuclear power plants, recycle spent fuel and alleviate regulatory political restrictions • Use CO2 capture & sequestration for coal-fired plants • Fully develop low-cost intermittent sources: Wind, solar, tides, etc. • Conservation, automatic with price? • Build more dams with pumped storage

  13. What Must Be Done Transportation • Liquid fuel for autos, trucks, tractors, trains, planes and boats is indispensable • Must develop all U.S. oil and gas resources, onshore and offshore • Develop biofuels as competing uses permit • Build Fischer-Tropsch plants with CO2 capture • Longer term: Computer control of traffic, electric power and batteries for land transport

  14. Problems with Wind Power Intermittency and Predictability, (E=mv3) Germany, 2004: Wind Power from 7000 Wind Turbines, % of Daily Peak Grid Load, From 0.2-38%!

  15. History of U.S. Nuclear Power Number of New Units Annually & Years to Build

  16. How Fast Can We Develop U.S. Energy Sources?

  17. Impediments to Rapid Development of New U.S. Energy Sources • Excess regulation • Proliferation of NGO’s • Lawsuits • A pampered public • Obsequious politicians pandering to a pampered public and to NGO’s

  18. Effeteness: Lacking or loss of ability to get things done

  19. Examples of Legal & Regulatory Delays

  20. “Four years to design and build a new Chevrolet? *#}! We won World War II in less time than that!” - Ross Perot (as member of GM Board)

  21. U.S. Energy Needs: Fossil Fuels or Renewables? • We need both… and quickly. • Alleviate or eliminate barriers to action: legislative, judicial, environmental, partisan, political bickering, NIMBY & BANANA • Quickly develop comprehensive energy plan – not piecemeal, partial, political, or slowly • Implement plan quickly and decisively, before the world economy and ours collapses completely

  22. What About the Federal Energy Bill? Signed December 19, 2007 • Mandates 35 mpg for autos (including SUV’s) by 2020, up from 27.5 • Mandates 36 bn gal of biofuels per year by 2022, w/ max of 15 bn corn-based ethanol • Today’s use: 140 bn gal gasoline and 6 bn gal biofuels “Only this and nothing more.” The Raven

  23. A Brief History of CAFE Corporate Average Fuel Economy • Enacted 1975 • Autos standard set at 27.5 MPG • Light trucks (pickups, vans, SUV’s) exempt • Auto mpg 1975-05: up 64% to 22.9 MPG • Light trucks mpg up 54% to 16.2 MPG • Light trucks, as % of automotive fleet, up from 15% to 41%

  24. “CAFÉ is like trying to fight obesity by requiring tailors to make only small size clothing.” - Bob Lutz, Chairman, GM

  25. Correlation Function, EU.S. Energy Use E = Q/P*G(Q=quads, P=population, G=GDP in 1996$) Ln E

  26. Lessons from Early U.S. History • Prior to 1850, used only “renewable” fuels • From 1800 to 1925, % of US work force on farms dropped from 86% to 19% • Concurrently, “renewable” fuel use dropped from 100% to 10% • Total fuel use jumped 45-fold, from 0.5 quads to 22.4.

  27. by Arlie M. Skov Cosmopolitan Club of Santa BarbaraElks Lodge, Goleta, CAJuly 17, 2008 U.S. Energy Needs: Fossil Fuels or Renewables?

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