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POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON INDIANA BAT MATERNITY RANGE

POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON INDIANA BAT MATERNITY RANGE. Susan Loeb and Eric Winters USFS, Southern Research Station. Winter. Summer. Gardner and Cook 2002. Gardner and Cook 2002. No Records. Hibernacula. Maternity Colonies. Hibernacula & Mat Colonies. Gardner & Cook 2002.

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POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON INDIANA BAT MATERNITY RANGE

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  1. POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON INDIANA BAT MATERNITY RANGE Susan Loeb and Eric Winters USFS, Southern Research Station

  2. Winter Summer

  3. Gardner and Cook 2002

  4. Gardner and Cook 2002

  5. No Records Hibernacula Maternity Colonies Hibernacula & Mat Colonies

  6. Gardner & Cook 2002

  7. Given: • Northern maternity distribution • Restriction to mountains in SE • Sufficient habitat Questions: • Does climate affect summer MYSO distribution? • How will warmer temps affect summer distribution in the future?

  8. Methods • 183 Summer maternity records • Maxent • Maximum entropy model • Presence only • 75% training, 25% test

  9. Methods • Current distributions • County level PRISM climatology • 1970-2000 monthly means • TmaxAvg across May-Aug • Precip May-Aug • Elevation • Future distributions • 4 Future climate forecasts • 2021-30, 2031-40, 2041-50, 2051-60

  10. Current Distribution Training data (AUC = 0.83) Random pred (AUC = 0.50)

  11. Important Variables AvgTmax = 41.5% May Precip = 27.6% Elevation = 24.8%

  12. Important Variables AvgTmax = 41.5% May Precip = 27.6% 74.1-81.3 °F Elevation = 24.8%

  13. Current Distribution

  14. Current Distribution

  15. AvgTmax

  16. May Precipitation

  17. Change in Area

  18. Change in Area

  19. Some Caveats • Correlative study • Does not consider land-use changes • Maternity roosts urban to forested areas • Does not consider CC effects on hibernacula

  20. Research & Management Implications • Role of heat in Indiana bat roost site selection? ?

  21. Management Implications • Importance of Appalachians • Restore pine-oak habitats • Maintain large dbh snags • Change in micro-habitat selection?

  22. Management Implications • Interactions with WNS?

  23. Management Implications • Interactions with WNS?

  24. Questions?

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