Real Time Cost Impact Assessment of Composite and Metallic Design Alternatives

1. Real Time Cost Impact Assessment of Composite and Metallic Design Alternatives Dr. Christopher Rush Joe Falque Karen McRitchie

2. Overview • Introduction • Composite Structures – New Challenges • Background and Related Research • Cost Estimating Challenges, Parametric Cost Modeling • Design for Manufacture and SEER-DFM • SEER-DFM Examples • Analysis of Transmission Servo Piston • Composite and Metallic DFM analysis of SUV Fender • Summary and Conclusions

3. Objective • Introduce the SEER-DFM cost model methodology for developing composite and metallic cost trade study analyses

4. Introduction • Composite technology is evolving • Engineers are less familiar with composite structures and processes compared to traditional metallic processes • Presents new set of design and cost modeling challenges • Cost Commitment (see next slide) • Composite Affordability Initiative (CAI) sought to address these issues • SEER-DFM embodies 30 composite processes along side 70 more traditional manufacturing processes • Provides a framework to perform real time cost trade studies

5. Cost Commitment • 70 - 80 % of product cost is committed during product concept phases • Most cost incurred during production phases • Scope for cost reduction reduces in product phase

6. Background and Related Research • Cost Estimating Challenges • Limited amount of data during development phases, high uncertainty and expected error • Accounting for technology changes • Requirements to show how cost estimates were derived • risks, assumptions, uncertainty • Estimates need to follow a consistent reliable process

7. Background and Related Research • Parametric Cost Modeling • Dates back to the 1950’s; • introduced by the RAND Corporation for the US Air Force • widely used by Government and Industry • Uses historical samples to establish relationships • Uses the past to predict the future • Sometimes called Statistical Estimating • Linear regression most popular & simplest technique y = a + b(x) • Typically used during the product development stages • Reduces time required to produce estimates

8. Background and Related Research • Cost estimating relationship example

9. Design for Manufacture and SEER-DFM • Design for manufacture (DFM) • Practice of designing with manufacturing in mind • Emphasis on multidisciplinary teams, supersedes sequential product development process

10. Design for Manufacture and SEER-DFM • Integrated product teams reduce the likelihood of costly engineering changes

11. Design for Manufacture and SEER-DFM • DFM saves companies money Savings % Respondents

12. Design for Manufacture and SEER-DFM • Process based parametric cost modeling • Applies the parametric concept to manufacturing processes Finishing Air Gun Spray; Thermal Spray; Electrostatic; Vacuum Metalize; Dip; Chromate/Phosphate; Electrocoat; Electroplate; Brush Electrical Assembly Cable; Harness Mechanical Assembly Fasteners; Riveting/Staking; Gas Flame Welding; Arc, MIG, TIG Welding; Electron Beam Welding; Spot Welding; Brazing; Adhesive Bonding Mold/Cast/Forge Injection Molding; Rotational Molding; Thermoform Molding; Sand Casting; Die Casting; Investment Casting; Forging; Powdered Metals Machining Conventional & High Speed; Milling; Shaping; Turning; Boring; Grinding; Screw Machining; EDMing; Drilling; Reaming; Tapping; Sawing; Broaching; Gear Hobbing; Deburring; Coring Fabrication Shears-Brakes; Punches; CNC Turret; Laser Cut; Gas Flame Cut; Plasma Arc Cut; Dedicated tool & Die; Progressive Die; Spin Forming; Tube Bending; Plate Roll Bending Composites Layup; Filament Winding; Pulltrusion; Composite Spray PC Board Assembly Board Fabrication; PCB Assembly/Solder

13. Design for Manufacture and SEER-DFM • Extended CAI Processes

14. Design for Manufacture and SEER-DFM • Process based parametric cost modeling • When integrated with the design process – cost becomes an optimization variable • Perform real time cost trade studies during design process

15. SEER-DFM Case Studies • DFM Analysis of Transmission Servo Piston • Study goals • Ascertain manufacturing costs • Evaluate tradeoffs using DFM principles • Study began with a rough sketch • Processes modeled using work elements e.g. machining, fabrication, and assembly • Part modeled by creating a work breakdown structure

16. SEER-DFM Case Studies • Describe major components of transmission servo piston, and their assembly • Describe each component with respect to the people, product, and processes required to manufacture and/or assemble it • Reduce data input with knowledge bases • Pre defined templates of inputs

17. SEER-DFM Case Studies • Output estimate results using charts and reports • Reports and charts illustrate that most cost is related to machining labor

18. Option 1 Option 1 - - Option 2 Option 2 - - Option 3 Option 3 - - Machined Machined Die Cast Die Cast Die Cast Die Cast Shaft Shaft Shaft Shaft Shaft / Retainer Shaft / Retainer Material Material $2.3155 $2.3155 $2.3610 $2.3610 $2.3510 $2.3510 Cost/Unit Cost/Unit Total Labor Total Labor Cost/Unit Cost/Unit $4.2944 $4.2944 $3.6463 $3.6463 $3.6316 $3.6316 Tooling Tooling $0.1161 $0.1161 $0.2843 $0.2843 $0.2925 $0.2925 Cost/Unit Cost/Unit Total Total Cost/Unit Cost/Unit $6.7260 $6.7260 $6.2916 $6.2916 $6.2751 $6.2751 SEER-DFM Case Studies • Alert function suggests • consider casting instead of raw stock • reduce part count – consolidate • Change parameter detail inputs for real time cost impact assessment • Including spring retainer as part of the casting = more complex cast, but reduced assembly cost

19. SEER-DFM Case Studies • Composites and metallic DFM analysis of SUV Fender • Considers 3 options: • Fabrication of steel fender • Fabrication of aluminium fender • Composite manufacture using P4 process and RTM curing • Assumptions • 180,000 production run • Manufacturing labor rate US$100 • Assembly labor rate US$75

20. SEER-DFM Case Studies • P4 (Programmable Powdered Preform Process) • Developed for automotive • GM use P4 to cost effectively manufacture Silverado truck cargo • Process time 4 minutes

21. 1 1 2 2 3 3 SEER-DFM Case Studies • Spray cut fibres and powdered binder on to a preformed, perforated screen tool • Vacuum and chopper head pressure ensure uniform layup thickness • Hot air is blown through a consolidation tool to melt the powdered binder on the preform • Preform is then ready for resin infusion - RTM

22. SEER-DFM Case Studies • P4 parameter inputs RTM inputs

23. SEER-DFM Case Studies • Trade off analysis • P4 process reduces time by 50% • P4 process reduces labor cost by 36% • Reduced material costs • 45% compared to aluminium • 2% compared to steel • Reduced total cost • 42% compared to aluminium • 21% compared to steel • Despite increased P4 tooling cost per unit • Effect on bottom line • Total savings $553,264

24. SEER-DFM Case Studies • Estimate Probability • All estimates have a degree of uncertainty • Model uncertainty using least, likely, most inputs • Output a range of possibilities for management decisions

25. Summary and Conclusions • Introduced a process based parametric cost model methodology • Cost model integrates cost as design variable • Perform numerous real time cost impact assessments • Achieve optimum design through informed DFM decisions • Methodology is used to assess cost impact of composite and metallic design options

26. Contact Details • Christopher Rush • Galorath Incorporated100 N Sepulveda Blvd, Suite 1801El Segundo, CA 90245 • Tel: 310 414 3222 • Email: CRush@Galorath.com • Website: www.galorath.com