Regional Workshop on Agriculture-Related Issues in The Preparation for Accession to The WTO

1. Regional WorkshoponAgriculture-Related Issues in The Preparation for Accession to The WTO Countries in the Process of Accession to the WTO in the Near East: Major Agriculture and Food Security Issues Nasredin Hag Elamin FAO Regional Office for the Near East, Cairo

2. Importance of Agriculture • Agriculture employs the majority of the population in most of the countries (tab) • Agriculture is the main source of livelihood for the rural people • In some countries, the share of agriculture in total merchandise exports is very high • Agricultural trade is highly concentrated in a few commodities

3. Importance of Agriculture (back) Source: FAOSTAT, FAO; World Development Indicators, 2008, World Bank

4. Food Security Status • Number of undernourished is high in most of the countries • Little progress has been achieved in meeting the MDG and WFS Targets • More than 75% of the poor and undernourished reside in rural areas

5. Undernourished Population, 1990-92, 2002-04 Source: FAOSTAT, AFO; World Development Indicators CD-Rom, 2008, World Bank

6. Major Challenges Facing Agriculture • Water scarcity • Acute scarcity (< 500 m3 per capita ): Algeria, Libya, Yemen • Stress (500 – 1000): Lebanon, Somalia, Syria • Abundance (1700): Iraq, Iran, Sudan • Global average (5000 m3 per capita) • Coping with drought and natural disasters • High dependence on rainfall • Frequent incidence of droughts • Low productivity per unit of land and water • High dependence on food imports • Loss of several export markets (cotton, dates, livestock, raisins) • Compliance with the growing demand for high quality and standards in world markets

7. Food Imports • The majority of these countries are net food importers with high and increasing dependence on food imports (tab) • Nature of the problem: - Severe scarcity of irrigation water - Changing consumption pattern - High variability in rain fall, hence fluctuations in production of basic foods

8. Cereals: percentage share of imports in total domestic consumption

9. Emphasis of Current Strategies: Priority Areas for Action • Increasing water use efficiency • Raising agricultural productivity per unit of land and water resources • Diversification of production and trade into high value crops and processed products • Enhancing competitiveness of farmers, processors and traders • Improving market access conditions to foreign markets, particularly in Europe, the major market • Safeguarding against import surges and unfair trade practices • Raising self sufficiency (in some countries)

10. What the WTO Accession Mean for these Countries? Policy - Rights Framework - Obligations Outcome - Potential gains - Potential risks

11. Risks • Reduced policy space to design domestic priorities along existing strategies • Some of the emerging and growing sectors/sub-sectors may prematurely be exposed to unnecessary, and possibly unfair, external competition

12. Accession to WTO: Some Concerns • Lack of clarity on expected benefits and costs (for agriculture) of joining the WTO – in the short and long terms • Lack of, and difficulties in conducting, comprehensive and credible studies to assess impact of accession to the WTO on agriculture and rural development, trade and food security • Preparing schedules of commitments in a way that serves the economic and social development in the country • Securing flexibility through negotiations: • Maintaining the necessary domestic policy flexibility • Safeguarding the economy from world market hazards and unfair trade practices • Access to developed country markets, particularly the EU