Items and actions

1. Items and actions • Modifications to current forecasts • Website and data • Research into future forecasts • Organization and implementation

2. Summer 2009

3. Modification to current forecasts • Replace deterministic forecast • 3-category probabilistic shading + contouring • calibrate • shading limits and “no forecast” • skill measures • aesthetics and website • Canada map + skill is 1st order with links: • 3 category full probabalistic • skill measures • data • …..

4. Other approaches

5. Proposal (see also Kharin report) • calibrate • shade > 40% • no shade => “no forecast” or “other” • map over Canadian region • no pole • no US • only 1 shading bar (see examples) • add skill map • links to • full probability forecasts • skill scores • data • mean and s

6. SK example

7. Details • Calibrate using Kharin method • Shade above 40% • no-shade = “no-forecast” or “other” • attach skill measure (eg. % correct) • links to: • full probability forecasts • other skill measures • past forecasts etc., but better web design

8. Website and data • monthly, seasonal forecasts mislabelled under “modelling and analysis” • need button on weatheroffice page which at least indicates “extended forecasts” • Actions • inform Chas Lin, D. Whelpdale, and others .. • set up Website Task Force Monthly and Seasonal forecasts

9. Website design: Forecasts hard to find (at best)

10. Website task force • set up task force for Monthly and Seasonal Forecast section of website • propose a (re) design of MSF section • separate section for MSF – “new” forecast on main page • cleaner look, hierarchy of links to: • 3-panel probability forecasts • verification information • up to date explanatory information • data • etc. • produce an explicit proposalfor MSF section • including review process to keep up to date • set time limits for design/proposal • lobby and demand/promote action

11. Data hard to find/out of date

12. Forecast data task force • mechanism to keep forecast data up to date • link to explanatory material on HFP2 • provide additional information • basic statistics, mean and s • other variables for applications • energy • agriculture • focus for interaction with data users

13. Other forecasts • HFP2+ and CMC seasonal forecast evolution • extend HFP2 to present • add additional forecast models (AGCM4, CHFP1, …) • Subseasonal • CCCma participation • initially in Bin Wang intercomparison • CCCma/RPN “research plan”, resources • GLACE2/GOAPP • surface initialization effects • part of GOAPP in conjunction with GUELPH • GLACE2 intercomparison

14. CHIP2 • CHFP = HFP but 1-tier, coupledmulti-season forecast project • GOAPP Theme II project • contribution to WGSIP “Climate-system Intercomparison Project” i.e. their CHFP • basis for WGDIP/WGCM/CMIP5 decadal climate forecasts • how do we plan for and exploit CHFP?

15. CHFP/coupled forecasting task force • document and summarize: • international and Canadian approaches • planning for research and operations • path to operations • melding with current CMC monthly/seasonal forecasts • outputs and multi-seasonal skill • ice forecasting • treatment on website • data availability • international aspects • supplying of forecasts to APCC • accessing and combining with other forecasts • contribution to WGSIP CHFP

16. Other items • EC Resources for SIP • initial 1+1 “shared” personnel for SIP concentrated at RPN and CMC • at minimum need similar at CCCma • CFCAS/external resources • 1-year no-cost extension means some GOAPP effort to continue for a few months • prospect for CFCAS replacement seems dim • GOAPP report/meeting with EC and DFO – opportunity to stress: • activities in other G8 countries compared to Canada • amazing leveraged results with micro-resources • need for EC resources to continue progress • computing • highly trained personnel, one of the outputs of GOAPP • international efforts in SIP and applications of short term climate predictions