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Lecturer’s desk

Screen. Cabinet. Cabinet. Lecturer’s desk. Table. Computer Storage Cabinet. Row A. 3. 4. 5. 19. 6. 18. 7. 17. 16. 8. 15. 9. 10. 11. 14. 13. 12. Row B. 1. 2. 3. 4. 23. 5. 6. 22. 21. 7. 20. 8. 9. 10. 19. 11. 18. 16. 15. 13. 12. 17. 14. Row C. 1. 2.

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Lecturer’s desk

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  1. Screen Cabinet Cabinet Lecturer’s desk Table Computer Storage Cabinet Row A 3 4 5 19 6 18 7 17 16 8 15 9 10 11 14 13 12 Row B 1 2 3 4 23 5 6 22 21 7 20 8 9 10 19 11 18 16 15 13 12 17 14 Row C 1 2 3 24 4 23 5 6 22 21 7 20 8 9 10 19 11 18 16 15 13 12 17 14 Row D 1 2 25 3 24 4 23 5 6 22 21 7 20 8 9 10 19 11 18 16 15 13 12 17 14 Row E 1 26 2 25 3 24 4 23 5 6 22 21 7 20 8 9 10 19 11 18 16 15 13 12 17 14 Row F 27 1 26 2 25 3 24 4 23 5 6 22 21 7 20 8 9 10 19 11 18 16 15 13 12 17 14 28 Row G 27 1 26 2 25 3 24 4 23 5 6 22 21 7 20 8 9 29 10 19 11 18 16 15 13 12 17 14 28 Row H 27 1 26 2 25 3 24 4 23 5 6 22 21 7 20 8 9 10 19 11 18 16 15 13 12 17 14 Row I 1 26 2 25 3 24 4 23 5 6 22 21 7 20 8 9 10 19 11 18 16 15 13 12 17 14 1 Row J 26 2 25 3 24 4 23 5 6 22 21 7 20 8 9 10 19 11 18 16 15 13 12 17 14 28 27 1 Row K 26 2 25 3 24 4 23 5 6 22 21 7 20 8 9 10 19 11 18 16 15 13 12 17 14 Row L 20 1 19 2 18 3 17 4 16 5 15 6 7 14 13 INTEGRATED LEARNING CENTER ILC 120 9 8 10 12 11 broken desk

  2. Introduction to Statistics for the Social SciencesSBS200, COMM200, GEOG200, PA200, POL200, or SOC200Lecture Section 001, Spring, 2013Room 120 Integrated Learning Center (ILC)10:00 - 10:50 Mondays, Wednesdays & Fridays. Welcome http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oSQJP40PcGI

  3. Homework review Based on data (Percent of stocks that meet reach or exceed target price on first day) Based on expert opinion - don’t have previous data for these two companies merging together Based on data (Percent of rockets that successfully launch) Based on apriori probability – not previous experience and not data-driven

  4. Homework review Based on expert opinion (experience of experts), but not actual percent of space stations that have actually been critically damaged by debris. Based on actual data (percent of results that are fake pages)

  5. . .8276 .1056 .2029 .1915 .3944 .4332 .3944 .3944 55 55 55 52 44 50 50 44 - 50 4 52 - 50 4 -1.5 +.5 = = 55 - 50 4 +1.25 = z of 1.5 = area of .4332 z of 1.5 = area of .1915 1.25 = area of .3944 55 - 50 4 55 - 50 4 +1.25 +1.25 = = .5000 - .3944 = .1056 z of 1.25 = area of .3944 z of 1.25 = area of .3944 .4332 +.3944 = .8276 .3944 -.1915 = .2029

  6. .3264 Homework review .2152 .5143 .1255 .3888 .1736 .1736 .3888 3,000 3,500 2,500 3,500 3,000 2500 - 2708 650 3000 - 2708 650 3000 - 2708 650 -.32 = 0.45 0.45 = = z of -0.32 = area of .1255 z of 0.45 = area of .1736 z of 0.45 = area of .1736 3500 - 2708 650 3500 - 2708 650 1.22 = 1.22 = .5000 - .1736 = .3264 z of 1.22 = area of .3888 z of 1.22 = area of .3888 .3888 +.1255= .5143 .3888 - .1736 = .2152

  7. .0764 Homework review .9236 .1185 .4236 .4236 .4236 .3051 10 12 20 20 10 - 15 3.5 -1.43 = 20 - 15 3.5 20 - 15 3.5 1.43 1.43 = = z of -1.43 = area of .4236 z of 1.43 = area of .4236 z of 1.43 = area of .4236 12 - 15 3.5 -0.86 = .5000 + .4236 = .9236 .5000 - .4236 = .0764 z of -.86 = area of .3051 .4236 – .3051 = .1185

  8. Please click in My last name starts with a letter somewhere between A. A – D B. E – L C. M – R D. S – Z Please hand in your homework

  9. Use this as your study guide By the end of lecture today2/22/13 Empirical, classical and subjective approaches Probability of an event Complement of an event; Union of two events Intersection of two events; Mutually exclusive events Collectively exhaustive events Conditional probability

  10. Schedule of readings Before next exam (March 1st) Please read chapters 5, 6, & 8 in Ha & Ha Please read Chapters 10, 11, 12 and 14 in Plous Chapter 10: The Representativeness Heuristic Chapter 11: The Availability Heuristic Chapter 12: Probability and Risk Chapter 14: The Perception of Randomness

  11. Labs continue this week Project 1 Lab sessions

  12. Homework due – Monday (February 25th) On class website: Please print and complete homework worksheet #13 Dan Gilbert Reading and the Law of Large Numbers

  13. Comments on Dan Gilbert Reading

  14. If P(A) = 0, then the event cannot occur. If P(A) = 1, then the event is certain to occur. The probability of an event is the relative likelihood that the event will occur. The probability of event A [denoted P(A)], must lie within the interval from 0 to 1: 0 <P(A) < 1

  15. Probability The probabilities of all simple events must sum to 1 P(S) = P(E1) + P(E2) + … + P(En) = 1 For example, if the following number of purchases were made by

  16. What is the complement of the probability of an event • The probability of event A = P(A). • The probability of the complement of the event A’ = P(A’) • A’ is called “A prime” • Complement of A just means probability of “not A” • P(A) + P(A’) = 100% • P(A) = 100% - P(A’) • P(A’) = 100% - P(A) Probability of getting a rotten apple 5% chance of “rotten apple” 95% chance of “not rotten apple” 100% chance of rotten or not Probability of getting into an educational program 66% chance of “admitted” 34% chance of “not admitted” 100% chance of admitted or not

  17. Two mutually exclusive characteristics: if the occurrence of any one of them automatically implies the non-occurrence of the remaining characteristic Two events are mutually exclusive if they cannot occur at the same time (i.e. they have no outcomes in common). Two propositions that logically cannot both be true. NoWarranty Warranty For example, a car repair is either covered by the warranty (A) or not (B). http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=188474&title=an-arab-family-man

  18. Collectively Exhaustive Events Events are collectively exhaustive if their union isthe entire sample space S. Two mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive events are dichotomous (or binary) events. For example, a car repair is either covered by the warranty (A) or not (B). NoWarranty Warranty

  19. NoWarranty Satirical take on being “mutually exclusive” Warranty Recently a public figure in the heat of the moment inadvertently made a statement that reflected extreme stereotyping that many would find highly offensive. It is within this context that comical satirists have used the concept of being “mutually exclusive” to have fun with the statement. Decent , family man Arab Transcript: Speaker 1: “He’s an Arab” Speaker 2: “No ma’am, no ma’am. He’s a decent, family man, citizen…” http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=188474&title=an-arab-family-man

  20. Thank you! See you next time!!

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