40 likes | 188 Views
Case Comparison Matrix . Major Differences in Cases Retirement: BAU retires 2,000 MW per NC Lawsuit requirements SET retires 2,000 MW per delayed negotiated schedule C&G retires 3,000 MW per NC Lawsuit requirements and for future expected regulations New Additions:
E N D
Case Comparison Matrix • Major Differences in Cases • Retirement: • BAU retires 2,000 MW per NC Lawsuit requirements • SET retires 2,000 MW per delayed negotiated schedule • C&G retires 3,000 MW per NC Lawsuit requirements and for future expected regulations • New Additions: • BAU and SET Cases focus on Nuclear and CT additions, with some CC, renewables and EE&DR • C&G Case adds nuclear, CC and CT in a more balanced approach, along with pumped storage and more aggressive renewables and EE&DR • Costs: • BAU and SET CASE costs similar with ~700M savings for SET case including REC and CO2 costs • C&G incurs ~$2B additional costs for fuel and EE&DR, while saving ~$2B in expected CO2 costs • Risks: • BAU Case leaves TVA exposed to future regulatory risk, public scrutiny and limited economic opportunities in gas market • SET Case mitigates some regulatory risk, but maintains similar future risks to BAU • C&G Case mitigates significant regulatory risk and provides a more flexible, diversified portfolio, but increases exposure to gas market (if unhedged) and transmission risk for renewables 1 TVA Restricted Information – Deliberative and Pre-Decisional Privileged
Potential Future Portfolios Business As Usual (2,000 MW Fossil Mothballed or Retired) Settlement (2,000 MW Fossil Mothballed or Retired per EPA schedule) Cleaner & Greener (3,000 MW Fossil Mothballed or Retired in accelerated fashion) Extreme Change (7,000 MW Fossil Mothballed or Retired in accelerated fashion) • Additions: • 3 nuclear units • 12 gas plants– CT dominant • 0 pumped storage plant • EE & DR- moderate • Renewables– moderate • PPA’s– used to cover gaps • Mothball/Retire/Repower: • JSF 1-2 • WCF 1-6 • JOF 1-10 • Additions: • 3 nuclear units • 12 gas plants– CT dominant • 0 pumped storage plant • EE & DR- moderate • Renewables– moderate • PPA’s– used to cover gaps • Mothball/Retire/Repower: • JSF 1-2 • WCF 1-6 • JOF 1-10 • Additions: • 3 nuclear units • 12 gas plants– CC dominant • 1 pumped storage plant • EE & DR- expanded • Renewables- expanded • PPA’s – used to cover gaps Mothball/Retire/Repower: • JSF 1-2 • WCF 1-6 • JOF 1-10 • Additions: • 3 nuclear units • 15 gas plants– CC dominant • 1 pumped storage plant • EE & DR- aggressive • Renewables- aggressive • PPA’s– used to cover gaps Mothball/Retire/Repower: • JSF 1-4 • WCF 1-6 • JOF 1-10 • SHF 10 • COF 5 • JSF 3-4 • COF 5 • SHF 10 • ALF 1-3 • GAF 1-4 • SHF 1-9 • COF 1-4 *All Additions, Mothballs & Retirements are Transmission Dependent 2 TVA Restricted Information – Deliberative and Pre-Decisional Privileged
Potential Future Portfolios Risks Business As Usual (2,000 MW Fossil Mothballed or Retired) Cleaner & Greener (3,000 MW Fossil Mothballed or Retired in accelerated fashion) Extreme Change (7,000 MW Fossil Mothballed or Retired in accelerated fashion) • Risks: • Gas price volatility exposure (if unhedged • EE & DR program expectations are not met and other resource alternates’ schedules cannot ramp up in time • Deliverability risk if transmission for renewables is not available in time to support extreme levels • Less stringent or delay in environmental regulations • Exposure to permit approvals and resource construction cost • Operational challenges of managing renewables • Ability to remain cost competitive • Risks: • Gas price volatility exposure (if unhedged) • EE & DR program expectations are not met requiring supplemental PPAs or advancing new build • Deliverability risk if transmission for renewables is not available in time to support moderate levels • Less stringent or delay in environmental regulations • Exposure to permit approvals and resource construction cost • Risks: • More stringent environmental regulations evolve beyond critical decision dates • Higher costs for CO2 • More stringent renewable requirements unfold at a later time • Gas prices remain low without expanded gas fleet to take advantage • Stakeholders critical of level of emissions • Exposure to permit approvals and resource construction cost 3 TVA Restricted Information – Deliberative and Pre-Decisional Privileged
EPA Settlement Benefits Business As Usual (2,000 MW Fossil Mothballed or Retired) Cleaner & Greener (3,000 MW Fossil Mothballed or Retired in accelerated fashion) Extreme Change (7,000 MW Fossil Mothballed or Retired in accelerated fashion) EPA Agreement • Moves system toward cleaner and greener profile: • Helps mitigate environmental regulation risk • Opportunity for timely decisions that allow future flexibility • No significantly different in overall financial costs from other cases • Addresses litigation risk and likelihood of litigation: • Adverse NSR decision would limit operational flexibility and interject the court and, possibly, EPA or NGOs into operation decisions • Reduces reasons for suing TVA on CAA issues • Reduces potential civil and criminal liability risks for past maintenance projects • Provides some protection for maintenance projects going forward • Likely to bolster TVA’s environmental image resulting in: • Improved media coverage • Improved relations with current Administration and Congress • Improved public opinion of TVA 4 TVA Restricted Information – Deliberative and Pre-Decisional Privileged