AGOA overview Trade performance under AGOA Legislative changes: AGOA I - AGOA III

1. Clothing and Textile Sector WorkshopAGOA I to AGOA III: Trade Performance and Recent Legislative AmendmentsEckart Naumanntralac / WESGRO WorkshopCape Town, South Africa08 October 2004

2. Overview AGOA overview Trade performance under AGOA Legislative changes: AGOA I - AGOA III AGOA III: earlier proposals absent in the final legislation Implications for South Africa and the region Implications for SACU-US free trade negotiations

3. Trade Performance: 2003 – 2004 ytd

4. Clothing sector trade – sample countries

5. Overview Exchange Rate

6. Trade Performance

7. AGOA I - AGOA II First changes to AGOA introduced at end 2002 Affected only clothing, and country designation (Botswana & Namibia) Clothing rule changes: Quotas doubled Knit-to-shape permitted (previously only cut to shape used in the wording) LDCs permitted to use foreign yarns (previous confusion as reference only to foreign fabric – customs interpreted narrowly as meaning ‘from AGOA yarn’)

8. AGOA II - AGOA III Signed into law mid 2004 Extends AGOA to 2015 Where migration to FTA, full cumulation Extends clothing provisions and Rules of Origin: Extends LDC rule 3 years (3rd with half quota, i.e. 1.18%) Quota % stays same 2008 – 2015 Expands folkloric provision (commercial production of ethnic fabrics, but conditions, e.g. from US or African yarn) Extends value tolerance rules: Allows foreign collars and cuffs, drawstrings, shoulder pads and elbow patches Foreign fibres and yarns 10% (prev. 7%)

9. What was left out of AGOA III ? Earlier versions HR & S Bill Extension to 2015 / 2020 LDC provision to 2008, optional 2-yr extension – countries w/o fabric manuf. Increase quotas to 10% (and 3.5% for LDCs) / even remove all quotas – subject to compliance with RoO AGOA eligibility continuous w/o annual review (unless non-compliance) Removes investment and trade finance restrictions on certain US institutions, (e.g. on textile and apparel projects)

10. What was left out of AGOA III ? Earlier versions HR & S Bill Includes some prev. excl products, e.g. canned peaches, other agric. goods Removes import sensitivity rqmt. Budget of US$ 85mn for APHIS technical assistance

11. Implications for South Africa and region In the absence of FTA greater planning horizon for stakeholders Value tolerance rules benefit clothing sector in SA and region Extension of LDC rule: detrimental to SA ? loss in relative competitiveness Opportunities for local design (houses), contracting to LDCs? investment diversion from (and instead of) SA to region? Quotas: a likely problem in year 3? Incentive / disincentive for regional textile producers?

12. Implications for South Africa and region AGOA extension unlikely to fully mitigate end of MFA Provision of technical assistance by APHIS very important – e.g. case of Zambian sugar peas, SA oranges Besides extension, watered-down AGOA III of little new benefit except to clothing sector

13. What was left out of AGOA III ? Earlier versions HR & S Bill Extension to 2015 / 2020 LDC provision to 2008, optional 2-yr extension – countries w/o fabric manuf. Increase quotas to 10% (and 3.5% for LDCs) / even remove all quotas – subject to compliance with RoO AGOA eligibility continuous w/o annual review (unless non-compliance) Removes investment and trade finance restrictions on certain US institutions Includes some prev. excl products, e.g. canned peaches, other agric. goods Removes import sensitivity rqmt. Budget of US$ 85mn for APHIS technical assistance

14. Implications for SACU-US FTA negotiations Extension of AGOA a disincentive to conclude FTA? Improved negotiation basis, although uncertainty remains Cumulation: non-FTA countries don’t suffer, FTA full cumulation Must build future FTA on aquis: expand coverage to non-AGOA goods (e.g. textiles, canned fruit, minerals and metals, etc.) Challenge of clothing RoO: push for single CTH for all SACU? Principle has strong basis in AGOA AGOA built on VA – what about US-SACU? [NAFTA, US-Chile, US- Singapore based largely on CTH, but US-Jordan and US-Israel largely VA)