Social Gaming Crystal Ball: 2012

1. Social Gaming Crystal Ball: 2012 Dave Rohrl Creative Director, Playdom Casual Connect Europe February 9, 2012

2. What Is the Crystal Ball?

4. Goal • Predict important FB gaming trends • Understand reasons • Forecast impacts

5. Methodology • But seriously • Year in Social Games reflection • Deflecting trends lines • General industry trend lines • Inside/Outside social • Interesting financial events and key quotes

6. Caveat Auditor • Hugely speculative • Hard to predict • Consider the source

8. Prediction #1 Social Goes Casual (Not Easy Money)

9. Trend Line • 2008-2009: Text RPG

10. Trend Line • 2008-2009: HTML RPG • 2009-2010: Simple Decorators

11. Trend Line • 2008-2009: HTML RPG • 2009-2010: Simple Decorators • 2010-2011: Builder

12. Trend Line • 2008-2009: HTML RPG • 2009-2010: Simple Decorator • 2010-2011: Builder • 2011-2012: Genre diversification

14. Dominant Mammal? • Casual!

15. 2010 Casual Hits

16. 2011 Casual Hits

17. Why Does This Work? • Demographics/Psychographics • Large pool of experienced devs • Well-understood core game

18. Why Now? • Development experience • Code has been cracked • Market is very, very proven

19. 2011 Casual Hits

20. Missing From the Picture?

21. But…… • Expect lots of failure • Merging is hard • Execution is key • Lots of people trying

22. So? • Classic casual gameplay as entry point • Stock up on high skill • Both sides of the coin • Winners win big • Execution wins

23. Prediction #2 HTML5 Makes A Dent (But Doesn’t Become Dominant)

24. What is HTML5? • Web development standard • Open • Cross-platform • 2D gaming support via canvas • 3D gaming support via WebGL (still in infancy)

25. Trend Line • Early yet Late 2010 Late 2011

26. Why Now? • April 2010: “new open standards, created in the web era, such as HTML 5, will win (over Flash) • September 2010: Zynga buys Dextrose AG • January 2011: Facebook publishes HTML5 browser performance stats, suggests future prefs • March 2011: Disney acquires RocketPack • November 2011: Adobe abandons Flash for mobile, focuses on HTML5

27. Why Does It Matter? • Web/mobile apps • Web = big $$$ today • Mobile = web of the future • Internet in your pocket

28. Is Web/Mobile Cross-Platform Always a Good Idea? • Mostly, kinda, sorta • UI refactor • Different play patterns • Different purchase drivers • Different release cycles • BUT partial is better than nothing

29. Why Not Dominant? • Lots of skilled Flash teams • Lots of games in the pipeline • Variable browser performance

30. So? • If you’re not gearing up now, you should • You NEED a mobile strategy • Free-ish (with HTML5) • Watch out for browser performance variance • This section will look VERY different in the 2013 version.

31. Prediction #3 IP Becomes Really Important (But Still Isn’t a Magic Wand)

32. Why is IP Important? • Facebook had over 550,000 apps as of January 2010 • Probably 2MM+ by now • iPhone had over 300,000 apps as of January 2011 • 600,00 by now

33. Where Do Little Users Come From? • Directory Search • Game Channel • Virals • Word of Mouth • Advertising • Directory Search • Game Channel • Virals

34. IP and Advertising • Does IP lower acquisition costs? • Yes!

35. Oh, and

36. Additional Benefits • Fan Base • Price Points • Content Stream

37. But…

38. Remember… • Trial ≠ Conversion • Conversion isn’t just monetization

39. Prediction #4 Mobile-> Web Gets Leverage (But Doesn’t Dominate)

40. Web->Mobile 2010

41. Mobile->Web Stories 2010

42. Pseudo Web->Mobile

43. Mobile->Web Stories 2011

44. Mobile->Web Stories 2012??

45. Why? • Similarity of play patterns • Related expertise • Enough resources

46. But…. • Not a freebie • UI • Play duration & other variations • Interoperation is hard • Competition will accelerate

47. …And the Rest • The All-Singing, All-Dancing Photorealistic 3D Game Still Doesn’t Make It • 2009 Won’t Come Back For Hardcore Strategy Games • 2012 (post-IPO) Will Be An Interesting Year For the Zynga Quality Bar

48. Thank You! • Questions? • Feedback! • drohrl@playdom.com