Yannis C. Yortsos Dean

1. 早安 歡迎 Yannis C. YortsosDean

2. Green and Smart for a Sustainable Future (Renewable Energy and Information Technology) THU, Beijing, July 12, 2010 Yannis C. Yortsos

3. The Simple Calculus of Sustainability • Let’s define two indices: • r = w = • And two rates: • Depletion rate R= r*N; • Waste (Pollution; Climate Change) rate W=w*N • where N is Global Population (and/or World “Flatness”) • Population, pollution and depletion issues => • public policy and economic components

4. The Simple Calculus of Sustainability (II) • “Business as usual” => r and w constant => • Resource Depletion and Waste (Pollution) Generation • Unsustainable • Renewable (green) and intelligent (smart) => r and w decrease => • Manageable Resource Limitations, Reduced Waste • Towards sustainability • r = ; w = R= r*N; W=w*N

5. Population (and World Flatness) Growth • Today: N= 6.8bn people • In 2050: N~9.15bn • To Relax Demographic Strains Requires Sustainable Economic Growth • Global Economic Output Increased by 2-3%/yr (about 1.7% due to technology, rest to growing labor force) • This will require sustainable resources

6. Emphasis on Renewable Energy: Three Whys Fossil Fuels are a Finite Resource Need to Reduce CO2 Emissions Security of Energy Supply

7. 226Gb 191Gb Finite Resources Almost Gaussian (e.g. Hubbert peak in oil production) Today Peak Cumulative oil production Curve is a cumulative normal (mean 1976.3, standard deviation 28.3y) *Courtesy of Dave Rutledge, Caltech

8. Even though Innovation… • IT advances (Intelligent and Efficient Processes) • Materials advances can extend capacity Effect of Technology Courtesy of S. Prakash: From the “Methanol Economy” by Olah et al.

9. Basic Notions hydro, tides wind • “Energy”=Kinetic (1/2mv2) + Potential (mgh) + + Internal (e.g. chemical bonds, electrons/photons, nucleus) • First Law of Thermodynamics: ΔU = Q–W • “Energy”=“Power” + “Heat” + “(Transportation) Fuels” (ICE) fuels PV nuclear W Q

10. The Balance Sheet- Renewable Energy* • Transport • Cars, planes, freight • Heating and Cooling • Lighting • Electronics • Food • Manufacturing • Wind • Solar • PV, thermal, biomass • Hydroelectric • Wave • Tide • Geothermal • Nuclear = Consumption (Demand) Production (Supply) *Sustainable Energy Without the Hot Air, David JC McKay, 2009 www.withouthotair.com

11. Big Picture* Other Third-hand solar Standard of Living Second-hand solar • All calculations for Great Britain • (per person per day) • 1kWh/day=40W~ 1 light bulb • Nuclear not included Buildings/Food Sustainance First-hand solar • At first glance, things balance! Transportation *Sustainable Energy Without the Hot Air David JC McKay, 2009 Second-hand solar

12. Note: A Matter of Real Estate-Two Dimensions

13. But then, enter politics…

14. Intersection of Energy with IT Demand Supply • Improving Efficiencies by Adding Intelligence (IT): • Understudied, poorly optimized • Enabling New Technologies • The obvious: Replacing/Expanding physical space with cyber space (e-{insert word}) • Leads to • Increasingly greener IT • Cybersecurity (SCADA) Issues

15. GHG: Reduction Potential with IT 2009 U.S. Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report, April 2009 http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/usinventoryreport.html Commercial Transportation Residential Industrial • Improved efficiency with Information Technology (IT) usage • 29% expected reduction in GHG • Equal to gross energy and fuel savings of $315 billion dollars

16. Examples from Energy Initiatives at the Viterbi School Reducing Demand IT+Green Buildings Green Data Centers Smart Grid: IT+Megacities Combustion Efficiencies Increasing Supply Solar Energy+Solid-State Lighting Carbon Capture and Sequestration Smart Oilfields: IT+ Reservoirs Geothermal Energy USC EFRC (Department of Energy) US-China Center Proposal Partner with Stanford GCEP NSF ERC Proposal Cisoft- Partnership with Chevron DoE-LADWP DoE Partner with Princeton and Delaware EFRCs (Department of Energy) Also Marine Diesel Emissions

17. Green Buildings Research Thrust Areas 1 Integrative design framework for building sustainability Integrative DESIGN & Retrofit 2 Energy efficient building materials 3 Energy efficient solid state lighting 4 Advancedheatpipes for passive heating and cooling provide optimize 5 Operational efficiency optimization, control, & demand response 6 Software & sensor data information systems measured by inform 7 Comparative sociological & behavioral study DOE’s Smart Grid Demonstration Project @ USC 8 Outcome evaluations & education outreach Outcome & Outreach real-time energy data

18. Current Trends Current Trends Internet Traffic Improved Operations Improved Operations Server Shipments Green Data Center Goal Green Data Centers:Necessity • Three drivers have led to a “datacenter crisis” • Demand for digital services • Increase in power dissipation of IT • Increase in cost of electrical energy • Datacenter annual growth (15%) is unsustainable • Datacenter power projected to be > 8% of US power by 2020 • Datacenter carbon emissions are projected to exceed those of the airlines by 2020 • Need paradigm shift in data center computing for a more sustainable and scalable IT energy efficiency 16 16 3500 3500 Internet Traffic 14 14 3000 3000 Server Shipments 12 12 2500 2500 /Month /Month 10 10 2000 2000 Thousands Thousands 8 8 1500 1500 Exabtes Exabtes 6 6 1000 1000 4 4 Source: Gartner 500 500 2 2 0 0 0 0 2006 2006 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 12 2.5% of US Power > 50 MMT CO2 15 New Power Plants 160 160 140 140 120 120 100 100 Power (B KWh) Power (B KWh) 80 80 60 60 40 40 Source: US EPA 2007 20 20 0 0 2000 2000 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 14

19. Green Data Centers: Key Enablers Software Primitives, Applications, and Benchmarks Green Applications & Data Center Scale Optimizations New Building Blocks and Architectures Adaptive Control Policies and Mechanisms Load Balancing, Virtualization, Server Consolidation Flexible, Efficient, & Configurable Building Blocks Simulation, Modeling, Characterization and Prediction Pervasive Cross-layer Sensing& Visualization

20. LASmartgrid: DoE demonstration project Funded by DoE under American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) Collaborative effort: Los Angeles DWP, USC, UCLA, ISI, JPL and third party vendors $120M, Jan 1 2010-Dec 31 2014

21. Energy Informatics Power generation, distribution, infrastructure development and maintenance Application of IT to integrate and optimize assets in the energy domain Data analysis and integration, large scale computing infrastructure and scalable applications Usage patterns, consumption behavior analysis, knowledge and awareness dissemination

22. Integrated Asset Management Distribution Networks Energy Sources Integrated Asset Model for Energy Informatics Metering Systems Semantic Data Models High Performance and Distributed Computing Infrastructure Consumers

23. Research Areas Lighting accounts for24% of the energy used in US buildings. (> 6 Quads* in 1998)! • Low Cost, Efficient Photovoltaic Materials • Semiconductor Nanostructures • Organic Materials • Organic / Nanostructure Hybrids • LED Materials for Solid State Lighting • Molecular Organic LED Materials • GaN Nanostructure LED Materials

24. Nanostructures for Third Generation Solar Cells and LEDs c InP GaAs GaN 200 nm Nanowires for Solar Cells and LEDs QD’s using Block Copolymer Lithography Nanopore Heterostructures

25. Phosphorescent OLEDs Revolutionize OLED Technology DOE TARGET • ROADMAP Targeted % improvement •  IQE 20-30% •  Voltage 15-30% • Outcoupling 50% •  150 lm/W CEN / UDC: 102 lm/W Konica-Minolta J. Kido Philips

26. The 14 NAE Engineering Grand Challenges Sustainability Vulnerability Make Solar Energy Economical Provide Energy from Fusion Develop Carbon Sequestration Methods Manage the Nitrogen Cycle Provide Access to Clean Water Engineer Better Medicines Advance Health Informatics Reverse Engineer the Brain Secure Cyberspace Prevent Nuclear Terror Restore and Improve Urban Infrastructure Enhance Virtual Reality Advance Personalized Learning Engineer the Tools of Scientific Discovery The joy of living Health USC Summit on the NAE Grand Challenges, October 6-8, 2010

27. 謝謝您! THU, Beijing, July 12, 2010 Yannis C. Yortsos

28. Energy + IT • Create • Green Computing (e.g. Green Data Centers) • Change Urban Paradigm • Smart Urban Infrastructure (e.g. Smart/Green Buildings) • Transform • Energy Distribution and Usage (e.g. Smart Grid)

29. Fossil Fuels • Oil, gas, coal: Essentially biofuels, but • with carbon captured millennia ago • also non-renewable • Oil and gas contain mostly CHx x~2 (oil, e.g. octane C8H18), x~4 (gas, e.g. methane, CH4) • Liquid hydrocarbons contain largest energy/volume • four times the (liquid) hydrogen equivalent • Likely to remain a larger part of the portfolio of energy options (particularly transportation) ~ 85%

30. CO2 Emissions Current level 387 ppm Increase in both CO2 atmospheric concentration and CO2 emissions following the industrial revolution

31. Energy Contribution to Greenhouse- Gas Emissions* Energy the largest share of GHG emissions- mostly as CO2 *Overall CO2 Contribution is 44%

32. Basic Notions (II) • Issues: Capture/Utilization: Transfer from an energy state (A) to a lower state (B) E.g. oxidation CH4 + 2O2 --> 2H2O + CO2 (+ ΔH) Storage (Internal- Batteries) H -----A Transmission (Power Grid) ΔH ----B time • Efficiency and kinetics (conversion losses) Second Law of Thermodynamics (Losses, e.g friction, in all Irreversible (non-equilibrium)Processes)

33. The 14 NAE Engineering Grand Challenges Sustainability Vulnerability Make Solar Energy Economical Provide Energy from Fusion Develop Carbon Sequestration Methods Manage the Nitrogen Cycle Provide Access to Clean Water Engineer Better Medicines Advance Health Informatics Reverse Engineer the Brain Secure Cyberspace Prevent Nuclear Terror Restore and Improve Urban Infrastructure Enhance Virtual Reality Advance Personalized Learning Engineer the Tools of Scientific Discovery Engineering + {} The joy of living Health USC Summit on the NAE Grand Challenges in October 2010

34. Liquid hydrocarbons most efficient energy/volume Oil Courtesy of S. Prakash: From the “Methanol Economy” by Olah et al.

35. Testbeds Electric Vehicles testbed Cybersecuritytestbed Third party vendor solutions testbeds USC Testbed Sensor networks and control systems testbed Application and Data access platform testbed (USC) Social and Behavioral analysis testbed (USC) System architecture testbed (USC)

36. Reality: Today’s Servers Are Not Energy-Proportional An energy-proportional server must have a power efficiency of more than 80 percent of its peak value for utilizations of 30 percent and above, with efficiency remaining above 50 percent for utilization levels as low as 10 percent.

37. ERC Strategic Framework PI: Massoud Pedram Title: NSF ERC for Resilient, Manageable, and Sustainable Information and Communications Infrastructure (RMSI) Lead: University of Southern California

38. US-China Center Proposal • Advanced heat pipe for passive heating and cooling • Energy efficient solid state lighting • Energy efficient building materials development • Operational efficiency optimization, control, and demand response • Software and sensor data information systems • Integrative design, building life cycle, and sustainability • Comparative sociological and behavioral study • Outcome evaluations and education outreach