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Guidance TAFs served by an NNEW Web Feature Service

Guidance TAFs served by an NNEW Web Feature Service. Matt Peroutka Meteorological Development Lab NOAA/National Weather Service. Mark Oberfield Steve Olson. Dan Gilmore John Schattel. Acknowledgements. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAF).

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Guidance TAFs served by an NNEW Web Feature Service

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  1. Guidance TAFs served by an NNEW Web Feature Service Matt PeroutkaMeteorological Development LabNOAA/National Weather Service

  2. Mark Oberfield Steve Olson Dan Gilmore John Schattel Acknowledgements

  3. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAF) • Operational forecasts of aviation weather conditions at an aerodrome • National Weather Service (NWS) issues TAFs at least 4 times daily for ~700 locations • Text code form • Evolving WXXM form

  4. Model Grids Model Output Statistics (MOS) • Successful, operational forecast technique • Accurate, reliable guidance • Ceiling, visibility, and many other weather elements • Four times daily Least Squares Regression Sensible Weather Elements

  5. Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) • Update to MOS • Focus on aviation weather elements • Issued hourly MOS Least SquaresRegression Sensible Weather Elements Advection Observations

  6. Delivering LAMP • Today • Text bulletins • Guidance TAFs in text • BUFR, GRIB • NextGen • Grids via Web Coverage Service (WCS) • Guidance TAFs in WXXM • Probabilistic TAFs in WXXM

  7. KBWI 212320Z 2200/2306 13003KT P6SM SCT025 OVC040 FM220200 00000KT 5SM BR SCT025 BKN040 FM220600 00000KT 3SM BR FEW002 SCT007 BKN060 FM221100 00000KT P6SM BKN120 FM221400 30007G16KT P6SM SCT050 FM222000 28008G15KT P6SM BKN250= Innovative technology that combines LAMP probabilities with human-issued forecasts to emphasize the strengths of both. LAMP Experimental Guidance TAFs

  8. FM241300 13017KT 2SM BR OVC010CB <avwx:windSpeed uom="kt">17</avwx:windSpeed> <avwx:windDirection uom="deg">130</avwx:windDirection> <avwx:prevailingVisibility uom="SM">2</avwx:prevailingVisibility> <wx:CloudCondition gml:id="KMEM_46"> <wx:base uom="ft">1000</wx:base> <wx:amount>OVERCAST</wx:amount> <wx:types>CUMULONIMBUS</wx:types> </wx:CloudCondition> <wx:WxCondition gml:id="KMEM_47"> <wx:weatherModifier>MODERATE</wx:weatherModifier> <wx:weatherPhenomenon>MIST</wx:weatherPhenomenon> <wx:wxCode>BR</wx:wxCode> </wx:WxCondition> LAMP Experimental Guidance TAFs in WXXM

  9. LAMP TAFs in WXXM Tops of gray bars indicate Pr(cig<MVFR) Tops of teal bars indicate Pr(cig<IFR)

  10. LAMP TAFs in WXXM • Forecast probability distribution of ceiling • Valuable information for aviation decision making

  11. “Probabilistic TAFs” in WXXM wx:probability>4</wx:probability> <wx:interval> <wx:Range> <wx:end uom="SM">0.5</wx:end> <wx:rangeModifier>lessThan</wx:rangeModifier> </wx:Range> </wx:interval> <wx:probability>21</wx:probability> <wx:interval> <wx:Range> <wx:end uom="SM">1.0</wx:end> <wx:rangeModifier>lessThan</wx:rangeModifier> </wx:Range> </wx:interval> <wx:probability>65</wx:probability> <wx:interval> <wx:Range> <wx:end uom="SM">2.0</wx:end> <wx:rangeModifier>lessThan</wx:rangeModifier> </wx:Range> </wx:interval>

  12. “Probabilistic TAFs” in WXXM • Not just ceiling • Conditional ceiling (conditioned on precipitation occurring) • Visibility • Conditional visibility (conditioned on precipitation occurring) • Chance of freezing/frozen precipitation

  13. Notional NextGen Architecture 13

  14. Zoom in... We are here. NDFD/NDGD 14

  15. Collaborating to Deliver Web Services • NOAA will have many data sources • No need for Cube Edge Input Servers (CEIS) at every data source • MDL will implement a set of Source Service Adapters (SSA) and transfer WXXM documents to CEIS at NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL)

  16. Collaborating to Deliver Web Services Silver Spring, Maryland LAMP Experimental Guidance Forecasts NDFD/ NDGD Source Service Adapter WXXM Documents NOAANet Boulder, Colorado Cube Input Edge Server To the 4-D Cube

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