Ocean Climate Observation State of the Program

1. Ocean Climate Observation State of the Program Report to the 7th Annual System Review Silver Spring, MD October 25-27, 2010 David Goodrich Acting Director, Climate Observations Division NOAA Climate Program Office photo courtesy of MeteoFrance

2. Building on Past Contributions …

3. Climate Observation Division Mission Build and sustain a global climate observing system that will respond to the long-term observational requirements of the operational forecast centers, international research programs, and major scientific assessments.

4. Ocean Climate Requirements • Indicators of Change • Sea level rise • Ocean carbon sources and sinks • The ocean’s storage and global transport of heat and fresh water • The air-sea exchange of heat and fresh water • Sea ice extent Global Average Sea Level Change Ocean Storage of CO2 World Ocean Heat Content Global Average Sea Surface Temperature Arctic Sea Ice Extent 4 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

5. Capabilities Required • Global coverage by moored and drifting buoy arrays, profiling floats, tide gauge stations, and ship-based systems. • Continuous satellite missions for sea surface temperature, sea surface height, surface vector wind, ocean color, and sea ice. • Data and assimilation subsystems • System management and product delivery

6. Ocean Observations are Critical to the NCS Implementation Strategy Five Societal Challenges Water – TAO array data supports ENSO prediction, benefits US water resource decision-making Coast-Local Sea-level Rise and Inundation – Argo supports global ocean steric component; major in situ networks Marine Ecosystems – CORC support and California Current Ecosystem mooring with biogeochemical sensors Extremes in Changing Climate – Tropical Atlantic network supports hurricane information Human Influence – Repeat Hydrography/CO2 Program assesses changing ocean biogeochemical cycle and acidification in response to human-induced activity

7. The Initial Global Ocean Observing System • Composite system of systems designed to meet Climate requirements, but also supports: • Weather prediction • Global and coastal ocean prediction • Marine hazards warning • Transportation • Marine environment and ecosystem monitoring • Naval applications • 8 of 9 Societal Benefits • Tide gauge stations • Drifting Buoys • Tropical Moored Buoys • Profiling Floats • Ships of Opportunity • Ocean Reference Stations • Ocean Carbon Networks • Arctic Observing System • Dedicated Ship Support • Data & Assimilation Subsystems • Management and Product Delivery • Satellites -- SST, Surface Topography, Wind, Color, Sea Ice

8. The Organizing Framework All six global in situ implementation programs are linked internationally through WMO/IOC JCOMM coordination

9. International Partnerships • are Central A global system by definition crosses international boundaries. NOAA’s contributions are managed in cooperation with the Joint WMO/IOC Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM)

10. Global Ocean Observing System for Climate Now 61% complete.

11. The Last 48 Hours

12. Argo Profiling Float Array

13. Surface Drifting Buoys 1250 sustained array (achieved) September 18, 2005

14. Analysis

15. Delivering Routine Ocean Analyses • Sea level to identify changes resulting from climate variability. • Ocean carbon content every ten years and the air-sea exchange seasonally. • Sea surface temperature and surface currents to identify significant patterns of climate variability. • Sea surface pressure and air-sea exchanges of heat, momentum, and fresh water to identify changes in forcing functions driving ocean conditions and atmospheric conditions. • Ocean heat and fresh water content and transports to: 1) identify changes in the global water cycle 2) identify changes in thermohaline circulation and monitor for indications of possible abrupt climate change 3) identify where anomalies enter the ocean, how they move and are transformed, and where they re-emerge to interact with the atmosphere. • Sea ice thickness and concentrations to identify changes resulting from, and contributing to, climate variability. • The ocean is now prominent in the BAMS annual “State of the Climate” special edition.

16. Budget

17. Ocean Funding History $ K 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

18. Some Opportunities and Challenges • Climate Service a high DOC and NOAA priority • FY11 increase request in jeopardy • Ship Support • Over $0.5M of unanticipated ship time costs • Low priority for climate in Fleet Allocation • TAO Transition to NCS • Potential government-wide reductions

19. CPO’s Climate Observation Division • John Calder – Arctic Program • Candyce Clark – JCOMM coordination, Ocean program mgmt. • Kathy Crane – Arctic Program • Howard Diamond – Atmosphere, GCOS (NCDC) • David Goodrich – Acting Director • Sik Huh – International coordination (detail) • Joel Levy – Ocean program mgmt., Science editor • Gillian Lichota – Arctic Program • Chris Miller – Climate Change and Data Detection • Bill Murray – Climate Change and Data Detection • Claudia Perez – Administration, Finance • Steve Piotrowicz– Argo • Diane Stanitski– Ocean program mgmt., Annual System Review • Sid Thurston – International coordination

20. Thank You