Presentation Transcript

1. Bldg. 370, 450 Serra Mall Stanford University Stanford, CA 94305

   The Poverty Report Card David B. Grusky Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality

   prepared for ... The Way Forward Innovating Together to Cut Poverty June 5, 2013
2. Agenda The case for monitoring poverty and inequality … frequently Introduce the Report Card
3. Road Map goals Reducing poverty through targeted interventions Evaluating the effectiveness of targeted interventions Monitoring progress and changing the conversation about poverty
4. The case for monitoring The structure of poverty changes (sometimes quickly) Getting poverty in the news … often Demonstrating that policies have effects Allows for real-time response
5. Poverty rate is at or near highest level in last half century for children and non-elderly adults Sheldon Danziger, Koji Chavez, and Erin Cumberworth, Recession Trends (www.recessiontrends.org), Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality
6. Young adults have borne brunt of takeoff in poverty Sheldon Danziger, Koji Chavez, and Erin Cumberworth, Recession Trends (www.recessiontrends.org), Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality
7. Rising deep poverty (i.e., less than $2/day in 2011 dollars) Source: “Rising Extreme Poverty in the United States and the Response of Federal Means-Tested Transfer Programs,” Luke Shaefer and Kathy Edin
8. Declining percent of poor living in families with at least one worker Absolute deterioration in employment situation of poor Predates recession Source: Recession Trends initiative (www.recessiontrends.org, Sheldon Danziger, Koji Chavez, Erin Cumberworth)
9. Rise in poverty most prominent in high-poverty metropolitan areas Poverty increases most in high poverty metropolitan areas Source: Recession Trends initiative (www.recessiontrends.org, Robert Sampson and Ann Owens)
10. Keeping it in the news Even if poverty were unchanging we need to keep talking about it Create regularized events that become news in and of themselves The plan Quarterly measurement Annual report card
11. Quarterly measurement Individuals over age 15 with family incomes below SPM threshold Children living in nonworking poverty families Black Hispanic White Asian 2008 2007 2009 2010 2011 2012 Tale of two measures Unemployment measures: Once a month Poverty measures: Once a year (and outdated at moment of release)
12. Policy does have effect Not some complicated puzzle (like finding cure for cancer) We know what to do And it’s been done In the U.K. Even here Sheldon Danziger, Koji Chavez, and Erin Cumberworth, Recession Trends (www.recessiontrends.org), Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality
13. Counterfactuals American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA): Would it have reduced poverty had it been applied in 2008? Answer: By 1.3 points (via tax credit expansions, additional payments to Social Security recipients, SNAP benefit increases) An ongoing macroeconomic response (as with unemploy- ment)?
14. The Report Card event A national day of reckoning … a national scandal and shared problem Comparisons Over time Across states and counties The power of grading Tie-ins Pathways Magazine Poverty and inequality briefs (see www.recessiontrends.org) Quick response teams Challenges Sample size Bay Area heterogenity Reconciling with Road Map
15. Qualitative measurement of poverty Qualitative studies of poverty have been immensely important in uncovering experience of poverty One-shot tradition of qualitative analysis makes monitoring trend impossible Solution: Qualitative trend measurement
16. Measuring trends in social mobility President Obama vowed to “build new ladders of opportunity into the middle class” in his 2013 address Ways to move forward 1. Administrative data (i.e., IRS) 2. Adding intergenerational module to existing survey (e.g., ACS ,CPS, SIPP)
17. Developing local and regional poverty measures The SPM revolution in poverty measurement But we need to develop local SPM measures
18. A standardized, regularized protocol for monitoring labor market discrimination The rise of experiments: Laboratory, resume, and audit studies of labor market discrim- ination have revolutionized field But limited to one-shot studies Need standardized protocol administered at regular intervals Which types of discrimination are most prominent? Race, gender, motherhood status, poverty status, criminal record, sexual orientation, credit record Which types are becoming stronger or weaker?
19. An engaged ivory tower Major social problem of our time Engaged ivory tower Powerful union of science and action … a new smart war on poverty