1 / 20

J. C. Orr 1 , K. G. Caldeira 2 , K.E. Taylor 3 , and the OCMIP Group*

Simulate d A ir-Sea CO2 Fluxes in the P a cific: Multidimension a l S tatistical A nalysis of M odel P erformance. J. C. Orr 1 , K. G. Caldeira 2 , K.E. Taylor 3 , and the OCMIP Group* 1 LSCE/CEA/CNRS and IPSL (France) 2 L LNL Carbon and Climate Group 3 PCMDI/LLNL

evers
Download Presentation

J. C. Orr 1 , K. G. Caldeira 2 , K.E. Taylor 3 , and the OCMIP Group*

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. SimulatedAir-Sea CO2 Fluxes inthe Pacific: Multidimensional Statistical Analysis of Model Performance J. C. Orr 1, K. G. Caldeira 2, K.E. Taylor 3,and the OCMIP Group* 1LSCE/CEA/CNRS and IPSL (France) 2LLNL Carbon and Climate Group 3PCMDI/LLNL http://www.ipsl.jussieu.fr/OCMIP AGU Ocean Sciences Meeting Presentation OS32I-09 Wed 13 Feb 2002

  2. OCMIP Group • AWI(Bremerhaven, Germany): R. Schlitzer, M.-F. Weirig • CSIRO(Hobart, Australia): R. Matear • IGCR/CCSR (Tokyo, Japan): Y. Yamanaka, A. Ishida • IPSL (LSCE, LODyC, Paris, France): J. Orr, P. Monfray, O. Aumont, J.-Cl.Dutay, P. Brockmann • LLNL(Livermore, CA, USA):K. Caldeira, M. Wickett • MIT(Boston, USA): M. Follows, J. Marshall • MPIM (Max Planck Institut fuer Meteorologie—Hamburg, Germany): E. Maier-Reimer • NCAR (Boulder, USA): S. Doney, K. Lindsay, M. Hecht • NERSC (Bergen, Norway): H. Drange, Y. Gao • PIUB (Bern, Switzerland): F. Joos, K. Plattner • PRINCEton (Princeton, USA): J. Sarmiento, A. Gnanadesikan, R. Slater, R. Key • SOC (Southampton Oceanography Centre/Hadley Center, UK): I. Totterdell, A. Yool • UL (University of Liege/University Catholique de Louvain, Belgium): A. Mouchet, E. Deleersnyder, J.-M. Campin • PMEL/NOAA (Seattle, USA): J. Bullister, C. Sabine • PSU (Penn. State, USA): R. Najjar, F. Louanchi • UCLA (Los Angeles, USA): N. Gruber, X. Jin

  3. OCMIP-2 Model Simulations • Tracers • CFC-11 and CFC-12 • C-14 (Natural and Bomb Components) • He-3 • Carbon • Past (Preindustrial: No Biology, Common Biology) • Historical (Followed observed atmospheric CO2) • Future (IPCC IS92a and S650 until 2300) • Sequestration (7 sites, 3 depths, 2 scenarios)

  4. Sea-Air CO2 Flux in 1995: Data vs. Model mean, σ, Range (mol m-2 yr-1)

  5. Taylor Diagram: Global, Seasonal, Sea-Air CO2 Flux Map

  6. Pacific Regional Sea-Air CO2 Fluxes: Space-Time Comparison Equatorial Pacific: 22oS-22oN North Pacific: 22oN-70oN

  7. Pacific Sea-Air CO2 Flux in 1995 (Zonal Integral, Annual Mean, Pg C yr-1 deg-1)

  8. North PacificAnnual Mean Sea-Air CO2 Flux in 1995 (mol m-2 yr-1)

  9. Eq. PacificAnnual Mean Sea-Air CO2 Flux in 1995 (mol m-2 yr-1)

  10. PacificSeasonal Anomalyof Zonal Mean Sea-Air CO2 Flux in 1995 (mol m-2 yr-1)

  11. Conclusions: Pacific Sea-Air CO2 Fluxes • Models vs. data estimates of sea-air CO2 fluxes in the Pacific: • Poor agreement • Spatial anomaly (longitudinal variability) • Seasonal anomaly map (seasonal variability) • Better agreement (N. Pacific, Tropical Pacific) • Zonal mean (latitudinal variability) • Data-based estimates (Takahashi et al.): • North Pacific: largest variability; seasonality dominates • Tropical Pacific: latitudinal, longitudinal, seasonal variability contribute equally • South Pacific: minor latitudinal variability (models exhibit substantially larger contribution, which is unusual) • Taylor Diagram*: merits further use in model-data comparison and model development *Taylor, K. E., J. Geophys. Res., 106, D7, 7183-7192, 2001

  12. South PacificAnnual Mean Sea-Air CO2 Flux in 1995 (mol m-2 yr-1)

  13. PacificSeasonal Zonal Integral Sea-Air CO2 Flux in 1995 (Pg C yr-1 deg-1)

  14. PacificSeasonalZonal Mean Sea-Air CO2 Flux in 1995(mol m-2 yr-1)

  15. Air-Sea CO2 Flux by Component:Zonal Integral(Pg C yr-1 deg-1)

  16. Conclusions: Taylor Diagram • Taylor* Diagram: graphical evaluation of 5 global summary statistics (σdata,σmodel, r, R.M.S., Bias) • rapid, intuitive first look useful in evaluating ocean as well as atmospheric models *Taylor, K. E., J. Geophys. Res., 106, D7, 7183-7192, 2001

  17. Basis for Taylor Diagram* Key relationship: • Standard deviations (ref., model) • Correlation Coefficient R: • Centered Pattern RMS error: • Overall Bias: Law of Cosines: *Taylor, K.E., J. Geophys. Res., 106, D7, 7183-7192, 2001

  18. Some Objective Summary Statistics • Standard deviation (ref., model) • Correlation Coefficient R: • Centered Pattern RMS error: • Overall Bias:

  19. OCMIP: Objectives • Accelerate Model Improvement Provide Infrastructure for International Collaboration • Forum • Benchmarks • Model Output Archive • Analysis Tools • Provide Constraints • Ocean Carbon Uptake (Loss) • Global Carbon Cycle

  20. Model Differences

More Related