Atiq Kainan Ahmed Senior Social Scientist, ADPC. Email: atiqka@adpc

1. Livelihoods Adaptation to Climate Change:Adaptive Learning Experiences of Managing Climatic Extremes in Agriculture Sector Atiq Kainan Ahmed Senior Social Scientist, ADPC. Email: atiqka@adpc.net

2. Increasing frequency, intensity and variability of droughts, floods, tropical storms Sea level rise and salt water intrusion Agriculture will be the most affected sector Bangladesh Case Projected trends

3. Drought Prone Areas

4. One can, actually, visualize the situation …….

5. High evaporation rate and temperature Dried up canals and water bodies High agricultural drought and dryness Affected stages of agricultural crops

6. Consequences/impacts Agriculture/crops failure >> fallow land Loss of livelihoods Livestock loss Environmental degradation Deterioration of water quality/fisheries

7. Future Climate Risk: Drought Spells

8. Livelihoods Adaptation Process

9. LACC objectives • Develop a methodology to transform climate change impact modelling into livelihood adaptation practices • Strengthen institutional structures to handle climate change adaptation • Initiate and facilitate the field testing with farmers of livelihood adaptation strategies

10. Designing adaptation strategy Testing adaptation options Stakeholder engagement and feedback Assessing future climaterisks Assessing current vulnerability Key strategy

11. Assessing current vulnerability

12. Local perceptions –1On climate variability • Current climate is behaving differently from the past years. The past climate condition was better (says the elderly people) . • Seasonal cycle (locally called rhituchakra) has changed from the past. Where it used to be 6 distinct seasons in the past but now its almost 3 or 4 seasons observed distinctly in a year. • Climatic conditions have changed due to the God’s will (khodar ichay) and the cure – the rainfall is in the God’s hand (akasher pani allar haatey). • The average temperature in the area has changed. People feel that summer time heat increased and the winter has become shorter and in some winter days cold became severe.

13. Local perceptions –2 On drought situation • People’s perceptions on drought are equated to: • dryness (locally known as shukna), • consecutive non-rainy days (locally known as ana-bristi), • Drought is more frequent now than before. • Prevalence of pest and disease incidence increased and largely associated with HYV rice. • With adoption of HYV rice the production increased but due to climatic variability adverse impact of drought causes yield reduction. • Vegetable and fruits (Mango varieties) remain affected due to variations in rain, temperature and drought situations.

14. Risks and vulnerabilitiesBoth types of factors: climatic & non-climatic factors emerged. Climatic Non-climatic

15. ‘Non’ or ‘least’ vulnerable groups Large businessmen Large farmers Profiling of livelihood groups Most vulnerable groups Wage labourers Small & marginalfarmers Fishers Petty traders/ businessmen

16. Assets portfolio evaluated(local indicators used) Innovative asset evaluation scoring system developed

17. Small & marginal farmers (32.43%) • Climatic factors: low rainfall, high evaporation rate, dryness, high temperature, and erraticity of the above • Crop yield reduction • Electricity failure (for irrigation supply) • Unavailability of surface water storage facilities (e.g. khari, ponds) • Unavailability of natural water bodies (e.g. canals, rivers) • Pest infestation • Undulation of land • Unavailability of DTW • Insufficient irrigation supply systems (mostly tertiary canals) • Unavailability of supplementary irrigation facilities • High price of agricultural inputs • Tenancy related complexities • Inability to cultivate 'boro' crop

18. Wage labourers (41.10%) • Climatic factors: high temperature/heat (summer months), cold (during winter months) • Lack of healthcare facilities • Lack of cash/savings • Lack (ownership) of cultivable land • Food shortage • Unavailability of work during 'boro' season • Insufficient labour opportunities during 'aus‘ and ‘rabi’ season • Low female employment opportunities • Commuting problems • Seasonal migration(usually failed ones) • Livestock/poultry diseases/sufferings/loss • Poor wage rate • Tenancy, share and wage related complexities

19. Petty traders/businessmen (6.81%) • Limited number of buyers in the market • Lack of cash/savings • Limited ownership of sufficient cultivable land • Credit complexities (high interest rate, access etc.) • Lack of non-farm employment opportunities • Low market price • Commuting problems

20. Fishers (fishermen/fish traders/fishing labours) 0.35% • Climatic factors: low rainfall, high evaporation rate, high temperature • Declining natural water bodies (rivers and canals) • Declining number of pond/kharies • Declining natural fish species • Limited opportunities for fishing (fish markets, storage facilities etc.) • Difficulties in getting lease for fishing of khas (public) water bodies • Credit complexities (high interest rate, access etc.)

21. ‘Least’ vulnerable groups(Large farmers and Large businessmen) 6.88% + • Severe and consecutive droughts • Local political influences/situation • Prolong electricity failure • Fall of external markets (e.g. failure in selling products in other districts) • Transportation problems • High price of agricultural machineries and inputs in external markets • Timely availability of agricultural inputs in the local market • Access to better lands • Access to lands near better sources of water retaining facilities • Having buffer from the T-Aman season • Ability to arrange additional enhanced irrigation facilities • Tenancy arrangements (i.e. ability to lease out lands) • Better economic conditions allow them to go for alternative crops, timely agricultural actions and inputs including labour etc.

22. Comparative asset composition Non-irrigated areas Irrigated areas

23. Vulnerability context

24. Adaptation options

25. Designing adaptation options Develop viable Adaptation options Collate indigenous, local and research based adaptation options Synthesize into potentially suitable adaptation options for location specific conditions Scientific validation of adaptation options Local prioritization/selection of adaptation options for field testing

26. Adaptive responses-1(Traditional measures) Pond/khari ayel (bundh) raising Tillage, mulching(shedding)

27. Only the adjacent lands got benefited from kharies while the farthest lands remain uncultivated due to lack of water.

28. Adaptive responses-2(State supported modern practices) Tank water supply DTW Use of paid irrigation

29. Adaptive responses-3(Alternative/selective) Mango Home gardening Dual purpose (optimal use of water & plant) Livestock and birds (that consume less water)

30. Adaptive responses-4(Domestic practices) Use of traditional means and sources Load sharing

31. Agricultural adaptive practices • Pond (and khari) water irrigation • DTW/STW water irrigation • Beel, canals and rivers water irrigation • Tillage • Mulching • Use of green manure/pesticide use • Alternate crops (more tolerant ones) • Selection of rice varieties • Alternative livestock/birds • Short duration fish culture (short term) Agricultural adaptations • Erosion of (use) savings • Credit (NGO-GO sources) • Loan (relatives or informal sources) • Out migration (cyclical) • Multiple livelihood activities • Change of occupations • Mortgage properties Socio-economic adaptations

32. Typology of agricultural adaptations • Agronomic management • Water harvesting and exploitation • 3. Water Use efficiency

33. 4. Crop intensification and diversification 5. Alternate enterprises 6. Post harvest practices

34. Complementary adaptation measures • Physical adaptive measures • Livelihood enhancement • Income diversification • Strengthening institutional structures • Policy formulation • Financial mechanisms for risk transfer • Awareness creation & advocacy

35. Field demonstration of prioritized adaptation options

37. Institutions(GoB)

38. Institutions(NGOs and CBOs)

39. DAE - DRM Core Group DMB NTIWG DMB, DAE, BMD, DRR, LI, DoE District Deputy Director District DMC Upazilla DMC National expert advisory group UTIWG Upazilla Ag. Officer Union DMC Sub-Assistant Ag. Officer LMO Community/Farmer Groups/Associations/Local Facilitation Team Strengthening Institutional set-up

40. Community mobilizations • Community awareness raising • Farmers groups mobilization • Planning, action and monitoring demonstrations on farmers fields • Capacity building and training sessions • Community Risk reduction planning

41. Designing adaptation strategy Testing adaptation options Stakeholder engagement and feedback Assessing future climaterisks Assessing current vulnerability Gradual systematic up-scalling of livelihoods adaptations

42. Providing climate outlook Interpreting global climate outlook into local outlook Translating local climate outlook into impact scenarios Communication of response options/ feedback Incorporation of End-to-end climate information generation and application system

43. Community level forecast information sharing End-to-end early warning facilitation to the community

44. Sharing with the agency/ institutional representatives – those who work for the community

45. Interpretation and action Agency notification Community notification Response operations Forecasting Adaptive Learning and Capacity Building to interpretprobabilistic forecast, prepare impact outlooks, communicate impact outlooks with response options to enhance preparedness

46. Capacity Building • Climate risk and impact analysis • climate risk analysis methods • climate change impacts • viable adaptation options ii) Climate forecast applications for drought mitigation • introduction to forecast products • Application of weather and climate forecast products

47. Some key lessons • Development, DRR and CCA are integrated issues at the local level • Moving towards adaptation requires a livelihoods perspective • An “adaptive learning environment” is essential for building adaptive capacity at community level as well as institutional level. • CFA/EWS are a good entry points for managing climatic extremes • Value indigenous/local knowledge ; we need to build on those, and integrate it with external “know hows”

48. Hazards are increasing Adaptive capacity is not increasing Vulnerable Coping range Vulnerable

49. Climate shock Need for up-scaling adaptive capacity Vulnerable Adaptation Coping range Vulnerable

50. Climate shock Vulnerable Time Adaptation Coping range Vulnerable “Gradual increase “in adaptive capacity is needed