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Climate Outlook – November 2011

Climate Outlook – November 2011. Weak/moderate La Nina continues, will likely persist to Jan or Feb 2012. SST forecast and Obs for Recently Completed Season. ASO 2011 SST forecast From Jul. Correlation ( w.r.t . map average) Glob 0.67 Trop 0.72 Uncentered correlation

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Climate Outlook – November 2011

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  1. Climate Outlook – November 2011 Weak/moderate La Nina continues, will likely persist to Jan or Feb 2012

  2. SST forecast and Obs for Recently Completed Season ASO 2011 SST forecast From Jul Correlation (w.r.t. map average) Glob 0.67 Trop 0.72 Uncentered correlation (w.r.t. clim average): Glob 0.69 Trop 0.72 ASO 2011 SST obs anom (deg C)

  3. SST and Precipitation Obs for Recently Completed Season ASO 2011 SST obs anom (deg C) warm cold ASO 2011 precip anom (mm/day) wet dry

  4. Verification of Most Recent Season Precipitation Forecast ASO 2011 precip tercile categ obs Verification: G: globe T: tropics this (mean forcst 1997→) rpss: G-0.019 (0.010) T 0.002 (0.017) Rate of Return: G 0.nan (0.009) T 0.nan (0.017) Heidke skill: G 0.007 (0.046) T-0.004 (0.074) GROC: G 0.526 (0.543) T 0.533 (0.569) ASO 2011 precip probab forecast from mid-Jul

  5. Verification of Most Recent Season Temperature Forecast ASO 2011 temp tercile categ obs Verification: G: globe T: tropics this (mean forcst 1997→) rpss: G 0.034(0.115) T-0.071 (0.174) Rate of Return: G 0.036 (0.111) T-0.051 (0.178) Heidke skill: G 0.128 (0.297) T-0.066 (0.397) GROC: G 0.567 (0.581) T 0.526 (0.630) ASO 2011 temp probab forecast from mid-Jul

  6. Last week’s SST anomaly | | | | | | | | | | | -----------------------------------------------------------------------------

  7. Stronger El Niño El Nino Oct La Nina StrongerLa Niña

  8. * * * * * * * * * * * Outgoing Longwave Radiation Anomalies 5N – 5S Climate Prediction Center NCEP very strong La Nina signature in atmosphere

  9. Stronger La Niña very strong ** ******** ******* *** Stronger El Niño

  10. mid-Aug

  11. mid-Sep

  12. mid-Oct

  13. mid-Nov

  14. Nov 2009 Nov 2010 Nov 2011 Mildly enhanced trades persist Thermocline depth below average in east-central part of basin ENSO state: weak (+) La Nina

  15. Recent phase and strength of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) mid- Oct 2011 mid- Nov 2011 Strong Weak/Moderate MJO MJO + + Weak(+) La Nina Weak(+) La Nina = = Weak La Nina Weak(+) La Nina

  16. from October

  17. from November

  18. November 2011 SST forecasts (plus and minus uncertainty scenarios at right) PLUS MEAN MINUS

  19. Tropical Cyclone ForecastsNovember 2011 NTC = Number of Tropical Cyclones ACE = Accumulated Cyclone Energy

  20. Six IRI focus areas: 12-year skill of IRI precipitation forecasts RPSS GROC RPSS GROC score R G R G R G R G R G R G

  21. This ppt file is available to anyone on the shared drive: ……./tonyb/fcstbrifingmonyr or ……/tonyb/iri_html /fctbriefingmonyr

  22. Old one (but Indonesia may not be in right position)

  23. New one

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