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Country Analysis

Country Analysis. Mode of Analysis. View country as a unit much like a firm with goals, comparative advantages and measurable outcomes. More complicated as the goals are less obvious, constituencies more varied, and decision making less clear.

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Country Analysis

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  1. Country Analysis

  2. Mode of Analysis • View country as a unit much like a firm with goals, comparative advantages and measurable outcomes. • More complicated as the goals are less obvious, constituencies more varied, and decision making less clear. • Examine past & present and project into the future. • Must choose time frame of analysis to guide focus.

  3. No perfect system for describing a country’s situation.This system offers a straight-forward, easily comparable framework.   Country-level approach may also be questioned. Any country has many individual actors which will each have their own objectives, strategies and performance measures. 

  4. Three Parts Strategy Context Performance

  5. Strategy Vision - Overall view of society Goals Policies

  6. Vision Guiding vision of the country as a place at the very longest term level.

  7. Goals: What and why? Economic Goals Political Goals Social Goals

  8. Economic Policies • Economic Policies: Obviously of Greatest Interest Dimensions of Analysis • Free Market Implementation vs. Government Control • Externally Oriented vs. Internally Oriented • Producer Oriented vs. Consumer Oriented

  9. Economic Policies Fiscal Policies: Quantity of Government Spending as a share of GDP Strategy of Tax Collection Budget Deficits Monetary Policies Inflation Targets Exchange Rate Policy Income Policies Minimum Wage

  10. Educational Policies  Foreign Trade and Investment Tariffs and Capital Controls Export Industry Policies  Attract FDI Industrial Policies  Targeted Industries : Fiscal/tax subsidies Antitrust Regulatory Policies

  11. Noneconomic Policies • Social Policies • Population Policies • Crime Policies •  National Security Policies • Defense Spending • Diplomacy & Alliances • Political Reform Policies

  12. Context Context includes the constraints on policy actions and the resources available to the country. Dimensions of Analysis •  Domestic vs. International Constraints • Human vs Natural Resources

  13. Context • Resources • Natural Resources • Capital Resources • Human Capital Resources • Social Resources • Players of the Game • Firms: Corporate Sector • Government Actors • Non-state Actors • Rules of the Game • Formal Rules  • Informal Rules • International Dimension

  14. Context • Resources • The Game • Rules of the Game • Players • International Context

  15. Resources • Natural Resources • Capital Resources • Human Capital Resources • Social Resources

  16. The game • Players of the Game • Firms: Corporate Sector • Government Actors • Non-state Actors • Rules of the Game • Formal Rules  • Informal Rules

  17. The International Dimension

  18. Performance Indicators • Before the analysis, we should choose which is the scope in terms of time. • Long-Term • Medium-Term • Short-Term • Purpose will drive the choice of scope. Scope will drive the choice of performance indicators.

  19. Short-term Indicators • Financial Market & Exchange Rate Volatility •  Balance of Payments (Trade Balance and Investment Flows) • Likelihood of Financial Crisis • Unemployment & Business Cycles • Interest Rates

  20. Medium Term Indicators • Inflation Rates  & Longer Term Interest Rates • Prospects for Medium Term Economic Growth • Investment & R & D as Share of GDP • Historical Returns on Capital  • stock returns,  • 5 Year ICOR - Inflation Adjusted GDP Growth Rate/Investment%

  21. Long Term Indicators • Societal Restructuring - Qualitative • Demographic  Changes • Sectoral Reform (Liberalization/Nationalization) • Infrastructure Modernization • Institutional Political Changes

  22. Diagnoses • If performance has not captured goals, analysis might offer some additional information about what sort of reasons may have lead to the short-comings.

  23. Synthesis • Construct a story that uses the different elements to describe the situation faced by the country.

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