Ms. Tshilidzi Ramuedzisi Chief Director: Energy Planning

1. Integrated Energy Plan: Introduction and Background Ms. Tshilidzi Ramuedzisi Chief Director: Energy Planning

2. CONTENTS • Scope and context of IEP • IEP Governance Structure • IEP Process and Methodology • Progress to Date and Way Forward

3. Integrated Energy Plan

4. What does IEP seek to achieve? Energy security Access to energy Climate change (Clean energy) Inform regulation of the sector Energy sector Diversity of supply Demand management Safety Minimise Cost of cost of energy

5. IEP Governance Structure

6. IEP Governance Structure

7. IEP Governance Structure

8. IEP Methodology • Defines process that will be followed in development of IEP • Ensures transparency of process to improve repeatability and enhancement • Clarifies distinction between conceptual and technical processes • Scenario-Based Methodology • Enables systematic and structured approach to consideration of complex and competing objectives • Forces one to consider only those key variables which have the most significant impact • Structured approach to testing various policy options, often with competing objectives

9. National Objectives DoE Mandate PROBLEM FORMULATION TECHNICAL PROCESS Develop Reference Energy System and Energy Demand Model Key Policy Question Define Plausible Futures Model Base Case Define Policy Options Model Test Cases • Within each Plausible Future: • Project Demand • Test ‘Base Case’ • Test ‘Test Cases’ Evaluate Outcomes Recommendations Model Output/Results

10. Defining of Plausible Futures • Premised on the principle that the future is unknown and an indeterminate set of futures can unfold • Allows focus on those factors that affect the economy which can have most significant impact on the realisation of objectives • The demand trajectory will be shaped by the assumptions which describe particular future • Objective is to develop plan which is robust or flexible enough for different pictures of the future

11. Plausible Futures Factors influenced by Global Environment • Plausible Future 1 • Constrained Global Environment • Unfavourable Socio-Economic Development • Plausible Future 2 • Constrained Global Environment • Favourable Socio-Economic Development • Plausible Future 4 • Constrained Global Environment • Unfavourable Socio-Economic Development • Plausible Future 3 • Relaxed Global Environment • Favourable Socio-Economic Development Socio-Economic Factors

12. Key Driving ForcesSocio-Economic Factors ILLUSTRATION

13. Key Driving ForcesGlobal Environment ILLUSTRATION

14. Defining Policy Options to be tested • Energy planning is about making choices, often between imperatives with competing objectives • Classification of policies • Existing and implemented • Approved but not yet implemented or effected • New and future policies to be considered • Choosing the most appropriate set of policy options to achieve objectives

15. NEXT STEPS

16. THANK YOU