An integrated hurricane prediction and response system that allows:

1. Vision for CHPR • Anintegrated hurricane prediction and response system that allows: • Strategic planning (weeks): energy, transportation, supply chains, financial, agriculture, water resources management, … • Landfall preparation (days): emergency managers, local businesses, offshore activities, communities, individuals, … • Tactical response (hours): e.g., emergency managers, power, communications, … CHPR

2. CHPR Objectives • Establish a collaborative environment for conducting integrated research and testing new ideas • Understand limits of predictability of tropical cyclone genesis, intensity and rapid intensity change on timescales of hours to weeks • Innovative approaches to prediction of patterns of extreme winds, rain, storm surge, inland flooding, and tornadoes at landfall • Improve understanding of the socioeconomic impacts of hurricanes in relation to human behavior and public communication of risk • Stimulate the transfer of new knowledge and technology to operational and decision making practice • Diversity-rich education and outreach for the next-generation of hurricane forecasters, societal leaders, and coastal residents • Establish a collaborative environment for conducting integrated research and testing new ideas • Understand limits of predictability of tropical cyclone genesis, intensity and rapid intensity change on timescales of hours to weeks • Innovative approaches to prediction of patterns of extreme winds, rain, storm surge, inland flooding, and tornadoes at landfall • Improve understanding of the socioeconomic impacts of hurricanes in relation to human behavior and public communication of risk • Stimulate the transfer of new knowledge and technology to operational and decision making practice • Diversity-rich education and outreach for the next-generation of hurricane forecasters, societal leaders, and coastal residents CHPR

3. A New Paradigm for Hurricane Prediction Understanding predictability and improving prediction Ensemble high-res. coupled atmos-wave-ocean model predictions of rapid intensity change Global model predictions of genesis and track weeks in advance New data assimilation tech Forecast of extreme winds, rain, storm surge and floods Statistical rendering to reduce model systematic error Forecasts of landfall impacts using sectoral impact models

4. TS Erin 8/16 landfall TX Optimized probabilistic forecasts hrs-weeks for decision making August 14, 2007 Hurricane Dean 8/22 landfall MX Cat 5 Days

5. Observed Hurricane Ike High-resolution (1.3km) model forecast of Hurricane Ike

7. UM Mini-ensemble forecast of Hurricane Ike Operational Hurricane UMCM GFS

11. Strong data assimilation team among partners • Atmosphere • NCAR WRF variational methods (3DVar, 4DVar) • OU, NCAR, UW, UM Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) • New Hybrid VAR/EnKF approach • Ocean • UM/NRL variational and ensemble assimilation of ocean data • Coupled Model • New DA in fully coupled models • Optimal Targeting of a/c: radar, drops., & ocn. soundings • Land-based radars • Satellite • Use the above tools for sensitivity and predictability studies & to design future targeting strategies Data Assimilation Strategies CHPR