1 / 16

Sea Level Rise: Infrastructure Analysis Tools and Impact Assessment

Sea Level Rise: Infrastructure Analysis Tools and Impact Assessment. David Judi, Los Alamos National Laboratory Workshop on Sea Level Rise: Science, Prediction, and Stakeholder Planning May 17-18, 2010 San Diego, CA. Energy & Infrastructure Analysis.

eytan
Download Presentation

Sea Level Rise: Infrastructure Analysis Tools and Impact Assessment

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Sea Level Rise: Infrastructure Analysis Tools and Impact Assessment David Judi, Los Alamos National Laboratory Workshop on Sea Level Rise: Science, Prediction, and Stakeholder Planning May 17-18, 2010 San Diego, CA

  2. Energy & Infrastructure Analysis • Infrastructure Interdependency Modeling and Simulation • Examines how infrastructure systems interact with one another and how disruptions in one infrastructure can propagate among infrastructures • Natural and terroristic events • Tools developed for varying levels of fidelity

  3. Multi-Hazard Infrastructure Impact Assessment (MHIIA) • Flood Hazard Models • One-dimensional models • Two-dimensional models • Cellular Automata (CA) • Step up from “Naïve” • Existing inundation maps • E.g., FEMA, NOAA/NWS Hazard Events/Modeling • IND • Earthquake • Flood • Chem/Bio • Etc.

  4. Multi-Hazard Infrastructure Impact Assessment (MHIIA) Secondary Effects (Infrastructure Models) Direct Effects (Fragility) Hazard Events/Modeling Extraction of assets from many sectors and mapping of damage probability very quick • Electric power • Water • Economy • Telecomm • Public health • Etc. • IND • Earthquake • Flood • Chem/Bio • Etc. • Infrastructure databases • Fragility curves

  5. Modeling Simulating Analyzing Multiple Interdependent Infrastructures Infrastructure Secondary Impact Analysis Interdependency Environment for Infrastructure Simulation Systems (IEISS)- A Flexible & Extendible Software Frameworkdesigned for: • Objective – identify and understand interdependencies • Importance – study complex, emergent, cascading behaviors • Value – understanding system behavior; capturing cascading effects; analyzing “what-if” scenarios

  6. Case Study: Bay Area Sea Level Rise • Inundation Event • USGS inundation map (Knowles 2008, used in Heberger et al. 2009) • Sea level rise at 0, 50, and 100 centimeters using MSL and 100-yr event • Infrastructure Impact Assessment • Infrastructure Identification • MHIIA (Electric power, hospitals, wastewater facilities) • Cascading Impact • IEISS (Electric power only) • Questions: • How many substations are inundated and what are the impacts (e.g., outage area and population)? • How many hospitals and wastewater facilities are inundated and what are their capacities?

  7. Case Study: Electric Power Infrastructure Impacts Mean Sea Level • Current condition 100-yr Flood Event • 69 Substations inundated • Concentration along SW side of bay

  8. Case Study: Electric Power Infrastructure Impacts Mean Sea Level • 8 substations 100-yr Flood Event • 95 substations inundated (26 additional) • Concentration remains along SW side of bay • Some along east side

  9. Case Study: Electric Power Infrastructure Impacts Mean Sea Level • 20 substations • Mostly along SW side of bay (dense population) 100-yr Flood Event • 128 substations inundated (59 additional compare to no SLR) • Concentration remains along SW side of bay

  10. Case Study: Electric Power Infrastructure Impacts

  11. Case Study: Wastewater and Hospital Impacts Mean Sea Level • Current condition 100-yr Flood Event • 1 hospital • 10 wastewater facilities

  12. Case Study: Wastewater and Hospital Impacts Mean Sea Level • No hospitals • 1 wastewater facility 100-yr Flood Event • 1 hospital (no change) • 14 wastewater facilities (4 additional)

  13. Case Study: Wastewater and Hospital Impacts Mean Sea Level • No hospitals • 2 wastewater facilities 100-yr Flood Event • 1 hospital (no change) • 19 wastewater facilities (9 more than no SLR)

  14. Case Study: Wastewater and Hospital Impacts

  15. Conclusions • Inundation related infrastructure impacts from sea level rise alone are minimal • Flood events on top of sea level rise must be considered • Upstream tributary impacts should be investigated • Accountancy of changing morphology due to sea level rise induced erosion • Framework can be used in planning • Many scenarios quickly for many sectors • Local to regional scale

  16. Contact Information David JudiLos Alamos National Laboratorydjudi@lanl.gov Tim McphersonLos Alamos National Laboratorytmac@lanl.gov Jim DoyleLos Alamos National Laboratoryjcd@lanl.gov

More Related