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Analysis of Capacity Demand Curve for the Office of the Massachusetts Attorney General

Analysis of Capacity Demand Curve for the Office of the Massachusetts Attorney General. Mar. 12 th – 13 th , 2014. Prepared By: Randell Johnson Andrew Bachert Energy Exemplar. ISO-NE Curve similar to other markets. Criteria for Revised MA AGO Curve:.

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Analysis of Capacity Demand Curve for the Office of the Massachusetts Attorney General

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  1. Analysis of Capacity Demand Curve for the Office of the Massachusetts Attorney General Mar. 12th – 13th, 2014 Prepared By: Randell Johnson Andrew Bachert Energy Exemplar MA AGO

  2. ISO-NE Curve similar to other markets MA AGO

  3. Criteria for Revised MA AGO Curve: • 1. Cap is set at 1.6x Net Cone and is between 1.5 and 2.0 criteria of Brattle • 2. Cap ends 97.2% NICR which meets the 1-in-5 LOLE as per ISO-NE minimum requirement • 3. Kink at 100% NICR set at 115% and meets LOLE 1-in-10 • 4. A foot of 108% of NICR MA AGO Source: Brattle Analysis

  4. Calculated 1-in-10 LOLE for Revised MA AGO Curve 160 PLEXOS Simulations of High Level ISO-NE Control Area Model Results: NICR = 33,855 MW LOLE ~ 0.1 - Simulated load risk in calculating LOLE - Simulated multiple capacity levels MA AGO

  5. PLEXOS calculation of average load weighted cost of lost load PLEXOS calculation of average load weighted LOLE • System LOLE degrades rapidly below ICR • Reviewed literature for VOLL and • picked a assumption for VOLL Assumption: VOLL = $20,000/MWh MA AGO

  6. Example Path MA AGO

  7. Assumptions: Net Cone = 11.08 $/kW-m VOLL = $20,000/MWh Energy Exemplar New England Dataset MA AGO

  8. Recommendations of Future Capacity Demand Curve • Consider a 20 year outlook for development of Capacity Demand Curve shape • Consider least cost constrained optimization of short run and long run marginal costs including minimization of cost of lost load • Consider consumer cost metrics such as cost of lost load • Run multiple scenarios of technologies, demands, fuel prices, and possibly others along with historical market analysis and allow the optimization to deactivate units if necessary for least cost system development • Use a stakeholder driven process for the above MA AGO

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