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Climate Change in Mekong River Basin and Hypothetical Impacts on Water Related Sectors:

Climate Change in Mekong River Basin and Hypothetical Impacts on Water Related Sectors: AS07 Preliminary finding and future study direction Suppakorn Chinvanno Southeast Asia START Regional Center Old SWU Pathumwan 5 Building, 5 th Floor Chulalongkorn University

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Climate Change in Mekong River Basin and Hypothetical Impacts on Water Related Sectors:

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  1. Climate Change in Mekong River Basin and Hypothetical Impacts on Water Related Sectors: AS07 Preliminary finding and future study direction Suppakorn Chinvanno Southeast Asia START Regional Center Old SWU Pathumwan 5 Building, 5th Floor Chulalongkorn University Henri Dunant Rd., Bangkok 10330

  2. Agenda • Study of Climate Change in Mekong River Region • Output from Regional Climate Modeling • Impact of Climate Change in Mekong Region: Future Precipitation • Climate Change Impacts on Water Related Sectors: Mekong Region • Hypothetical Conclusion on • Agriculture • Water Supply • Human Settlement & Urbanization • Natural Wetland • Future Study: Framework & Direction

  3. Study of Climate Change in Mekong River Region China The study of climate change in Mekong River Basin will base on scenarios of GHG in earth atmosphere, particularly - CO2 This study is based on 2xCO2, scenario and will also include 1.5xCO2 scenario in the future. Viet Nam Myanmar Laos Thailand Cambodia Mekong River Basin

  4. Study of Climate Change in Mekong River Region Regional Climate Change Study: Modeling Approach Atmospheric Research Climate Modeling • Regional climate model used: Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) • The output resolution was set at 14 km. Stretched coordinate system for CCAM modeling of the Mekong basin

  5. Output from CCAM Regional Climate Model: Changes in rainfall throughout the Mekong region

  6. Impact of Climate Change in Mekong Region: Future Precipitation Summary of CC Impact on Precipitation by Landform • Lancang Basin - less rainfall throughout the year by 20%

  7. Impact of Climate Change in Mekong Region: Future Precipitation Summary of CC Impact on Precipitation by Landform • Northern Highland • Significantly increase of rain at the latter part of rainy season

  8. Impact of Climate Change in Mekong Region: Future Precipitation Summary of CC Impact on Precipitation by Landform • Korat Plateau– Season change. • Slightly shorter but more intense toward the end of rainy season • Longer and dryer dry season

  9. Impact of Climate Change in Mekong Region: Future Precipitation Summary of CC Impact on Precipitation by Landform • Eastern Highland– Season change • Longer and dryer dry season • Shorter and wetter rainy season

  10. Impact of Climate Change in Mekong Region: Future Precipitation Summary of CC Impact on Precipitation by Landform • Lowland– Change in season pattern • Longer and dryer dry season • Shorter and wetter rainy season

  11. Climate Change Impacts on Water Related Sectors: Mekong Region • CC Impacts on 4 major water related sectors: • hypothetical conclusion • Agriculture(impact on rainfed rice cultivation) • Water Supply(impact on water quantity/quality) • Human Settlement and Urbanization(impact on flood/infrastructure) • Natural Wetland(impact on biodiversity)

  12. Climate Change Impacts on Water Related Sectors: Mekong Region Agriculture • Rainfed agriculture in Lancang landform will be highly affected by total reduction in precipitation. • Impact on rain-fed rice cultivation in most part of lower Mekong region from seasonal shift and change in rainfall pattern.

  13. Climate Change Impacts on Water Related Sectors: Mekong Region Water Supply • Significant reduction in water supply in upper Mekong--Yunnan--but may be less erosion • Some water shortage in dry season in most southern landforms due to longer and dryer season • Deteriorated water quality--salinity, acidification, etc.-- in some areas due to reduced flushing during dry spells

  14. Climate Change Impacts on Water Related Sectors: Mekong Region Human Settlement and Urbanization • Potential for more intense and longer flood in Korat Plateau and Southern Lowland, especially in September and October

  15. Climate Change Impacts on Water Related Sectors: Mekong Region Natural Wetland • Possibility for drying-out of some wetlands in Lancang landform • Impact on migratory species caused by change in water regime in wetland due to the change in rainy season pattern. Possibility in most of lower part of Mekong region. • Treat to wild fish stock and capture fishery, especially in the Korat Plateau and southern Lowlands.

  16. Future Study: Framework & Direction Problem Definition (e.g. potential climatic variations, historical events) Project Scoping (e.g. study area, sectors, scenarios) Impact Assessment (integrated impacts analysis) Adaptation Assessment (options, adaptive capacity) Integrated Vulnerability Assessment Adaptation Strategies to Reduce Vulnerability

  17. Future Study: Framework & Direction Impact of climate change on precipitation and downstream effect on water resources • Possible change in the future rainfall pattern and shifting of the season • Impact on future runoff and river flow from the future rainfall pattern • Impact on future frequency, length and magnitude of flood • Impact on future frequency, length and magnitude of drought

  18. Future Study: Framework & Direction Regional hydrology study – modeling approach: SEA BASINS SEA BASINS: VIC Hydrological Model for Mekong Basin Drainage Soil Land Cover Elevation

  19. Future Study: Framework & Direction Regional hydrology study – modeling approach: SEA BASINS

  20. Future Study: Framework & Direction Regional hydrology study – modeling approach: SEA BASINS

  21. Future Study: Framework & Direction Agriculture • Use satellite image to determine rice field. • Then, use crop model – DSSAT to study rice yield under future climate scenarios. • Assess community vulnerability from the change of rice production – evaluate impact in terms of rice production as indicator of food intake for household and source of income. • Assessment to be done at the sub-basin level.

  22. Future Study: Framework & Direction Water Resources • Simulate the water profile from SEA-BASIN VIC model • Assess community vulnerability by evaluate the supply of water and match the usage pattern by various sectors in the Mekong River region, perhaps to use frame of MRC-WUP as guideline • Also study the impact of changing in water regime toward the salinity – particularly in NE of Thailand

  23. Future Study: Framework & Direction Human Settlement and Urbanization • Study the tendency of increasing of frequency and magnitude of flood in the region from climate variability. • Evaluate the vulnerability from the damage that future flood may cause – perhaps to use the frame and information from MRC-Flood Forum as guideline

  24. Future Study: Framework & Direction Aquatic Ecosystems • Study the impact of CC on the product and services from the ecosystems that community rely for their well-being: plan to focus on the habitat for migratory species, particularly fish which is captured for food • Assess community vulnerability from wild fish stock and capture fishery as this is main source of food intake for the household as well as source of income. • Assessment to be done at the sub-basin level

  25. Discussion Session Thank You

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