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STOPS Version 2.5: Enhancements, Recalibration, and Resources

Learn about the latest developments in STOPS Version 2.5, including enhancements, national recalibration, and other helpful resources. Discover how STOPS simplifies transit forecasting and improves accuracy. Join the STOPS community and stay updated on upcoming changes.

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STOPS Version 2.5: Enhancements, Recalibration, and Resources

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  1. Developments with STOPS Version 2.517th TRB Applications ConferenceJune 3, 2019Jeff Roux, FTAJim Ryan, FTABill Woodford, RSG

  2. Topics • STOPS Overview • STOPS v2.5 Enhancements • STOPS v2.5 National Recalibration • Other STOPS Resources • Coming Attractions

  3. STOPS Overview - How It Started • Streamlining of the FTA’s Capital Investment Grant (CIG) program • Simplified way for sponsors to predict ridership • Source of all FTA ridership-related ratings measures • Trips On Project  sTOPs • Trips on project by transit dependents (0-car households) • Change in total number of weekday transit trips • Change in miles of travel in autos • Promised in the 2012 Final Rule • Joint effort of FTA and RSG • Version 1.0 released in 2013 and periodic updates since then

  4. STOPS Overview – How It Works • Platform for transit ridership forecasting • ≈ The transit components of a regional model set • Trip-based and zone-based • Detailed, not “sketch” • Calibrated vs. national transit dataset and validated to FTA “Before-and-After” Studies • Refined using readily available local transit data

  5. STOPS Overview - How It Simplifies Forecasting • Standardizes and automates best practices in transit forecasting • Uses readily available data sets • CTPP (journey-to-work data) • GTFS (transit system supply) • MPO (highway times/distances and SE growth projections) • Local transit rider data (APCs, route counts, rider surveys) • Streamlines model development and validation • Requires relatively modest resources

  6. FTA CIG Program - # of Projects by Forecasting Method * Warrants and Core Capacity require demonstration of existing ridership & crowding levels (Core-Capacity); no forecasting

  7. STOPS Version 2.5 • Recent enhancements: • Better representation of walk access to/from transit system • Direct representation of fares • Direct specification of the full-fixed guideway setting • Improved PNR procedures • Additional results reporting • Recalibration

  8. Access to/from Transit • Original simplified approach: • Walk: Via airline connectors @ 3mph up to 1.0 miles • Drive: Via airline connectors @ 25mph • Issues with barriers (water features, mountains, freeways) • New enhanced capability (optional): • Walk access: Via user defined walk network @ 3mph up to 1.4 miles • Drive links: Via airline connectors @ MPO zone-to-zone travel speed

  9. Transit Fares • Original simplified approach: • No direct fare representation • Fare differentials represented with equivalent travel times (boarding penalties) • New enhanced capability (optional): • User-specified value-of-time • User-coded fare policy (boarding, transfer and zone-based) • Effect of fare included in path-building and mode choice

  10. Improved PNR Processes • Original approach: • Likelihood based on employment density and directness • Over-predicted PNR demand for projects in mid-sized cities • Revised approach: • Likelihood increases where: • Attraction areas have high transit shares for car owning HHs – and – • Transit travel times are competitive auto travel time times

  11. Results Reporting • New Reports: • On, offs, and leave-loads for by station/stop by “line” • Boardings by “immediate” access-mode for each station/stop (in addition to boardings by “home-end” access-mode) • Transferring trips by from/to “lines”

  12. Other Enhancements • Direct user control of all fixed guideway effects • Reduced computer memory requirements

  13. National Recalibration • Two stage process • Static calibration to match observed transit usage by: • Trip maker characteristics – purpose and auto ownership • Transit trip types – access modes, line-haul modes • Dynamic calibration to match transit usage after project opening: • Included recently completed projects from FTA Before and After Studies • Local STOPS implementation calibrated to pre-project condition • Applied to post-project schedules • Forecasted project ridership compared to actual results

  14. Sources of Rider Survey Data Static Calibration

  15. Sources of Before/After Rider Data Dynamic Validation

  16. National Recalibration Results Comparison of STOPS vs. Observed Ridership (Dynamic Test)

  17. Other STOPS Resources • GTFSed – GTFS editor • NTI Course: • Phoenix, AZ (June 25-27) - waitlist available • St. Paul, MN (Sep. 10-12) - registration open • FTA STOPS helpdesk: • Jeffrey.roux@dot.gov, 202-366-1806 • Technical support, over-the-shoulder review • Obtaining current program(s) and supporting data

  18. Coming Attractions • Changes to STOPS: • Supporting latest CTPP release • Ongoing addition of data from new project openings and recalibration as needed • Changes to how it is used: • Evaluating ridership impacts due to service changes and system redesigns • Assessing mobility benefits of new service plans and of completed projects f

  19. Conclusions • Users should begin to update applications to STOPS 2.50 • Other suggestions • Work closely with FTA staff to establish appropriate Fixed Guideway Settings • Make sure to calibrate your application to current year ridership • Engage FTA staff early and often to reduce opportunities for a surprise

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