1 / 7

Honors Precalculus Do Now:

Honors Precalculus Do Now:. Intro to Statistics An individual (in the US) gets tested for HIV and tests positive. The test is 99% accurate. In other words, there is a false positive rate of 1%. Given that 1 in 300 people in the US population has HIV,

ezhno
Download Presentation

Honors Precalculus Do Now:

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Honors Precalculus Do Now: Intro to Statistics An individual (in the US) gets tested for HIV and tests positive. The test is 99% accurate. In other words, there is a false positive rate of 1%. Given that 1 in 300 people in the US population has HIV, What is the probability that the individual who tested positive, actually has HIV? TRY IT OUT!

  2. Video on Statistics • TedTalk • Peter Donnelly • http://www.ted.com/talks/peter_donnelly_shows_how_stats_fool_juries.html

  3. Bayesian Statistics THOMAS BAYES: 1701-1761 BAYES THEOREM: CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY: BASE RATES!

  4. Example 1: STD’s A MAN TESTS POSITIVE FOR A SEXUALLY TRANSMITTED DISEASE. THE TEST IS 98% ACCURATE. IF THE PREVALENCE OF THE DISEASE IN SOCIETY IS 1 IN EVERY 1,000, WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY THAT THE PERSON ACTUALLY HAS THE DISEASE?

  5. Example 2: GINGIVITIS Gingivitis is the most common disease in the US. About 60% of people have gingivitis. The test for gingivitis is also quite accurate. The test for gingivitis is 95% accurate. Given that a person tests positive for gingivitis, what is the probability that they actually have the disease.

  6. EXAMPLE 3: BAGS SCREENED BAGS are screened at the PROVIDENCE airport. 78% of bags that contain a weapon will trigger an alarm. 14% of bags that do not contain a weapon will also trigger the alarm. If 1 out of every 1200 bags contains a weapon than what is the probability that a bag that triggers an alarm actually contains a weapon?

  7. HOMEWORK ON BAYES! • Complete the following homework on Bayesian Probability.

More Related