Opting for “Long Term Operations” Technical, economic and regulatory considerations

1. Opting for “Long Term Operations”Technical, economic and regulatory considerations MARC ConferenceJune 8, 2010 Sean Bushart, EPRISr. Program Manager

2. The Long Term Operation Challenge 1929 Marmon (80 years old) 1969 Cadillac (40 years old) 2009 Ford HEV Escape Cost-Effective, Environmentally Sustainable, Safe Operation with High Performance Through 40, 80 or More Years

3. Long Term Operations: Presentation Overview • The Big Picture: Determining the Electricity Generation Mix of the Future • Generation Example: Coal Fleet • Business Decision Making Drivers • Technology Drivers and EPRI Roles • Generation Example: Nuclear Fleet • Business and Regulatory Drivers • Technology Drivers and EPRI Roles

4. 3500 3000 Efficiency 2500 Renewables Nuclear 2000 Fossil Effic, CCS 1500 PEV Electro-Technologies 1000 500 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 A Low Carbon Future Needs A Full Portfolio of Technologies EPRI Prism: Technical Potential to Achieve CO2 Reductions Achieving all targets is very aggressive, but potentially feasible. EIA Base Case 2009 U.S. Electric Sector CO2 Emissions(million metric tons) 58% reduction in 2030 from 2005 level is technically feasible using a full portfolio of technologies

5. Comparison of Current to Future U.S. Electricity Generation Based on 2009 Prism Renewables Coal Nuclear Coal Coal + CCS Nuclear Gas Gas “TODAY” “FUTURE”

6. Coal Plants: Business Decision Making Factors for Long Term Operations “Trilemma” of security of supply, regulatory uncertainty, cost • Impact of large scale deployment of variable output renewables on the existing generation fleet • Regulatory uncertainty, e.g. ash, CO2, power plant water usage, and unknown costs associated with these issues • Financing uncertainty and financial risk

7. EPRI R&D Response: Provide strategic guidance on the new wave of industry decisions mission timing AccommodatingCycling RetirementStrategy Timelines forCapacity Turnover Synergies with modeling pace and costs of CO2 compliance, incl. technology choice Regional case studies of factors affecting timelines Complexities of retirement planning due to changing regional assets Market-based simulation of alternative cycling/ shutdown strategies Technologies to shift cycling burden

8. R&D Focus: Advanced Coal, Carbon Capture and Storage Cost-effective coal-based generation with near-zero emissions and carbon capture and storage Economics/Planning • Technology knowledge databases • Fuel market analysis • Future Assets • Advanced combustion design/performance/demonstration • IGCC design/cost improvements/demonstrations • Deploying Carbon Capture and Storage • Design for CCS Retrofit • Capture and storage technologies

9. Nuclear Long Term Operations: Both a Technical and Regulatory Challenge • Original fleet of plants licensed by the NRC for 40 years of operation • License renewal process established to extend operations from 40-60 years. • EPRI led technical basis for first plants (e.g. Calvert Cliffs) • NEI led with NRC interactions • R&D underway to extend beyond 60 years • EPRI/ DOE collaborating on the technical basis effort • NEI is industry regulatory interface • Utility Executives: Significant investment –likely required to make this leap (early estimates of $350M-$1B/ unit)

10. Nuclear Long-Term Operations: EPRI R&D Scope Provide the technical basis for license renewal and life extension decisions beyond 60 or 80 years • Aging of passive structures and components • On-line diagnostics to prevent equipment failures • Managing crack growth in primary system metals • Realistic and efficient safety analysis tools

11. PZR instrument PZR instrument nozzles nozzles Safety & relief Safety & relief CEDM motor housing CEDM motor housing valve nozzles valve nozzles PZR surge PZR surge RVH vent nozzle RVH vent nozzle CEDM/ICI nozzles CEDM/ICI nozzles line nozzle line nozzle to RV head welds to RV head welds PZR heater PZR heater sleeves sleeves Heat transfer tubing Heat transfer tubing Monitor tube Monitor tube PZR & RC pipe PZR & RC pipe - - surge surge Tubesheet (TS) cladding Tubesheet (TS) cladding Shutdown cooling Shutdown cooling line connections line connections outlet nozzle outlet nozzle Tube Tube - - TS cladding weld TS cladding weld Spray nozzles Spray nozzles Partition plate & welds Partition plate & welds Let Let - - down & drain nozzles down & drain nozzles Primary nozzle closure Primary nozzle closure rings & welds rings & welds RCS instrument nozzles RCS instrument nozzles Safety injection & Safety injection & Bottom channel head Bottom channel head SDC inlet nozzle SDC inlet nozzle drain tube & welds drain tube & welds Charging inlet Charging inlet Guide lugs Guide lugs nozzles nozzles flow skirt flow skirt RCP suction RCP suction & discharge & discharge ICI nozzles ICI nozzles - - ICI guide tubes ICI guide tubes R&D Focus: Materials Aging Extension of Materials Degradation Matrix for primary metals for failure mechanisms to 80 years

12. Demo Plant Activities:Ginna and Nine Mile Point 1 • EPRI, U.S. DOE, and Constellation Energy → 3-year collaboration to demonstrate the assessment of aging concerns • Plants are beyond 40 year life • Examine data, inspect and test for aging degradation • Pilot technical products for long term operations • Developing lead tasks jointly • Key results to date • Comprehensive containment examination • Incremental reactor internals inspection for > 60 years

13. Conclusions • Meeting the objectives of a low carbon future will require a full portfolio of generation technologies • Specific selections of retrofit, retire, replace, or extend must be made on case-by-case basis • based upon specific business and regulatory drivers • EPRI R&D is: • helping utilities to make these decisions • overcoming the technology gaps for “long term operations” in a cost-effective manner

14. Together…Shaping the Future of Electricity