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The ENSO-TC teleconnection in HiGEM

The ENSO-TC teleconnection in HiGEM. Ray Bell Supervisors: Prof. P.L. Vidale, Dr. Kevin Hodges and Dr. Jane Strachan. My PhD. Research questions: How does ENSO influence global TC activity? What is the response of TCs to climate change?

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The ENSO-TC teleconnection in HiGEM

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  1. The ENSO-TC teleconnection in HiGEM Ray Bell Supervisors: Prof. P.L. Vidale, Dr. Kevin Hodges and Dr. Jane Strachan

  2. My PhD • Research questions: • How does ENSO influence global TC activity? • What is the response of TCs to climate change? • How will climate change influence ENSO teleconnections and future TC variability? Dec Oct 2013

  3. Previous work: ENSO-TC ASO JFM NCEP re-an (‘50-’05) GPI. Camargo (2007) Gray; Klotzbach; Landsea Chan; Liu Gray; Camargo Singh; Chian Nicholls; Ramsay Kuleshov; Vitart

  4. Shaman and Maloney (2011) Shortcomings in climate model simulations of the ENSO-Atlantic hurricane teleconnection. J. Clim • CMIP3 models. Large-scale fields. No tracks. ‘VWS and PI are most poorly simulated’ • - Simulation of ENSO • Simulation of TC mean state • - Simulation of ENSO teleconnections

  5. HiGEM: ENSO simulation • Shaffrey (2009)

  6. ENSO composites ERA-Interim (1979-2010) El Nino years: 82-83, 86-87, 91-92, 94-95, 97-98, 02-03, 09-10 La Nina years: 84-85, 88-89, 98-99, 99-00, 07-08, 10-11 AOGCM, 150 years present-day forcing HiGEM: 31 El Nino’s, 25 La Nina’s (7) (6)

  7. HiGEM: TC mean state Lack of recurvature Too few Too many

  8. HiGEM: ENSO-TC location

  9. HiGEM: ENSO-TC frequency

  10. HiGEM: SST mean state

  11. HiGEM: ENSO-SST

  12. HiGEM: ppt mean state

  13. HiGEM: ENSO-ppt

  14. HiGEM: VWS mean state

  15. HiGEM: ENSO-VWS

  16. HiGEM: WC mean state

  17. HiGEM: ENSO-WC

  18. HiGEM: 200 hPa Stream function and velocity potential mean state

  19. HiGEM: ENSO-200 hPa Stream function and velocity potential

  20. ‘Different typesof El Niño’ Favourable TC landfall Kim et al (2009) Kim et al (2011) Cf. Lee et al (2010) (McPhaden, 2012; Ham and Kug, 2011; Yeh, 2009; Ha et al, 2012)

  21. Conclusions • Need to think more about chain of mechanisms. • Future work • Different types of El Niños in HiGEM. • Use a GCM simulation to aid the final Q of my PhD ‘changing ENSO teleconnections on TCs’ • e.g. persistent CPac El event onto top of 2CO2 background changes. AGCM?

  22. Idealised GCM simulations HiGEM UK’s High-Resolution Global Environmental Model (Shaffreyet al, 2009) HiGEM 4xCO230 yrs HiGEM Transient 2% CO2/yr 70 yrs N144 HiGEM 2xCO230 yrs 1.25ox0.83o, ∆x50N = 90 km HiGEM CTRL ~5x30 yrs HiGEM 1.1 CTRL 150 yrs 1/3o ocean model HadGAM N48 (~270km) HiGAM is part of our HIERARCHY OF AGCMs HadGAM N96 (~135km) HiGAM N144 (~90km) NUGAM N216 (~60km) HadGEM3H N216 (~60km) HadGEM3H N320 (~40km) HadGEM3H N512(~25km) New Hadley Centre Model with double vertical resolution and higher model top (85km)

  23. Tracking algorithm (TRACK; Bengsttonet al, 2007) A 20 year time-slice of GCM simulated tropical storms 1) Locate and track all centres of high relative vorticity 35000/yr 2) Apply a 2-day filter to the tracks  8000 storms / yr 3) Analyse vertical structure of storm for evidence of warm-core (tropical storm structure)  120 storms / yr

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