Scenario Analysis of Mega Earthquake and Tsunami in Central Japan

1. Scenario Analysis of Mega Earthquake and Tsunami in Central Japan IRDR International Conference, Beijing 1 Nov, 2011 Naoki Fujiwara CTIEngineering Co., Ltd. Japan ICHARMInternational Centre for Water Hazard Risk Management under the auspices of UNESCO

2. Forensic Investigation onGreat East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami (GEJET) Proposals to FORIN Template and Questionnaire 2

3. Backgrounds and Objectives • Backgrounds • In Japan, one single force (hazard level) has been selected as the design level to be considered indisaster prevension plans and to design/implement structural and non-structural measures. • On the other hand, estimation of damages in case of hazard level exceeding the design level has rarely been conducted. • Objectives • Evaluate and analyze the risks of unexpected events. • Identify issues of disaster management and risk management in Japan • Propose a new approach for “unexpected disasters”. Outline 1. Characteristics of GEJET 2. Current estimation of damage by large scale earthquakein central Japan region 3. Expected damage by GEJET scale tsunami and earthquake 4. Findings 5. Proposal for Future Disaster Prevention

4. 1. Characteristics of GEJET Death cause: More than 90% of people lost their lives du to tsunami Population in inundated area by tsunami: 540,000 Number of dead and missing: 20,000 (About 3.6% of total population in inundated area) Hirono(0) Kuji(4) Noda(38) Fudai(1) Tanohata(31) Iwaizumi(7) Tarou(180) Iwate Miyako(362) Yamada(823) Crushed by buildings, etc 4.4% Unknown 2% Otsuchi(1,397) Kamaishi(1,091) Ofunato(452) Fire 1.1% Rikuzentakata(1,951) Kesennuma(1,405) Miyagi Minamisanriku(901) Higashimatsushima(1,145) Ishinomaki(3,959) Matsushima(2) Rifu(50) Onagawa(963) Shiogama(21) Shichigahama(71) Tagajou(189) Miyagino-ku, Sendai(293) Taihaku-ku, Sendai(53) Natori(984) Tsunami 92.4％ Wakabayashi-ku, Sendai(332) Iwanuma(184) Watari(270) Fukushima Yamamoto(691) Shinchi(110) Source: 2011 White paper on disaster management Soma(459) Minamisoma(663) Namie(184) Death causes in GEJET (Iwate, Miyagi & Fukushima) Futaba(35) Okuma(81) Tomioka(25) Naraha(13) Hirono(3) Iwaki(347) Fire and Disaster Management Agency (As of Sept 9, 2011)

5. Tsunami height exceeded twice the height of coastal levees 1. Characteristics of GEJET % of people died or missing in inundated area Iwate (Number of fatalities & missing) / (population in inundated area) Miyagi Fukushima 5 5 Fire and Disaster Management Agency (As of Sept 9, 2011)

6. 1. Characteristics of GEJET • Enormous damage was caused by GEJET. • Much of Japan’s population, properties and industries are concentrate in central Japan region. • What happens if the earthquake of GEJET scale occurs in central Japan region? GEJET Scenario Analysis in central Japan region １） Estimation of affected population using elevation data ２） Estimation of tsunami inundation area using computational simulation model ３） Estimation of economic damage by tsunami Central Japan region

7. 2. Current estimation of damage by large scale earthquakein central Japan region • Scale of the earthquake (Tokai/Tonankai/Nankai) is M8.7. • Number of fatalities by the earthquake is 25,000. Of these, number of fatalities by the tsunami is 9,100. • Current estimation of tsunami damage is much smaller than GEJET. Distribution of seismic intensity （Tokai/tonankai/Nankai earthquake, Expert Committee of Cabinet Office ）

8. 3. Expected damage by GEJET scale tsunami and earthquake in Central Japan • 70 percent of the Japan’s land is mountainous. Population and properties are concentrated in the coastal area. • Main roads and railways connecting main cities are located in the coastal area. They have possibilities to be damaged by tsunami. • Traffic of Tomei Expressway: 64,000 cars / day • Users of Tokaido Super Express Shinkansen: 370,000 people / day • Numerous large-scale manufacturing centers exist along the coast .(ex.TOYOTA) Hasmanako Bay area (Tokaido Super Express Shinkansen) Yui area (Tomei Expressway) Tokyo Nagoya Osaka

9. 3. Expected damage by GEJET scale tsunami and earthquake Based on the experience of GEJET, the assumed tsunami height was set to be 10 m (5 m in the inner-bay area). It was also assumed that number of fatalities equals to 3.6 % of the population in the inundated area. • Population of the inundated area is about 13,000,000. It is about 10% of the entire population in Japan. • Estimated number of fatalities is about 450,000. 20 times of the current damage assumption. Population of inundation area: 5M, Death: 0.2M （Aichi, Shizuoka, Gifu and Mie Pref.）

10. 3. Expected impact of GEJET scale tsunami and earthquake • Tsunami inundation area was analyzed using a tsunami simulation model. • The magnitude of hazard level was set so that the tsunami level becomes about twice the height of the current expected height. (about 10m).

11. Yui area 12 minutes after the earthquake Hamanako Bay area: 20 minutes after the earthquake m Yui area Fuji LakeHamanako Numazu Hamamatsu Iwata Shizuoka 3. Expected damage by GEJET scale tsunami and earthquake • Result of tsunami simulation m Estimated height of tsunami

12. Result of tsunami run up simulation (Yui area) Depth m 3. Expected damage by GEJET scale tsunami and earthquake Fuji River Fuji 4 m inundation depth in Tomei Expressway which is the arterial highway connecting east and west Japan Tomei Expressway Fuji City Hall Oji Paper Yui area Nippon Paper Industries Nippon Paper Industries Asahikasei Numazu Tokaido Line MEIDENSHA Nippon Light Metal Numazu City Hall 東海道新幹線 In Shizuoka City with 230,000 populations, the tsunami arrives about 10 minutes after the earthquake Tomoe River Nippon Light Metal Shimizu Ward Office Route 1 AJINOMOTO PHARMACEUTICALS Shizuoka

13. 3. Expected damage by GEJET scale tsunami and earthquake • Result of tsunami run up simulation (Hamaoka nuclear power plant) Depth m MakinoharaCity Hall Tomei-Expressway SUZUKI Sagara factory Kikugawa Kiku River Makinohara Sekisuihouse Shizuoka factory Kakegawa Route 150 GYABAN Shizuoka factory BRIDGESTONE ELASTECH Daito Chemix MARUEI CONCRETE INDUSTRY Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry MARUEI CONCRETE INDUSTRY Omaezaki City Hall Omaezaki About 3 m inundation depth at Hamaoka nuclear power plant Hamaoka Nuclear Power Station JASDF Omaezaki Sub Base 13

14. 3. Expected damage by GEJET scale tsunami and earthquake • Result of tsunami run up simulation (Hamanako Bay area) Depth m 4 m inundation depth at Hamamatsu station of the Tokaido Super Express Shinkansen Tomei Expressway Route 1 Tenryu River LakeHamanako Fukuroi City Hall Iwata City Hall Hamamatsu City Hall Tokaido Line YAMAHA Fukuroi Hamamatsu Station JT Hamamatsu factory Hamamatsu JR Tokaihamamatsufactory TokaidoSuperExpressShinkansen JT Iwata SUZUKI MOTOR Kawai Musical Instruments Mfg SUZUKI MOTOR 5 m inundation depth of Tokaido Super Express Shinkansen Many disaster prevention facilities and large scale factories are inundated

15. 3. Expected damage by GEJET scale tsunami and earthquake Iwata Hamamatsu LakeHamanako m Hamanako Bay area 15

16. Estimated damage and losses Losses caused by transportation interruption at Yui area Economic loss incurred by interruption of the highway at Yui area is 12.57 billion yen / day *1 Total economic loss is 150 billion yen, assuming a recovery period of four months *2 Losses caused by operation interruption of Tokaido Super Express Shinkansen Economic losses of canceled trips are about 50 billion yen / day, if the Tokaido Super Express Shinkansen operation is stopped *3 About 2 trillion yen in economic losses, assuming a recovery period of one year *4 This only accounts for reduction of consumption activities by travelers. The losses will be enormous if considering their consequential economic impacts. 3. Expected damage by GEJET scale tsunami and earthquake *1 “Basic study on impact assessment by blocking road traffic” *2 Took four months to recover highway, GEJET *3 “Functional evaluation study of alternative of Tokaido Super Express Shinkansen by Hokuriku Shinkansen” *4 Affected coastal railways still has not recovered after 7 months after GEJET

17. Estimated impacts (qualitative estimation) Inundation damages of major factories and offices Direct damage of office supplies, office equipment and machinery building plant Suspension and stagnant of sales and businesses Impact on the entire supply chain including non-affected areas Impacts of inundation of the nuclear power plant Direct damage by collapsed buildings Evacuation of residents if there is the possibility of radiation leakage (200,000 residents within a 20km radius of the plant) Influence of power outage (supplying about 15% of the Central Region of Japan) 3. Expected damage by GEJET scale tsunami and earthquake

18. Magnitude of damages is well over the current estimation level Casualties (dead or missing) Economic damage Paralyzed urban functions (=> loss of living environment) Paralyzed production functions (=> loss of working environment) Potential impacts currently not assumed in damage estimates became evident Influence of long-term unavailability of arterial transportation lines Spreading of impacts to non-affected areas (economic losses) Delays in emergency activities because of damages to disaster prevention facilities Inundation of nuclear power plants which were considered to be located in a safe location 4. Findings

19. Countermeasures against unexpected large-scale disasters Robust structuresin order to prevent damage Measures to minimize damage (secure shelter, anti-flooding, etc) Enhancement of preparedness and trainingto promote correct understanding and appropriate actions for disasters (prevention of human suffering) Measures to break the chain of damageexpansion (concatenation) Ensureredundancy to suppress the spreading of damages (life-lines, supply chains) Planning assistance from non-affected areas for early recovery and reconstruction (base of operations and coordination) 5. Proposal for Future Disaster Prevention 19

20. Thank you for your attention. 20