1 / 43

如何在 30 歲前，存到人生第一個 100 萬

如何在 30 歲前，存到人生第一個 100 萬. 雷立芬 台灣大學農業經濟學系 教授 2007 年 10 月 26 日. Contents. Objectives Time Value of Money Future value Present value Investment instruments Stocks Bonds Ehrhardt, M.C. and E. F. Brigham, Corporate Finance: A Focused Approach. Objectives. To dream up for the future

fabiano-knight
Download Presentation

如何在 30 歲前，存到人生第一個 100 萬

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. 如何在30歲前，存到人生第一個100萬 雷立芬 台灣大學農業經濟學系 教授 2007年10月26日

  2. Contents • Objectives • Time Value of Money • Future value • Present value • Investment instruments • Stocks • Bonds • Ehrhardt, M.C. and E. F. Brigham, Corporate Finance: A Focused Approach

  3. Objectives • To dream up for the future • What do you want to be? • What do you want to do with $1 million? • To use simple tools • Are there simple tools? • To have lots of fun

  4. Time lines 0 1 2 3 i% CF0 CF1 CF2 CF3 Time 0 is today; Time 1 is the end of Period 1; or the beginning of Period 2.

  5. What’s the FV of an initial $100 after 3 years if i = 10%? 0 1 2 3 10% 100 FV = ? Finding FVs (moving to the right on a time line) is called compounding.

  6. After 1 year: FV1 = PV + INT1 = PV + PV (i) = PV(1 + i) = $100(1.10) = $110.00. After 2 years: FV2 = FV1(1+i) = PV(1 + i)(1+i) = PV(1+i)2 = $100(1.10)2 = $121.00.

  7. After 3 years: FV3 = FV2(1+i)=PV(1 + i)2(1+i) = PV(1+i)3 = $100(1.10)3 = $133.10. In general, FVn = PV(1 + i)n.

  8. Spreadsheet Solution • Use the FV function: • = FV(Rate, Nper, Pmt, PV) • = FV(0.10, 3, 0, -100) = 133.10

  9. FV of $100 at a 12% nominal rate for 5 years with different compounding FV(Annual)= $100(1.12)5 = $176.23. FV(Semiannual)= $100(1.06)10=$179.08. FV(Quarterly)= $100(1.03)20 = $180.61. FV(Monthly)= $100(1.01)60 = $181.67. FV(Daily) = $100(1+(0.12/365))(5x365) = $182.19.

  10. What’s the PV of $100 due in 3 years if i = 10%? Finding PVs is discounting, and it’s the reverse of compounding. 0 1 2 3 10% 100 PV = ?

  11. Solve FVn = PV(1 + i )n for PV: 3 1    PV = $100    1.10   = $100 0.7513 = $75.13.

  12. Spreadsheet Solution • Use the PV function: • = PV(Rate, Nper, Pmt, FV) • = PV(0.10, 3, 0, 100) = -75.13

  13. What’s the difference between an ordinaryannuity and an annuitydue? Ordinary Annuity 0 1 2 3 i% PMT PMT PMT Annuity Due 0 1 2 3 i% PMT PMT PMT PV FV

  14. What’s the FV of a 3-year ordinary annuity of $100 at 10%? 0 1 2 3 10% 100 100 100 110 121 FV = 331

  15. FV Annuity Formula • The future value of an annuity with n periods and an interest rate of i can be found with the following formula:

  16. Spreadsheet Solution • Use the FV function: • = FV(Rate, Nper, Pmt, Pv) • = FV(0.10, 3, -100, 0) = 331.00

  17. What’s the PV of the ordinary annuity? 0 1 2 3 10% 100 100 100 90.91 82.64 75.13 248.69 = PV

  18. PV Annuity Formula • The present value of an annuity with n periods and an interest rate of i can be found with the following formula:

  19. Spreadsheet Solution • Use the PV function: • = PV(Rate, Nper, Pmt, Fv) • = PV(0.10, 3, 100, 0) = -248.69

  20. What is the PV of this uneven cash flow stream? 4 0 1 2 3 10% 100 300 300 -50 90.91 247.93 225.39 -34.15 530.08 = PV

  21. Spreadsheet Solution A B C D E 1 0 1 2 3 4 2 100 300 300 -50 3 530.09 Excel Formula in cell A3: =NPV(10%,B2:E2)

  22. 插入→函數→財務→ FV(10%/12,5*12,-100,-100,0)

  23. 插入→函數→財務→ FV(4%/12,5*12,-100,-100,0)

  24. 插入→函數→財務→ PV(1%,1,0,10000,0)

  25. 插入→函數→財務→ NPER(4%/12,-1000, 0, 5000000,0)

  26. Common Stock • Represents ownership. • Ownership implies control. • Stockholders elect directors. • Directors hire management. • Since managers are “agents” of shareholders, their goal should be: Maximize stock price.

  27. Initial Public Offering (IPO)? • A firm “goes public” through an IPO when the stock is first offered to the public. • Prior to an IPO, shares are typically owned by the firm’s managers, key employees, and, in many situations, venture capital providers.

  28. Stock Value = PV of Dividends One whose dividends (Dn) are expected to grow forever at a constant rate, g. rs: rate of return on stock

  29. For a constant growth stock, If g is constant, then:

  30. What’s the stock’s market value? D0 = 2.00, rs = 13%, g = 6%. Constant growth model: $2.12 $2.12 = = $30.29. 0.13 - 0.06 0.07

  31. E: earning per share, $2.5 D1/E: payout ratio, 60% P0/E =0.6/(0.13-0.06) = 8.57 P0 = 2.5X(0.6/0.13-0.06) = 21.43

  32. Key Features of a Bond • Par value: Face amount; paid at maturity. • Assume $1,000. • Coupon interest rate: Stated interest rate. • Multiply by par value to get dollars of interest. • Generally fixed. • Maturity: Years until bond must be repaid. • Declines. • Issue date: Date when bond was issued. • Default risk: Risk that issuer will not make • interest or principal payments.

  33. 0 1 2 10 What’s the value of a 10-year, 10% coupon bond if rd = 10%? 10% ... 100 + 1,000 V = ? 100 100 $100 $100 $1 , 000 V  . . . + + + B 1 10 10       1 r 1 r + + 1 + r d d d = $90.91 + . . . + $38.55 + $385.54 = $1,000.

  34. Suppose the bond was issued 20 years ago and now has 10 years to maturity. What would happen to its value over time if the required rate of return remained at 10%, or at 13%, or at 7%?

  35. Bond Value ($) rd = 7%. 1,372 1,211 rd = 10%. M 1,000 837 rd = 13%. 775 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Years remaining to Maturity

  36. You are offered a note which pays $1,000 in 15 months (or 456 days) for $850. You have $850 in a bank which pays a 6.76649% nominal rate, with 365 daily compounding, which is a daily rate of 0.018538% . You plan to leave the money in the bank if you don’t buy the note. The note is riskless. Should you buy it?

  37. 1. Greatest Future Wealth Find FV of $850 left in bank for 15 months and compare with note’s FV = $1,000. FVBank = $850(1.00018538)456 = $924.97 in bank. Buy the note: $1,000 > $924.97.

  38. 2. Greatest Present Wealth Find PV of note, and compare with its $850 cost: PV = $1,000/(1.00018538)456 = $918.95.

  39. 投資自己 • 獨立思考的能力 • 良好的品格與態度 • 解決問題的能力 • 足夠的語文能力 • 國際化的視野 • 豐富的專業知識 • 順利就業的能力

  40. 獨立思考的能力 • 吸收資訊（閱讀、聽演講） • 觀察、懷疑、提問 • 討論與辯論 • 寫作或紀錄想法 • 終身學習的態度

  41. 跌倒的三種反應 • 第一種：不知道為什麼會跌倒，倒在原地自怨自艾，怎樣也不願意爬起來。 • 第二種：迅速從原地爬起，但因為內心過份恐懼，拔腿就逃離現場。 • 第三種：立刻自原地起身，想想：為什麼會跌倒？然後嘗試再走一次，直到找到跌倒的真正原因。

  42. 1.5%--German 2.0%--Japanese 2.3%--Russian 2.7%--Bengali 2.8%--Portuguese 2.8%--Hindi 4.8%--English 5.1%--Spanish 14.9%--Chinese www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/index.html 足夠的語文能力

  43. 國際化的視野 • 關心國際事務 • 閱讀國外媒體資訊 • 認識外籍朋友 • 參加交換學生計畫 • 出國旅遊、遊學 • 參與國外志工、打工活動 • 善用國際網路

More Related