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FEBRUARY 2009. Global economic growth: no decoupling (Real GDP, % change). 200 7 200 8 200 9 2010 World 4. 9 3.3 0.7 2.8 U.S. 2.0 1.3 -1.9 2.7 Japan 2. 1 -0.5 -3.5 1.5 Euro-15 2. 6 0 .8 -2.3 1.0 Asia x-Japan 9.5 6.9 5.1 6.7 Canada 2.7 0.5 -1.2 2.2
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Global economic growth: no decoupling(Real GDP, % change) 2007 2008 2009 2010 World4.9 3.3 0.72.8 U.S. 2.0 1.3 -1.9 2.7 Japan 2.1 -0.5 -3.5 1.5 Euro-15 2.6 0.8 -2.3 1.0 Asia x-Japan 9.5 6.9 5.1 6.7 Canada 2.7 0.5 -1.2 2.2 British Columbia 3.0 2.0 -1.0 2.1 Québec 2.6 1.0 -1.0 2.0 Ontario 2.3 -0.3 -1.7 2.3 (Forecast date: February 2009) Source : LBS Economics, Credit Suisse
Financial Stress: « Ted Spread »Spread between 3-month Libor and T-Bills
U.S. house prices: the decline accelerates since July 2008 9
« …that, which is not sustainable, cannot be sustained. » 16
Markets can remain illogical longer than you or I can remain solvent 27
Investment conclusion 2009 Model Portfolio Equities: 55% Bonds: 35% Cash: 10% Key points: - Be patient - Adjust portfolio - Favour US stocks (25%) 30