David F Martin Anthropos Consulting & CAEPR, ANU

1. Sustainable futures for Gulf Aboriginal people David F MartinAnthropos Consulting & CAEPR, ANU

2. In this presentation … I aim to look at some big picture challenges facing the Gulf region, in terms of the issues facing its Aboriginal peoples I suggest that these are not just issues which should be left to State and Federal government Indigenous affairs policies Global issues such as climate change will also need local solutions involving all Gulf people, whether Aboriginal or other

3. Setting the scene The workshop focus thus far has been on key global & national factors which will impact on the Gulf and its people e.g. • Climate change • Peak oil • The future for agribusiness These issues will pose significant challenges to all societies and regions; They will require social, political, technical & commercial innovation on a scale unprecedented in human history.

4. Setting the scene … contd Aboriginal people constitute a significant proportion of the Gulf population Diverse situations – discrete communities; majorities in small communities; significant minorities in larger towns Very poor socio-economic status for many (health, education status, income levels etc) I will focus first however on one aspect of the Gulf Aboriginal population – its demographic characteristics

5. 2006 Indigenous regions and remoteness classification Source: Taylor and Biddle, CAEPR WP 56/2009, www.anu.edu.au/caepr

6. Estimated resident populationMt Isa region (ABS 2006) Indigenous people comprise a significant proportion of the population of this region Outside of Mt Isa, the proportion of Aboriginal people would be even higher

7. Setting the scene … contd The Gulf Aboriginal population is a youthful one – there is a much higher proportion of those under 15 than for Australia as a whole It is a population where there are relatively many fewer older people – life expectancy is much lower, health is far worse It is a population with a high birth rate (whose impact is increased by a relatively high out-marriage rate)

8. Age distributions of Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians, 2006

9. Setting the scene … contd This demographic profile suggests that in regions such as the Gulf the Aboriginal population will significantly increase over the next decades – and will likely be an increasing proportion of the regional population But in conjunction with the social problems in the remote discrete communities in particular, it also has implications beyond just the demographics The demographic profile needs also to be understood as a ‘socialisation and enculturation’ profile as illustrated in the next slide

10. ‘Enculturation’ and strategic leadership:Mainstream Australia Cross-generational enculturation

11. ‘Enculturation’ and leadership:remote Indigenous Australia Intra-generational enculturation Inter-generational breakdown

12. Setting the scene … contd Population projections are notoriously difficult, & become increasingly problematic the longer the time frame For regional Aboriginal populations, a range of factors make projections difficult: e.g. the impacts of potential • Govt policies on health, employment, birthrate, education etc; • Govt support (or lack of it) for remote Aboriginal community living; • rates of Aboriginal in- and out-migration in region. To illustrate such impacts, will look at the possible Indigenous profile in 2031 if ‘closing the gap’ successful Reasonable to assume Gulf would follow this trend

13. Aust. Indigenous populations 2006 & 2031assuming ‘closing the gap’ targets met Significant increase in aged popn.

14. Driving change and innovation I have already argued that there will be unprecedented challenges at global, national, and local levels over the next century This will require creative, dynamic and educated leadership politically, in industry and commerce, regionally, and locally This will pose particular challenges for rural and remote-resident Aboriginal Australians, and for their non-Aboriginal co-residents

15. Driving change and innovation… contd For example: Australians in general become educated before they become old But remote and rural-dwelling Aboriginal people all too often become old before they are educated So where will the Aboriginal leadership able to initiate & drive the necessary change come from?

16. Driving change and innovation… contd Aboriginal people’s experience is all too often that they are the objects of social policies, rarely allowed to be the initiators or decision makers about policy. E.g. • exclusion >> assimilation >> reconciliation >> economic participation • more recently the transformation / abolition of CDEP • new housing policies for remote communities • support for outstations and then its removal The challenges of peak oil, climate change etc are enormous – and there is a high risk that once again Aboriginal people will be left behind, like the stockmen of earlier decades were by global market changes and by transformed pastoral technologies

17. What does this mean for the Gulf? I suggest there are a number of key challenges for the Gulf from this scenario The new 21st century industries in an era of climate change and energy challenges will certainly include niches in which Aboriginal people in some regions will have a competitive advantage; e.g. • Land and sea country management and ecotourism • Carbon trading • High quality ‘green’ beef production, etc etc

18. What does this mean for the Gulf? … contd However … These industries are not labour intensive and so would not engage all of the large numbers of those coming into workforce age over next decades Carbon trading, ecotourism etc opportunities more limited in the Gulf because little Aboriginal-owned land (cf Arnhem land, Cape York) ‘rents’ from mining royalties or carbon trading also have negative social impacts; ‘passive royalties’

19. Conclusion: local solutions to global problems The issues confronting Aboriginal people have to be seen as issues for all Gulf people. e.g. • It is indefensible and unsustainable for a large community like Doomadgee to be mired in poverty and to have essentially been abandoned to its own fate • It has an historical legacy of neglect, euphemised through the language of ‘self-determination’ • It should be seen as the business of Gulf people to partner with Doomadgee people in addressing these issues, not just wait for Governments to ‘fix’ them

20. Local solutions to global problems … contd As an example, Shepparton, Victoria: • business leaders came to the view that having a large proportion of the Aboriginal people of the region unemployed was a problem for the economic well-being of the region, not just the Aboriginal people concerned So, cultural change is needed amongst businesses and political leadership in the Gulf, building on what is already happening– for example, here in Normanton

21. Local solutions to global problems … contd But cultural change will also be necessary amongst the broader Aboriginal population in the Gulf too • Already many instances of this; e.g. Colin Saltmere’s training / earthmoving etc business at Camooweal; Bynoe and Delta Downs in this region; perhaps Century mine • But there will also need to be a more widespread embracing of what the wider society offers – particularly through education • It is only through this that Aboriginal people will be able to equip themselves to deal with the enormous challenges of the next few decades