Erin Urquhart 1 , Rebecca Murphy 1 ,Matt Hoffman 2 , Ben Zaitchik 1 ,

1. Geospatial Interpolation of Remotely Sensed Observations in the Chesapeake Bay:an Ecological Forecasting Application Erin Urquhart1, Rebecca Murphy1,Matt Hoffman2, Ben Zaitchik1, 1Johns Hopkins University, 2Rochester Institute of Technology

2. Vibrio in the Chesapeake Bay * V. cholerae *V. vulnificus *V. parahaemolyticus Urquhart et al. AGU Fall Meeting 2012 December 3, 2012 Satellite Ocean and Coastal Applications- Current and Future II

3. Remote Sensing of Vibrio in the Chesapeake Bay z(V.c)= -1.1939 + (0.1233 * Temp) – (0.1997 * Saln) – (0.0324 * (Temp * Saln) Urquhart et al., (2012) RSE Urquhart et al. AGU Fall Meeting 2012 December 3, 2012 Satellite Ocean and Coastal Applications- Current and Future II

4. Percent Satellite Coverage by Month Urquhart et al. AGU Fall Meeting 2012 December 3, 2012 Satellite Ocean and Coastal Applications- Current and Future II

5. Urquhart et al. AGU Fall Meeting 2012 December 3, 2012 Satellite Ocean and Coastal Applications- Current and Future II

6. Geostatistical Spatial Interpolation: Kriging • What is Kriging? • Determine data dependency • Semivariogram • Spatial autocorrelation • Model fitting • Predictions • Ordinary Kriging • Y(s) = β0 + ε(s) • Constant mean is unknown • Universal Kriging • Y(s) = β0 +β1X1(s) + … + βpXp(s) + ε(s) • Trend in the data Urquhart et al. AGU Fall Meeting 2012 December 3, 2012 Satellite Ocean and Coastal Applications- Current and Future II

7. Urquhart et al. AGU Fall Meeting 2012 December 3, 2012 Satellite Ocean and Coastal Applications- Current and Future II

8. Urquhart et al. AGU Fall Meeting 2012 December 3, 2012 Satellite Ocean and Coastal Applications- Current and Future II

9. Urquhart et al. AGU Fall Meeting 2012 December 3, 2012 Satellite Ocean and Coastal Applications- Current and Future II

10. EOF Analysis Parameter Method 1st Mode (%) 2nd Mode (%) Total (%) Salinity 79 92 OK 13 UK 69 90 21 OK 80 14 94 Temperature UK 93 5 98 Urquhart et al. AGU Fall Meeting 2012 December 3, 2012 Satellite Ocean and Coastal Applications- Current and Future II

11. Comparison of Interpolated and ChesROMS Parameter Output Parameter Method ME MAE RMSE R2 2.47 Salinity 0.61 0.86 UK 1.89 1.86 ROMS -0.52 0.94 (psu) 1.46 0.84 UK 0.28 0.99 Temperature 0.63 -1.39 ROMS -0.76 0.98 -1.14 (oC) Xu et al. (2002) Urquhart et al. AGU Fall Meeting 2012 December 3, 2012 Satellite Ocean and Coastal Applications- Current and Future II

12. SO WHAT? • Methods had similar SSS errors during data heavy months • Interpolated SST had a smaller average error than ChesROMS • Interpolated observations act as a second-source of Bay-wide observations • Extreme event accuracy • Data assimilation potential (future work) • Observations can be utilized when they are available/reliable • Hoffman et al. (2012) • Two techniques offer complementary information that can be applied to Vibrio spp. monitoring Urquhart et al. AGU Fall Meeting 2012 December 3, 2012 Satellite Ocean and Coastal Applications- Current and Future II

13. Remote Sensing of Vibrio in the Chesapeake Bay z(V.c)= -1.1939 + (0.1233 * Temp) – (0.1997 * Saln) – (0.0324 * (Temp * Saln) Urquhart et al. AGU Fall Meeting 2012 December 3, 2012 Satellite Ocean and Coastal Applications- Current and Future II

14. Remote Sensing of Vibrio in the Chesapeake Bay Urquhart et al. AGU Fall Meeting 2012 December 3, 2012 Satellite Ocean and Coastal Applications- Current and Future II

15. Acknowledgments Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Lab, Carlos del Castillo Johns Hopkins University, Rebecca Murphy Cornell University, Dr. Bruce Monger University of Delaware, Erick Geiger University of Maryland, Bradd Haley, Elisa Taviani NASA Goddard, Molly Brown, Vanessa Escobar Funding Sources Johns Hopkins University