How does global climate change translate into regional change, and how do we adapt?

1. How does global climate change translate into regional change, and how do we adapt? Three case studies involving wind speed behavior along the Pacific Coast

2. Stanley Park 2006 windstorm http://www.montrealgazette.com/

3. Stanley Park windstorm • Winds of 160 km/hr (hurricane speed) • 1 life lost • 10,000 trees • $9 million in restoration • Impacts to tourism, local economy What’s the likelihood that this type of event is going to happen more often in the future?

4. Global Warming Predictions • Models are coarse tools that give us a rough idea of what changes will occur • Temperature • Precipitation • How do these climate model projections translate into our day-to-day lives? Projection from the Canadian Regional Climate Model version 4.1.1 (CRCM4) courtesy of www.pacificclimate.org

5. How will climate change translate into changes in extreme events? (IPCC, 2012)

6. How does a changing climate affect the Pacific Northwest’s regional weather patterns, and therefore the frequency and magnitude of extreme wind events? Are we prepared for the changes?

7. STUDY 1: How have wind speeds changed in the Pacific Northwest? Examined changes in winds observed at 179 meteorological stations from 1950 to 2008 Griffin, Kohfeld, Cooper, and Boenish (2010)

8. Typical wind speed distribution Median Wind Speed 7 m/s 95th percentile winds GALE FORCE Hurricane winds

9. Wind behavior clumped into two main groups: “coastal” and “inland” Griffin, Kohfeld, Cooper, and Boenish (2010)

10. “Coastal” and “Inland” winds exhibit very different behaviour Coast 95th Percentile “Extreme” winds Inland Median winds Griffin, Kohfeld, Cooper, and Boenish (2010)

11. STUDY 1: Observations • Both the median and extreme winds are decreasing by 3-5% per decade • Extreme winds in coastal areas exhibit stronger winds with possible cyclic behavior

12. STUDY 1: Observations • Both the median and extreme winds are decreasing by 3-5% per decade • Extreme winds in coastal areas exhibit stronger winds with possible cyclic behavior

13. Atmospheric “Stilling” of the Northern Hemisphere • Wind speeds decreasing all across the mid-latitudes • Caused by increased vegetation growth and changes in atmospheric circulation patterns Vautard et al. (2010)

14. Implications and Open Questions • Both the median and extreme winds are decreasing by 3-5% per decade • AIR QUALITY: (Horton et al. 2012) • WIND-DISPERSION OF POLLEN (Thompson and Katul (2013) • BIRD MIGRATION TIMES (M Drever, personal communication) • WIND ENERGY: (Cross, 2014)

15. BC Clean Energy Act (2010) Goals • to generate at least 93% of the electricity in British Columbia from clean or renewable resources and to build the infrastructure necessary to transmit that electricity • to use and foster the development in British Columbia of innovative technologies that support energy conservation and efficiency and the use of clean or renewable resources. • to encourage the switching from one kind of energy source or use to another that decreases greenhouse gas emissions in British Columbia to reduce BC greenhouse gas emissions

16. STUDY 2: How can we use historical wind speed information to better plan renewable energy needs? • Hydropower accounts for ~95% of all electricity generation in BC • Hydro-electric and wind energy both susceptible to seasonal and inter-annual variability in weather and climate

17. Objectives • Examine wind speed trends in 7 regions of Pacific Coast, western Canada, and the USA • Compare them with a time series of summed reservoir inflow data for BC (from BC Hydro) Cross, Kohfeld, Bailey, Cooper, and Rucker (in preparation)

18. Objectives • Find sites where wind speeds are • HIGHEST during drought years • LOWEST during wet years • Identify areas with high wind speeds that are NOT correlated Cross, Kohfeld, Bailey, Cooper, and Rucker (in preparation)

19. Which areas show high winds in drought years? • The northern coastal areas show high winds that are anomalously even HIGHER during the three lowest inflow (drought) years

20. STUDY 2: Observations • Using longer-term climate data can aid in the selection of wind farm sites to help supplement the current hydro-electric power in British Columbia • OPEN QUESTIONS: Are these “wind-water” relationships stable, or will they change with climate?

21. STUDY 3: What are the implications for changes in coastal winds? • Extreme winds in coastal areas exhibit stronger winds with possible cyclic behavior • How might this influence ocean circulation and productivity?

22. Wind driven circulation, upwelling, and productivity Spring/Summer Fall/ Winter

23. Global warming effect on coastal upwelling? Bakun et al., 2010

24. Driving Questions: • Have cyclical changes in coastal winds affected coastal upwelling? • Intensity • Timing • Do we see a long-term trend in increased upwelling? • Data from 1979-2010 Bylhouwer, Ianson, and Kohfeld (2013)

25. Winds are highly variable - no trends Upwelling Onset (1) North (4) South Upwelling duration (4) South (1) North Bylhouwer et al. 2010

26. STUDY 3: Is wind-driven upwelling increasing?: Not necessarily Some studies suggest some intensification in the south, but not across the entire zone, and results depend on length of record Bylhouwer et al. (2013)

27. Take away messages about climate change and its regional impacts • A global climate model is going to have a hard time predicting what happens regionally • Climate change isn’t always going to happen the way you expect • The wind systems exhibit some trends, but can be highly variable from year to year • Historical records allow you to place predictions into perspective and allow us to plan

28. References • Bylhouwer, BR, D Ianson, KE Kohfeld, Changes in the onset and intensity of wind-driven upwelling and downwelling along the North American Pacific Coast, Journal of Geophysical Research – Oceans, 118, doi:10.1002/jgrc.20194, 2013. • Cross, B, “The Impacts of Wind Speed Trends and Long-term Variability in Relation to Hydroelectric Reservoir Inflows on Wind Power in the Pacific Northwest” Unpublished Masters thesis, Simon Fraser University, 45pp., 2014. (http://www.rem.sfu.ca/COPElab/publications/) • BJ Griffin, KE Kohfeld, AB Cooper, G Boenisch (2010) The Importance of Location for Describing Typical and Extreme Wind Speed Behavior, Geophysical Research Letters 37, L22804, doi:10.1029/2010GL045052, 2010. • Daniel E Horton et al (2012) Response of air stagnation frequency to anthropogenically enhanced radiative forcing Environ. Res. Lett. 7 044034 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044034 • IPCC, 2012: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, 582 pp. • Thompson, S.E. and G.G. Katul, Implications of non-random seed abscission and global stilling for migration of wind-dispersed plant species, Global Change Biology, 19(6),1720-1735, 2013. • Vautard et al. (2010) Northern Hemisphere atmospheric stilling partly attributed to an increase in surface roughness, Nature Geoscience, 3: 756-761

29. STUDY 4: How does changing climate affect severe winter storms in Vancouver, and should we care? The Pineapple Express Bring massive quantities of warm rain, “Atmospheric Rivers”

30. Extra Slides

31. Which areas are poorly correlated • The northern coastal areas are poorly correlated (and have high wind speeds) so they will be generally show behavior independent of wet/dry cycles