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Real-time system

Real-time system. Expert Team on Operational Ocean Forecast Systems. What is ET-OOFS? (What is JCOMM?) Why has it been created? (What is an ET?) What are its objectives? How will it achieve those objectives? GODAE OceanView and ET-OOFS. Real-time system.

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Real-time system

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  1. Real-time system Expert Team on Operational Ocean Forecast Systems

  2. What is ET-OOFS? (What is JCOMM?) Why has it been created? (What is an ET?) What are its objectives? How will it achieve those objectives? GODAE OceanView and ET-OOFS Real-time system

  3. Joint WMO-IOC technical commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology Real-time system • Key themes • coordination, regulation and management • fully integrated observing, data management and service systems • responsive to interdisciplinary user needs • outreach and capacity building • improved products for MSS, MAES, SI (WMO)

  4. Family tree – not static, preparing for JCOMMIII IOC WMO JCOMM-MAN SPA OPA ETOOFS ETWS

  5. Services Programme Area Maintains the “statement of guidance” Manages a number of Expert Teams, ET-WS, ET-MSS, ET-MAES, ET-SI Proposed ET-OOFS to JCOMM-MAN in Dec 2007 to guide pre-operational GODAE OOFS into fully operational ocean services

  6. Expert teams Goal: Improve the quality of services provided by the agencies of member states in their respective theme Types of Objectives: Develop guidance for operational agencies to encourage adoption of best practices and standards for services across agencies Develop and maintain requirements documentation for operational systems Monitor and evaluate effectiveness of services Coordinate actions to address identified deficiencies in services Real-time system

  7. ET-OOFS: Current ToR – under review for JCOMMIII ET-OFS ToR and Workplan being finalised for JCOMM-III

  8. ET-OOFS Operational monitoring Develop and maintain the guide for “operational ocean forecast systems” for which JCOMM-MAN/SPA/ET-OOFS will endorse for all member agencies The guide will include a chapter on operational monitoring ET-OOFS will review and include metrics into the guide that satisfy: Demonstrated value of the information Efficient to compute and store Simple to implement: i.e., Portable software available ET-OOFS will navigate the guide through the approval process within JCOMM and stakeholders ET-OOFS is proposing that both TT-OSE and TT-Intercomparisons be endorsed as joint TT’s with two of the proposed tasks: Recommend new operational metrics satisfying the criterion Review existing operational metrics

  9. SPA - Statement of Guidance

  10. Observations Programme Area Coordination Group http://www.jcomm.info/ocg3

  11. Sea level anomaly is more critical to OOFS than climate, JCOMM SPA role

  12. OCG-IIIParis, 9-11 March 2009 Critical review for non-climate requirements Etienne Charpentier Observing Systems Division, WMO Secretariat

  13. The RRR – Rolling Review of Requirements • WMO/CEOS Database • Requirements (“technology free”) • Performances of instruments • Critical review • Critical Review Charts • Analysed by Experts to produce gap analysis and Statement of Guidance (SoG) • SoGs reviewed by ET-EGOS • Feeds into the ET-EGOS Implementation plan, and vision of the GOS

  14. CREATE AND UPDATE CREATE AND UPDATE CRITICAL REVIEW Observing system capabilities database User requirements database GENERATE STATEMENT OF GUIDANCEfor each application area Statement of Guidance The RRR process

  15. Global NWP Requirements (example)

  16. Operational performance – in practice NWP surface fluxes, model error growth Optimum performance curve Ocean predictability limits Observation coverage, Observation error, Automatic QC, Analysis optimisation Initialisation, Observation timeliness,

  17. Improving performance: Competition of resources • First and second generation OOFS systems are to be expected not optimal • How do we argue/diagnose the right GOOS for OOFS? • Resource pressures for continuous system improvements R&D and agency operational super-computing infrastructure • (Higher resolutions, 1-2km, ensembles, 4DVar, coupled physical and coupled BGC modelling) • Resource pressures to design, deploy and maintain ocean observing systems and R&D for new technologies. • The end-user just wants a skilful robust service. • All agencies aspire toward maximum impact. • GOOS/OOFS partnership and a total cost/benefit model is critical to get the right balance for the agencies and governments

  18. Achieving performance at lowest cost Performance target Observational requirements is an operations research/optimisation problem

  19. A vision of justifying the OOS requirements – Cost vs Benefit Performance Performance Benefit Observational requirements Cost Cost Benefit Observational requirements

  20. Other competing costs Performance Performance Benefit Observational requirements Cost Performance Cost Cost Benefit Observational requirements

  21. Who can help with these problems ? SPA/ET-OOFS + GOV + Agencies SPA/ET-OOFS + Agencies + User groups Performance Performance SPA/ET-OOFS + Agencies Benefit Observational requirements OPA+GSSC+Manufacturers +Operators Cost Performance Cost Cost Benefit Observational requirements

  22. ET-OOFS proposal for GOV and TT-OSE • Endorse TT-OSE as a joint TT • Identify deficiencies in OOFS performance and recommend optimisations • Prepare recommendations for the operational monitoring in “The guide” • Contribute to the next RRR process for the “Statement of Guidance” for OOFS • Developing the cost vs benefit case. Feedback on what the TT-OSE could deliver to this process. Real-time system

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