Public Policy Discussions and Polling: Understanding the Impact of Straw Polls and Benchmark Tracking

1. 4.4 Public Policy Discussions and polling

2. Straw poll • an unofficial poll taken to determine the opinion of a random group of people on important issues. • Straw polls are a common feature in the United States politics during the selection process of delegates and seeking opinion on resolutions. • It is polling whose results are not binding. • It is used to determine public opinion on a particular candidate or any issue before the actual elections take place.

3. Benchmark/tracking poll •  a type of poll repeated periodically with the same group of people to check and measure changes of opinion or knowledge.

4. Entrance/exit polls • An entrance poll is a poll that is taken before voters have cast their votes at the polling stations. • It is akin to an opinion poll in the sense that it asks who the voter plans to vote for or some similar set of questions. • Exit polls are taken as voters leave the polling station asking how or how they voted.

5. Types and format of questions • Do you approve or disapprove of the death penalty • Vs • Would you want the death penalty imposed on someone who killed your family.

6. Evaluating Polls and Their Limit on Public Opinion Evaluating Polls • Most national and regional polls are fairly reliable, but far from perfect. • Problems • Cannot measure intensity, stability, and relevance of the opinions they report. • Polls sometimes shape the opinions they are supposed to measure. • Limits on the Impact of Public Opinion • Public opinion is the major, but by no means the only, influence on public policy. • The Government protects minority interests against the excesses of majority views and actions. • Finally, polls are not elections, nor are they substitutes for elections.

7. Tips on Reading Polls • Check out the margin of error. • A 3 percent margin of error means plus or minus 3 percent, turning a 50 percent approval rating into one of 47-53 percent • What is the timing? • The further away from Election Day, the less meaningful the results • The random sample is the “gold standard” • If the respondents chose themselves (by deciding to take the survey), then it’s only fun to read and not an accurate picture of the public • What is the sample size • Be wary of polls that interview a small number of people • Compare across polls • Since every poll has biases, read a range of polls, toss out the extreme findings, and take an average of the rest

8. Literary digest fiasco • The 1936 presidential election proved a decisive battle, not only in shaping the nation’s political future but for the future of opinion polling. The Literary Digest, the venerable magazine founded in 1890, had correctly predicted the outcomes of the 1916, 1920, 1924, 1928, and 1932 elections by conducting polls. These polls were a lucrative venture for the magazine: readers liked them; newspapers played them up; and each “ballot” included a subscription blank. The 1936 postal card poll claimed to have asked one fourth of the nation’s voters which candidate they intended to vote for. In Literary Digest's October 31 issue, based on more than 2,000,000 returned post cards, it issued its prediction: Republican presidential candidate Alfred Landon would win 57 percent of the popular vote and 370 electoral votes.

9. Why did they get it so wrong • Problem with their sample population - only asked people listed in phone book or automobile owners • Problem of timing - sent out the survey in September and people's opinions changed more favorably toward FDR in October • Problem of self-selection - only highly motivated individuals responded to the poll

10. Impact of polls on democracy • Contributes to the democratic process by allowing citizens to voice their opinion • Allows leaders to know and implement public opinion on key issues

11. Tool for the timid and manipulative • Transform leaders into followers. Instead of leading they “just” follow public opinion. • Can be used to manipulate public opinion. • Bandwagon effect, well if that is how everyone else feels….

12. A cautionary tale • Our democracy is based on an informed citizenry • National poll found • 74% of respondent could name the 3 stooges • 42% could named the 3 branches of government • 25% could name their tow senators • Less than 50% knew the first 10 amendments are the Bill of Rights

13. How Difficult Is It To Measure Public Opinion When So Many People Lack Political Knowledge? Does the Bill of Rights Prohibit the Official Establishment of Religion in the United States? What are the Three Branches of Government? Name any Power of the National Government. Name one Country that was an enemy of the United States During World War II. 73% 50% 25% 35%

14. Impact of polls on elections • Turn and talk • How might polls impact elections?

15. Horse race journalism • is political journalism of elections that resembles coverage of horse races because of the focus on polling data, public perception instead of candidate policy, and almost exclusive reporting on candidate differences rather than similarities.

16. Types of political party systemsone party systems • One party has total control over the government • Membership is not voluntary • Party leaders approve candidates for office, voters have no real choice, • Generally results in a dictatorial government • China, North Kores, and Iran

17. Types of political party systemstwo party systems • Two major political parties compete for control • Minor parties usually have minimal impact on elections • Electoral college system makes it almost impossible for a third party to win any given states • Generally have a consensus among citizens about the principles of government • Tend to avoid extremes • Tend towards table governments • US, United Kingdom, India, Jamaica

18. Types of political party systems multi party systems • Multiple political parties compete • Often represent widely different ideologies • Usually result of proportional representation voting system • Mean to give voters more choice • Often means no party has a clear majority • Leads to forming coalition governments, • Which lead to an unstable government • France, Italy, Israel

19. Minor Parties in the United States • Year Party Presidential Percent Electoral • Candidate Popular Votes Vote Received • States’ Rights Strom Thurmond 2% 39 • (Dixiecrat) • 1948 Progressive Henry A. Wallace 2 0 • American George C. Wallace 14 46 • Independent • National Unity John Anderson 7 0 • Reform Ross Perot 19 0 • Reform Ross Perot 8 0 • 2000 Green Ralph Nader 3 0 • Reform Pat Buchanan 0 0 • 2000 Independent Ralph Nader 0 0 • 2008 Reform Ralph Nader # #

20. Party Identification and membership • Membership is voluntary • If you believe you are a member of a party then you are • Factors that impact party identification • Ideology • Education • Income • Occupation • Race or ethnicity • Gender • Religion • Marital status • age

21. % saying that there is a difference in what the Republicans and Democratic Parties stand for 2014

22. Young/Old Voting Gap, 1972-2012 2014

23. How the Generations See Themselves 2014

24. How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizens’ Decisions • Policy Voting • Basing your vote choice on issue preferences and where the candidates stand on policy issues • Policy voting may occur if : • Voters know where they and the candidates stand on issues and see differences between candidates • Unlikely to occur because: • Candidates can be ambiguous on the issues. • Media tend to focus on the “horse race” not issues: who is winning not what the issues are • Today candidates are forced to take a clear stand in the party primaries increasing chances for policy voting.

25. Political party organizationleadership • Need effective organization to be successful • Both major parties organization is much the same • President is automatically the head of his/her party

26. Political party organizationnational convention • Serves as the party’s national voice • Delegates meet in the summer every 4 years to select party’s candidate for President and Vice President • Write and adopt party’s political platform, positions of the political party

27. Future of political parties • Recent decades show a decline in political parties • Third party challenges • Loss of support of party loyalists • Increase in split ticket voting • Lock of perceived differences between the parties • Party reforms • Methods of campaigning

28. Policy trends and the role of government in social issues • Reflect the success of different ideologies in political parties

29. How does political culture influence public policy

30. Beliefs of the day influence policy

31. Balancing liberty and safety

32. 2 additional ideologies besides liberal and conservative • The general goal of socialism is to maximize wealth and opportunity, or to minimize human suffering, through public control of industry and social services. • Progressives recognize problems and try to define and address the systemic rules, laws and traditions that enable and empower the problems in the first place. Additionally, Progressives share a general belief in the interconnections of individuals and the philosophy that “when you hurt, I hurt”

33. Keynesian economic principles • Keynes advocated increased government expenditures and lower taxes to stimulate demand and pull the global economy out of the depression. Subsequently, Keynesian economics was used to refer to the concept that optimal economic performance could be achieved -– and economic slumps prevented – by influencing aggregate demand through activist stabilization and economic intervention policies by the government. Read more: Keynesian Economics Definition | Investopediahttps://www.investopedia.com/terms/k/keynesianeconomics.asp#ixzz5Wkos6pHDFollow us: Investopedia on Facebook