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Wi-Fi, WiMAX, Why Care?

Wi-Fi, WiMAX, Why Care?. Sandy Teger and David J. Waks System Dynamics Inc. sandy@system-dynamics.com . Wi-Fi. LAN. PAN. MAN. WAN. Wireless Technologies for Different Ranges. WiMAX. 3G. UWB/ZigBee/Bluetooth. Telephony: Shift from fixed to personal.

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Wi-Fi, WiMAX, Why Care?

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  1. Wi-Fi, WiMAX, Why Care? Sandy Teger and David J. WaksSystem Dynamics Inc.sandy@system-dynamics.com

  2. Wi-Fi LAN PAN MAN WAN Wireless Technologies for Different Ranges WiMAX 3G UWB/ZigBee/Bluetooth

  3. Telephony: Shift from fixed to personal Source: Personal Broadband Industry Association

  4. Telephony Spending Shift to Wireless • Balance of spending for telephony has now moved to wireless • Wireless telephony is largest share of consumer wallet - and only one growing • Is broadband next? Source: TNS Telecoms, 2nd Qtr 2004

  5. Personal Broadband Next Source: Personal Broadband Industry Association

  6. Solutions For Personal Broadband Deploying Now • Wi-Fi Hotspot Bundles • SBC: DSL adder for $1.99 • Dual Wi-Fi/cellular handsets from SBC/Cingular for hand-off to hotspots and “roam to home” • “Pre-WiMAX” Risk From 2.5 GHz band holders • Clearwire and Nextel already launched • 3G: Verizon, Sprint • Municipal wireless using Wi-Fi • Chaska, MN; Cerritos, CA; Philadelphia, PA; …

  7. WiMAX – 802.16 • Broadband Wireless Access – Metropolitan Area Networks • Fixed (and nomadic) access: 802.16-2004 (8/2004) • Mobile access: 802.16e (expected 5/2005) • Maximum cell size ~30 miles, 1.5 to 5 more typical • Maximum speed 100 Mbps (64QAM/20 MHz)

  8. WiMAX: Great Expectations • Addresses deficiencies of previous BBW • Interoperability • Cost of base stations and CPE • Shared bandwidth up to 100 Mbps • Line of sight not required • Coverage 3-5 miles, more like cellular • Licensed and unlicensed spectrum • Many DOCSIS-like features including QoS • Milestone to “broadband everywhere”

  9. WiMAX Bandwagon Effect • WiMAX Forum: ~160 members and growing • Complete value chain • Many chip companies, including Intel, Fujitsu • Many major equipment companies, including Motorola, Alcatel, Siemens • Many service providers, including BT, France Telecom and Qwest • Analogous to Wi-Fi Alliance for 802.11 • Product certification through formal conformance and interoperability testing against “profiles” • Promotion, promotion, promotion

  10. WiMAX Status • “Pre-certification” products shipping now • Based on earlier 802.16a standard • Expensive base stations and CPE – enterprise focus • Certified products in 2005 • Based on 802.16-2004 • Licensed 2.5 GHz (U.S.) and 3.5 GHz (ROW) • License-free 5.8 GHz • “Plugfest” interoperability testing started 2004 • Formal certification testing ~1H05 • “Mobile WiMAX” expected late 2006 • CPE bundled in laptops by 2007

  11. Other Mobile Broadband Wireless Technologies Deploying Now • FCC just restructured 2.5 GHz band from video to broadband service • Band holders not waiting for WiMAX • Nextel running large-scale market trial in Raleigh-Durham • Clearwire launched in Jacksonville, FL and St. Cloud, MN • Sprint also owns spectrum, deferring decision

  12. Nextel in Raleigh-Durham • Flarion “Flash-OFDM” technology • Mobile within RDU area • Downlink 1.5 Mbps (burst to 3Mbps) • Service starts at $34.99 (750/200) • Combo Wi-Fi/Flarion device: Netgear & D-Link • Developing technical & market knowledge

  13. Clearwire in Jacksonville, FL • NextNet “pre-WiMAX” technology • “Up to 1.5 Mbps” • Starts at $24.99 (512/128) • Easy self-install • Licenses in >80 markets

  14. Metro Wi-Fi • High-volume, low cost, low margin • Based on off-the-shelf consumer Wi-Fi adapters • Not “carrier class” service • Disruptive to MSOs?

  15. Issue Spectrum usage Security QoS Interference Roaming performance Throughput Mesh techniques Range Connection persistence Progress 802.11a 802.11i/WPA, WPA2 802.11e/WMM 802.11h, 802.11k 802.11r 802.11n 802.11s Wi-Fi Gaps Being Filled Specifics

  16. City-wide “Hot Zones” • Already deployed in some smaller cities • Big cities preparing to deploy soon • Public safety a major driver, “digital divide” another • Near-term threat and opportunity for MSOs

  17. Mesh Networking Tropos Networks MeshNetworks PacketHop Nortel Motorola … Smart Antennas Vivato 5G Wireless … Rapid Pace of Innovation and Market Entry

  18. City-Wide Wi-Fi in Chaska, MN • City operated, 16 square mile coverage area • Public safety, low-cost residential broadband service • 7500 homes passed, 1100 pre-registered • 200 cells, <$500,000 CapEx

  19. Is Metro Wi-Fi Disruptive? • “Disruptive Technologies”* • Simple, cheap • Target lower performance markets • Commercialized in emerging market • Fast technological progress • Subsequently become performance competitive against established products * The Innovator’s Dilemma,Clayton M. Christensen

  20. Is Your City Next? Philadelphia Grand Haven Spokane Jacksonville

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