Mr Roy Henry / Dr Keith Joiner CSC

1. doing more with less:Improved confidence levels via redesigned ammunition qualification testingA method to improve small arms ammunition qualification for use in existing ADF small arms weaponry using statistical test techniques applied within the US Defense Department Mr Roy Henry / Dr Keith Joiner CSC

2. scope • Why This • Background • Current Test - DMSP • Problem • History – 6000 rounds • Proposal • Old vs New – Round / Test Design • Summary • Recommendations

3. Why this • ADF desire to IIS new ammunition • I wanted to understand the test regime • Tests appeared unnecessarily repetitive • Opportunity to study it – and apply sound principles to redesign the test • Dr Keith Joiner’s Advanced Test and Evaluation Course

4. Background • Policy: ADFDMSP-1QMS (ENG) 12-8-031 Safety and suitability for Australian service (S3) assessment for small arms weapon systems • Predominately based off two standards: • NATO STANAG 4608 Ammunition below 12.7mm Cal Design Safety Requirements and Safety and Suitably for Service • NATO AC / 225 D/14Evaluation Procedures for Future NATO Small Arms Weapons Systems, 6 Jul 01 • Endstate • “Obtain Sufficient OQE to support Technical Certification of system (weapon and ammunition)” • The system is therefore safe to conduct manned firing, user trials or introduce new ammunition or weapons into service.

5. Current test: DMSP • Outlines the four different tests: • Manned firing clearance • User Trial • Provisional Design Authority / TC with Conc) • Full Design Authority / Tech Cert) • Ambiguous and contradictory in parts • 6000 round “endurance” requirement *Taken from DSMP, Table 2

6. Current test: Round count • One Ammunition Type • Minimum 18 260 rounds required (3 weapons) • With Suppressor – newSteyr • 36000 rounds • 1200 magazines • ~5h to load (2 rounds / second) • 12000 rounds per weapon – incredible useage

7. problem • Test Parameters: • External Ballistics • Endurance • Temperature assessment • Function and Casualty • 6000 rounds fired over four discrete temperature ranges • -46 OC • -6 OC • +21 OC • +71 OC • Test Outputs: • Muzzle Velocity • Accuracy (Group) • MPI shift • Ejection Pattern • Weapon / Ammunition failures

8. History - 6000 rounds Quirk of history which has been applied to ammunition qualification testing Production Testing, Lot acceptance, Serviceability Regimes Tests are Weapon Focused 2007 US TOP 3-2-045 Small Arms – Hand and Shoulder Weapons 1995 Army(AUST) 6443 Australian Steyr F88 1987 M4A1 Mil Spec MIL-C-70599 2001 NATO D/14 Production Lot Acceptance 5 in every 500 weapons “determine the functional life of the weapon and its component parts. …data helps establish logistical requirements for parts stockage and replacement schedules…” Production Lot Acceptance 1 in every 7500 QA program “determine the functioning and endurance performance of the weapon behaviour and serviceability of all parts”

9. analogy Fuel is the ‘ammunition’ for the car (Weapon) Car needs to drive long distance (6000km) without falling apart Quality of car being tested, not fuel You don’t drive long distance as a test each time you change fuel providers…

10. Proposal : Ammunition s3 reimagined DOE inspired model of the ammunition qualification system • Assumptions: • OEM has qualified round • Round has undergone certification/compliance activities • In production / use with other users Y4 – Ejection pattern reduced in scope as deemed qualitative measure

11. Proposal: Improving statistical confidence • Used Projectile Velocity as the basis • Velocity is directly related to group size, and therefore MPI shift. Slower velocities mean the projectile drops quicker (and vice versa) • Standard Deviation of 6m/s was used as representative of mass produced factory ammunition • One sample equates to five rounds

12. Proposal: DOE inspired result

13. old vs newRound count comparison • 92% reduction in rounds / testing • Reduced • Labour • Laboratory time • Funding • Waste • Savings can be reinvested in other areas

14. Old verses newTest comparison • Green = similar • Orange = modified • Red = removed • More streamlined • 18260 vs 1400 Rounds

15. summary • Proposed Test regime demonstrates that test data quality is not compromised and a more informed approach can be taken for full technical certification • The research found the 6000-round per weapon requirement probably derived from weapon qualification standards rather than ammunition qualification standards. • The research has proposes a first-principled and statistically rigorous rationale for such S3 testing based on what the S3 output responses should be and the use of U.S. DoD design-of-experiment techniques. • The historical context combined with the analysis attempts to show that endurance testing should be by exception only.

16. recommendations • ADF has an opportunity to revisit the current small arms ammunition S3 testing procedure (DMSP, 2015) to: • remove the identified ambiguities and inconsistencies • improve its applicability, • remove the default endurance requirement • specify statistically guided testing within required confidence limits to provide a more informed outcome so as to achieve a significant reduction in test time and resources • seek US ATEC DOE discussion to confirm our approach

17. doing more with less:Improved confidence levels via redesigned ammunition qualification testing Mr Roy Henry / Dr Keith Joiner CSC Proposal Old vs New Test Summary Recommendations Background Current Test - DMSP Problem History – 6000 rounds