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NOS Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework (COMF) and ROMS Applications in NOS Operational Forecast Systems Aijun Zhang 1 , Mark Vincent 2 , Frank Aikman 3 Eugene Wei 3 , Richard A. Schmalz, Jr. 3 , Lyon Lanerolle 3 1 Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS),

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  1. NOS Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework (COMF) and ROMS Applications in NOS Operational Forecast Systems Aijun Zhang1, Mark Vincent2, Frank Aikman3 Eugene Wei3 , Richard A. Schmalz, Jr.3 , Lyon Lanerolle3 1 Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS), National Ocean Service/NOAA 2 Oceanic and Atmospheric Research/NOAA 3 Coast Survey Development Laboratory, National Ocean Service/NOAA April 6, 2010

  2. Outline • What and how NOAA does coastal operational forecast systems • Some examples of ROMS applications • Challenges and wish list

  3. SST Salinity NOSOceanographic Forecast SystemsRequirements • Primary Mission:Support of safe & efficient navigation • Water levels for under-keel clearance • Currents for right-of-way, maneuverability • Emergency response (provide circulation, T, S etc. fundamental information) • HAZMAT • Search & Rescue • Homeland Security • For environmentally sound management of the coastal zone • Ecosystem applications • Marine geospatial applications

  4. Cook Inlet Great Lakes (Mar. 2006) Columbia River New York Harbor (Feb. 2003) Delaware Bay San Francisco St. Johns River (Oct. 2005) Chesapeake Bay (Aug. 2001) Galveston Bay (Jun. 2004) Tampa Bay Gulf of Mexico

  5. New NOS OFS Strategy • Global/Basin Model from Navy and NWS/NOAA (e.g. NCOM, HYCOM, RTOFS, etc.) • Shelf models to fill gaps between global/basin model and coastal/estuarine model (Gulf of Mexico Shelf, West Coast Shelf, East Coast Shelf, etc.) , provide better boundary conditions for coastal/Estuarine models • Coastal/Estuarine model nested with Shelf models

  6. Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework (COMF) COMF is a set of standards and common tools to develop and operate NOS OFS. It is standardized for any model and any location • PURPOSE:Efficient R&D, O&M for NOS OFS • Easy Data Handling & Maintenance • Single System for all Locations • Single standard tool for Graphics and Web Pages • Standard skill assessment and evaluation Tools • Standard NOS Model products to Users • Various Models Allowed ADCIRC, ECOM, EFDC, ELCIRC, FVCOM, MECCA, POM, ROMS, SELFE NOS selected ROMS and FVCOM as the core ocean models

  7. Individual Model systems NOS Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework (COMF) OPERATIONAL MODELS (COMF) on CCS REAL-TIME DATA INGEST QA/QC (COMF) • Data Tank on CCS: • Atmospheric Forcing • Coastal Boundary Conditions • Riverine Fresh Water Inputs Products and archives Linux Server in CO-OPS FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE (water level, water temp, currents, & salinity) PRODUCTS (web pages and digital pt. & gridded data) FOR USERS tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov QA/QC (CORMS) 24 x 7

  8. NOS Operational Forecast System Evaluation (Model Skill Assessment) • Objective - Measure the performance of model simulations (including tidal simulation, hindcast, nowcast, and forecast) by comparing with observations -All models should be assessed and pass the NOS skill assessmentstandards before transferring to operation • Functions • Data acquisition and process (observations and model outputs) • Time interval conversion and Gap-filling • Concatenation of model outputs • Filtering • Tidal harmonic analysis and prediction • Extracting extremes/events and slack waters • Compute statistical variables • Generate skill assessment score tables • Harmonic constants comparison

  9. Continuous Operational Real-Time Monitoring System (CORMS) CORMS is the primary system to perform 24 x 7 real-time QA/QC on all real-time data, systems, and products in the CO-OPS domain

  10. World-Class Supercomputing AT NCEP • IBM Power6 p575 • 69.7 Teraflops Linpack • #36 Top 500 Nov 2008 • 156 Power6 32-way Nodes • 4,992 processors @ 4.7GHz • 19,712 gigabytes memory • 170 terabytes of disk space • 100 terabyte tape archive • Two identical systems locate in different locations. One is production, the other is backup. • NOAA’s atmosphere operational forecast systems (e.g. NAM, GFS, etc) • NOAA’s ocean forecast systems (e.g. RTOFS, HYCOM, GLOFS, CBOFS, DBOFS, TBOFS, etc.) Fairmont, West Virginia Gaithersburg, Maryland

  11. NOS OFS PRODUCT FLOW CHART http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov • Real-Time Observations • Model reanalysis and • forecast products Forcing Data on CCS CORMS • Server “ofsprod” at CO-OPS • sftp access model outputs on CCS • Produce graphic products. • Produce NOS OFS web pages on CO-OPS web. • Archive Operational Products (NAS) Sftp using secure key NCEP Central Computer System (CCS – IBM Super Computer) All NOS OFS NWS Web Operations Center (WOC) and Distributed Brokered Networking (DBNet) Public THREDDS Data server Opendap / webservices

  12. NOS OFS Nowcast/Forecast Schedule 2-3 day Forecast 6 hour nowcast 00z 06z (now) 12z 18z

  13. NOS OFS Forcing

  14. Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecast System (CBOFS) • 4 cycles per day • 48 hours forecasts of Water levels, current, T & S Dimensions: 291 x 332 x 20 Res. 50 m – 5 km Bathymetry from NOS sounding

  15. Delaware Bay Operational Forecast System (DBOFS) • 4 cycles per day • 48 hours forecasts of Water levels, current, T & S Dimensions: 119 x 732 x 10 Res. 100 m – 3 km Bathymetry from NOS sounding

  16. Tampa Bay Operational Forecast System (TBOFS) • 48-hour forecasts of Water levels, current, T & S (4 cycles per day) Dimensions: 176 x 290 x 11 Res. 100 m – 1.2 km Bathymetry from NOS sounding

  17. Water Level forecasts at CBBT and Kiptopeke from CBOFS

  18. Synoptic Hindcast : water level validation Observations from NOS/CO-OPS monitoring stations

  19. Synoptic Hindcast : currents validation Observations from NOS/CO-OPS/CMIST monitoring stations

  20. Synoptic Hindcast : T error summary Left panel show RMSE and Right panel show mean error Look at surface, 15-feet (4.6m) and bottom Surface, 15-feet similar & largest errors at bottom Horizontally, errors mainly along axis of the Bay Most mean errors in [-1 oC, +1 oC] range and RMSE in [0 oC, 2 oC] CBOFS2 excessively cool at surface and excessively warm at bottom

  21. Synoptic Hindcast : S error summary Left panel show RMSE error and Right panel show mean error Look at surface, 15-feet (4.6m) and bottom Surface, 15-feet similar & largest errors at bottom Horizontally, errors mainly along axis of the Bay Most mean errors in [-2 , +3 ] range and RMSE in [0 , 4 ] in PSU CBOFS2 excessively salty at surface and excessively fresh at bottom

  22. Water Level time series from TBOFS.

  23. Current time series at Sunshine Skyway Bridge and Old Port Tampa from TBOFS.

  24. Challenges and Wish List • Reliable and stable operational version of ROMS (community model). Reliability > 99% • Perfect Restart • Wetting and Drying (test in Cook Inlet) • Data Assimilation (e.g. for shelf model) • Composite grids and grid refinement (shelf model + Estuary model) • Coupling with Wave, Ecological and biological modules (hydrodynamic + eco.) • Better vertical mixing scheme in coastal shallow waters (vertical stratification) • Future Collaborations with ROMS Community in transitioning research to operation.

  25. Thanks !! Questions ?

  26. Real-Time Observations Water Levels, River Flow Temperature, Salinity Meteorological variables Model reanalysis and forecast products NAM, GFS, RTMA, RUC, NDFD ETSS, NCOM, RTOFS ADCIRC tide constituents WOA CCS – NCEP Central Computer System CORMS – Continuous Operational Real-Time Monitoring System COMF – Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework NAM – North American Mesoscale model GFS – Global Forecast System RTMA – Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis RUC – Rapid Update Cycle NDFD – National Digital Forecsat Database ETSS – Extra-Tropical Storm Surge Model NCOM – Navy Coastal Ocean Model ADCIRC – ADvanced CIRculation model RTOFS – Real-Time Ocean Forecast System WOA – World Ocean Atlas ROMS – Regional Ocean Modeling System Data tank on CCS Data Resources used for NOS OFS

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