Presented at: The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

1. Demography, “The Deal”, and the Rise of Equity Politics in Israel’s Democracy Richard Cincotta Wilson Center Global Fellow Demographer-in-residence The Stimson Center rcincotta@stimson.org Presented at: The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration Moscow, Russian Federation December 2013

2. ISRAEL • Special Case (1) for Political Demography: Liberal democracy where the secular majority has passed through the demographic transition, and where two minorities that are antagonistic to the state as it is currently institutionalized, have not. • Special Case (2) for Political Demography: A minority that was organized to counter secularization and fertility decline (ultra-Orthodox); a minority organized to perpetuate settlement (religious orthodox settlers). • Objective: To reasonably forecast some aspect of future elections based upon minority demographic trends, and majority public and political response to those trends.

3. Shifting composition in a relatively stable age structure Projected changes in the composition of Israel’s age structure, 2005 to 2030. Projections: Cincotta & Kaufmann, 2010

4. Ethno-religious demographic trends Data: Paltiel et al. 2012 (Israeli Bureau of Statistics) Figure: Cincotta, 2013

5. Votes Arab-led parties Ultra-Orthodox-led parties Other parties Population (x1,000) Ultra-Orthodox Sources: Paltiel et al., Central Bureau of Statistics (Israel), 2012; Election Commission (of Israel), 2013

6. 2013 2009 1999 2003 2006 Source: Election Commission (of Israel), 2013

7. Trends in Knesset seats Fringe parties Left, Center, Right Coalitions Source: Election Commission (of Israel), 2013

8. Shas Arab-led UTJ Source: Election Commission (of Israel), 2013

9. Election Outcomes: Votes & Knesset seats, 15th to 19th Knessets Source: Election Commission (of Israel), 2013 Figure: Cincotta, 2013

10. Conclusions: • Ultra-Orthodox parties (or Arab-led parties) are unlikely coalition partners in post-election governments for the foreseeable future. • Coalitions of rightist and centrist parties are the most likely outcomes of Israeli elections for the foreseeable future. Unification governments are less likely possibilities. • The possibility of center-vs-right reformist rivalries looms on the horizon. While reformists are unified on issues of minority-relevant reforms, divisions exist over Israeli-Palestinian territorial questions.

11. Unsettled Demographic Issues: • Continued high fertility among minorities: Ultra-Orthodox, Israeli Arabs (particularly Bedouin), and West Bank settlers. • Institutional reinforcements of differentiation: Four educational systems, deferments from conscription (reforms occurring), state support for yeshiva and stipends for students, exclusion from national service (Muslim and Christian Arabs), absence of secular family law (marriages, divorces). • Residential segregation. Perhaps the most powerful impediment to “demographic integration”, is unlikely to be altered.

12. Shifting composition in a relatively stable age structure Are standard methods of projecting the aggregate population appropriate for states with significant ethno-religious fertility differentials? [No, of course] Projections: Cincotta & Kaufmann, 2010