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By Adam McCarty ( adaminhanoi@gmail.com )

www.mekongeconomics.com. “Myanmar economic prospects and risks” presentation at 14 th Asia Cementrade Summit, Rangon , Myanmar (13 September, 2012). By Adam McCarty ( adaminhanoi@gmail.com ). Contents.

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By Adam McCarty ( adaminhanoi@gmail.com )

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  1. www.mekongeconomics.com “Myanmar economic prospects and risks” presentation at 14th Asia Cementrade Summit, Rangon, Myanmar (13 September, 2012) By Adam McCarty (adaminhanoi@gmail.com)

  2. Contents • Perspective: development path (Gapminder) – slower but not stagnant; need to reindustrialise. • Key data • Macroeconomics and trade • Themes to understand • SWOT and Business Opportunities

  3. Poorest in ASEAN

  4. GDP: Roll a dice

  5. Other indicative and key data • Electricity sales grew 4.5% p.a. 2002-2009 • Cement sales grew 1.8% p.a. 2004-2009 • Poverty 26% (IHLCS 2010) • 26% of households have grid electricity • Adult literacy 92% (?) • Infant mortality rate 50/1,000 • Life expectancy 62 years • 13 million (of 60 million) aged 15-28 years

  6. Macroeconomic management a concern IMF: Kyat 30-40% over-valued (expect depreciation) Exchange rate unified March 2012

  7. Deficits widen and few export items

  8. 68% of exports are gas, logs, and legumes. Clothing and footwear are only 8% of exports.

  9. Themes to understand • Public Investment: small total; central projects; locals rely on own-funds (WB PEFA). Tax revenue 3% of GDP. • Administrative capacities/systems (FDI in manufacturing, hotels and tourism totalled $53.6m during 2005-2010) • Tertiary education: generational variance

  10. Logistics performance and infrastructure: Marginally worst in ASEAN

  11. Business Opportunities • SHORT TERM: • Tourism • Extractives: oil, gas, mining • Licences (e.g. telecoms) • LONG TERM: • 2015 elections are market entry trigger.

  12. QUESTIONS? “Myanmar economic prospects and risks” presentation at 14th Asia Cementrade Summit, Rangon, Myanmar (13 September, 2012) By Adam McCarty (adaminhanoi@gmail.com), www.mekongeconomics.com

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