Projection of potential forest resources and wood removals

1. Projection of potential forest resources and wood removals use of NFI data and models at regional level A. Colin, C. Barnérias, N. Hamza, J.L. Cousin, M.D. Van Damme, S. Roger Cirad – Montpellier – 28th June 2006 IFN - Nogent-sur-Vernisson - antoine.colin@ifn.fr

2. Projections of potential forest resources and wood removals • Context • Modernization of NFI tools and combination of 3 current applications : • Age classes (regular evenaged stands) • Diameter classes (all stand structures) • Development of a functional and modular tool (user-friendly, practical tool to discuss with local forest managers) • Project management : follow-up of processes, hypothesis and actions (traceability) • - Integration of the French NFI into the growth modeler community • easier use and access to NFI data : 270 000 inventory plots, 3 millions trees, • importation of external data (productivity), • exportation of results under a database format. ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Journée Capsis – 28th June 2006 – Cirad Montpellier

3. Projections of potential forest resources and wood removals Objectives - To forecast short and mid-term potential timber harvests (5-30 yrs) - Geographic level : local, regional (natural, administrative), national - A decision-making tool : • Strategies and actions to enhance timber harvests • Adequacy between forest resource & industrial investments • Follow-up of national forest policy (afforestation program, etc.) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Journée Capsis – 28th June 2006 – Cirad Montpellier

4. Projections of potential forest resources and wood removals - Building set of forest management units - Modeling raw NFI data 1. Analysis of current forest resource • Analysis of removals in the past • - Comparing forest inventories • - Discussion with local managers 2. Definition of appropriate management practices 3. Calculation of potential forest resource and wood removals in the future • Tools (growth models) • - Results A three steps process ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Journée Capsis – 28th June 2006 – Cirad Montpellier

5. Projections of potential forest resources and wood removals Extérieur (ONF, CRPF, recherche) Module facultatif Module obligatoire Comparaison d’inventaires données d'entrée ou de sortie Définition des scenarii sylvicoles Hypothèses de croissance Apports extérieurs Base d’exploitation de l’IFN Choix du simulateur scenarii de gestion scenarii de croissance • Simulations (& actualisation) • par classe d'âge • par classe de diamètre • - Disponibilités forestières brutes • - autres … Données d’entrée des simulateurs Constitution des DE et évaluation de leur pertinence statistique Préparation des données par DE Lissage Caractérisation de la ressource à l'instant t Extérieur (modèles de la recherche) Saisie directe Traitements dans Capsis Extérieur (modèles de la recherche) Saisie directe Résultats, Précision Service diagram ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Journée Capsis – 28th June 2006 – Cirad Montpellier

6. Projections of potential forest resources and wood removals Compromise homogeneity x detail x statistic accuracy • Constitutive criteria (play a role on management practices) : • - Geographic localization (department, NFI region) • - Ownership • - Stand structure • - Main tree species • - Other (accessibility, elevation, site, etc.) Query on NFI databases Building set of forest management units (DE) Objective : To describe the regional forest resource for management purposes Minimum 5000 ha ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Journée Capsis – 28th June 2006 – Cirad Montpellier

7. Projections of potential forest resources and wood removals Compiled data, no more use for data at plot level Assessment of the forest resource (raw NFI data) Variables : Growing stock, net increment, forest area, number of stems, basal area Division criteria (NFI criteria) : - region, ownership, stand structure, tree specie - age classes, - diameter classes (small, medium, large), - slope and accessibility classes, - cross sections (timber / industrial / fuel wood), - others (to be define with local managers) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Journée Capsis – 28th June 2006 – Cirad Montpellier

8. Projections of potential forest resources and wood removals • Raw NFI data (for every DE) : • growing stock, increment / classes (age or diameter) • « single-tree / distance-independent » Operation : “Smoothing” raw NFI data per ha Objectives : 1. Prevent improbable data 2. One age – one data Hypothesis : Transversal approach : the values measured on several stands of different ages at the same date are applied to one stand growing from age t to age t+n Preparation of input data for growth models

9. Projections of potential forest resources and wood removals • « Business as usual » • Intensified management practices • Others … Private and public forest managers / other regional organizations / French NFI Even aged high forest of maritime pine in private forest of Brittany Definition of forest management practices • Control factors (for every DE) : • - Intensity of thinning (% growing stock, increment, number of stems), • - Area concerned by regeneration practices / clear cuts, • - Area of reforested & afforested lands, • - Management program complying ratio in private forests

10. Projections of potential forest resources and wood removals Modeled NFI data Iterative model for age classes distributions Evenaged stands One set of management units (DE) Objectives : - resource - Wood removals

11. Projections of potential forest resources and wood removals Iterative model for diameter classes distributions Every kind of stand structures Short and mid-term objectives : - assessment of forest resource - calculation of potential wood removals Growth : shift in the number of stems from one diameter class to another, dynamic based on radial growth measured by NFI in the forest Thinning : % number of stems / diameter classes (output of the comparing inventories process) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Journée Capsis – 28th June 2006 – Cirad Montpellier

12. Projections of potential forest resources and wood removals Edition of PDF reports (automation) • + additional calculations from the results • Economic balance • Fuel wood resource = wood removals – (timber + industrial round wood) • Carbon balance • Others …

13. Projections of potential forest resources and wood removals Qualification of appropriate management practices Interactive mode using Capsis Shared Database Web service based on Capsis batch mode INTERNET Software Architecture  for one set of forest management units (DE)  Generalisation for all set of forest management units (project) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Journée Capsis – 28th June 2006 – Cirad Montpellier

14. Projections of potential forest resources and wood removals References 2005 - IFN. J. Lenoir. Le Douglas en Normandie : estimation et valorisation de la ressource à partir des résultats du 3ième inventaire IFN. Rapport de fin d’étude FIF - IFN. V. Morillon. Le Douglas en Limousin. Utilisation des résultats du 4ième inventaire IFN. Rapport de fin d’étude ENSTIB/ENGREF 2004 IFN / AFOCEL. Disponibilités en bois résineux en France, réévaluation après les tempêtes de décembre 1999 2003 IFN. Étude de la ressource forestière et des disponibilités en bois en Bretagne 2001 IFN / AFOCEL. Suivi de la ressource en pin maritime dans les Landes de Gascogne après la tempête de 1999 ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Journée Capsis – 28th June 2006 – Cirad Montpellier