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Solutions Presentations Zone

Solutions Presentations Zone. 10.30 Andy Robinson Ninth Wave 11.30 Ian Wallace Palisade Europe Ltd 12.30 David Dunning Corporate Project Solutions 1.30 Gerald Bradley Sigma Consulting 2.30 Kirban Sparrowhawk Oracle . Project Challenge Spring 2009

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Solutions Presentations Zone

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  1. Solutions Presentations Zone 10.30 Andy Robinson Ninth Wave 11.30 Ian Wallace Palisade Europe Ltd 12.30 David Dunning Corporate Project Solutions 1.30 Gerald Bradley Sigma Consulting 2.30 Kirban Sparrowhawk Oracle

  2. Project Challenge Spring 2009 Do you feel confident? Using Monte Carlo probability analysis in project management 7 June 2014 Presenter: Ian Wallace

  3. Do you feel confident?

  4. Do you feel lucky?

  5. Measuring confidence Only 70% chance of being on-time!

  6. Still working out the odds?

  7. ?

  8. Monte Carlo distribution Statistics, shape/skew, percentiles, estimate of probability of meeting base case or target value. Expected Value/Mean ML Min Max 10 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 90% chance

  9. Comparing confidence levels

  10. Tornado graph

  11. Benefits • Corporate benefits • Reduces over-commitments to customers • Robust process • Improved transparency/reduced budget-padding & WIP • Better risk management & competitive edge • Good corporate governance practice • Personal benefits • Helps gets the right amount of resources/best plan • Less work than MS Project’s PERT analysis • Manages expectations • Good professional practice – PMP/PRINCE • Improves the chances of success • Excellent communication tool

  12. Triangular Distribution

  13. PERT Distribution

  14. Uniform Distribution

  15. Monte Carlo sampling

  16. Example project plan

  17. Typical pitfalls • GIGO • Weighting opinions/bias • Training/getting used to the jargon • Level of detail

  18. Positioning the process Risk register Qualitative Quantitative Data collection Graphing & analysis Including risk events Tracking & control

  19. Immediate benefits • Is this a good project plan? • What are the chances of success? • Have we got enough contingency? • What are the most important risks?

  20. Wider benefits • Corporate benefits • Reduces over-commitments to customers • Robust process • Improved transparency/reduced budget-padding & WIP • Better risk management & competitive edge • Good corporate governance practice • Personal benefits • Helps gets the right amount of resources/best plan • Less work than MS Project’s PERT analysis • Manages expectations • Good professional practice – PMP/PRINCE • Improves the chances of success • Excellent communication tool

  21. Conclusion Good ‘Luck’!

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