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North Texas Winters During ENSO Neutral Conditions

North Texas Winters During ENSO Neutral Conditions. Daniel Huckaby Jason Dunn. Topics. El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – current and future state ENSO phase composites for upcoming winter temperature precipitation

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North Texas Winters During ENSO Neutral Conditions

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  1. North Texas Winters During ENSO Neutral Conditions Daniel Huckaby Jason Dunn

  2. Topics • El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – current and future state • ENSO phase composites for upcoming winter • temperature • precipitation • Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlooks ENSO phase vs. trends and other inputs • Drought re-emerging?

  3. ENSO Categories Neutral El Niño La Niña

  4. ENSO Neutral • Walker Circulation – low surface pressure in western equatorial Pacific; high surface pressure in eastern equatorial Pacific • Tropical convection is usually confined to the western equatorial Pacific. Stable, rain-free weather is typical near South America.

  5. Model Projections

  6. ENSO Neutral to Prevail • Model consensus is for ONI to remain between -0.5 and 0.5 throughout the upcoming winter • Sea surface temperatures (SST) in equatorial Pacific continue to “reflect lingering aspects of La Niña” • recent decrease in SST • some cool anomalies • Pacific/North American teleconnection pattern (PNA) • currently neutral and likely remain so • positive correlation with ENSO phase

  7. Oceanic Niño Index

  8. Winter Temperatures (1950-present)

  9. Winter Minimum Temp • (58 winters - 1950-2007)

  10. Average Minimum Temp for the Winter (Dec-Feb) (1950-present)

  11. Winter of 1989-90 (ENSO neutral) • 2nd coldest December (1983 coldest) • DFW – over 3 consecutive sub-freezing days • December 23, 1989 … DFW -1⁰F, ABI -7 ⁰F -4⁰F ACT, -7⁰F SPS, +1⁰F GGG • devastating to vegetation • 5th coldest February, but January 7.7⁰F above normal! • Winter 1989-90 (December-February) temperatures • mean 1.4⁰F above normal • average max 3.0⁰F above normal • fewer freezes than normal

  12. Other Sub-Zero Winters • January 31, 1949 • DFW -2⁰F, Waco -5⁰F • 1948-1949 ENSO neutral (JMA) • January 18, 1930 • DFW -1⁰F, Waco -1⁰F • 1929-1930 El Niño (JMA) • February 12, 1899 • DFW -8⁰F • 1898-1899 ENSO neutral (JMA)

  13. Average Minimum Temp for the Winter (Dec-Feb) (1950-present)

  14. ENSO Neutral Winter Precipitation • ENSO neutral and winter precipitation - little significant correlation • Of 14 sites analyzed, 6 show weak dry signal • Graham most significant (both DJF and JFM) • DJF – DFW, Denton, Forestburg • JFM – Greenville, Lampasas • NONE show wet signal

  15. CPC Outlook Inputs • El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) • trends • temperature – 10-year mean • precipitation – 15-year mean • Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) • North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) • Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) • soil moisture anomalies • statistical tools • dynamic models • objective skill analysis

  16. Current CPC Winter Outlook Nov/Dec/Jan Temperature Outlook

  17. Current CPC Winter Outlook Dec/Jan/Feb Temperature Outlook

  18. Current CPC Winter Outlook Jan/Feb/Mar Temperature Outlook

  19. Current CPC Winter Outlook Nov/Dec/Jan Precipitation Outlook

  20. Current CPC Winter Outlook Dec/Jan/Feb Precipitation Outlook

  21. Current CPC Winter Outlook Jan/Feb/Mar Precipitation Outlook

  22. Precipitation Departures

  23. Fire Danger!

  24. Summary • ENSO neutral conditions are expected to continue throughout the upcoming winter • ENSO neutral winter composites show… • mean temperatures near normal • generally lower than normal minimum temps • extreme cold outbreaks more common • little precipitation correlation • CPC outlooks show… • warm winter trend – can mask extreme events! • little precipitation signal – thus drought a concern

  25. The End Questions/Comments daniel.huckaby@noaa.gov jason.dunn@noaa.gov

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