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1. Outline. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. National Development Vision Population Situation and Context Population and Development Factors Family Planning: Challenges The Role of Policy: Opportunities. India’s Vision. Photo by Rajesh. Eleventh Five-Year Plan (2007 – 2012)

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Outline

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  1. 1

  2. Outline 1 2 3 4 5 National Development Vision Population Situation and Context Population and Development Factors Family Planning: Challenges The Role of Policy: Opportunities

  3. India’s Vision Photo by Rajesh Eleventh Five-Year Plan (2007 – 2012) Commitment to planned social and economic development Governmental role and responsibility “Our ultimate objective is to achieve broad based improvement in the living standards of all our people.” Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) Eight goals that respond to main development challenges Provide framework to measure and target development 2015 deadline

  4. Outline 1 2 3 4 5 National Development Vision Population Situation and Context Population and Development Factors Family Planning: Challenges The Role of Policy: Opportunities

  5. Economy and Society Population Photo by Suneeta Sharma How does population affect India’s economic growth and social development in the coming decades?

  6. India’s population has quadrupled in the last 100 years. And the number of people added each decade continues to grow. Decadal Population Growth Population (million) Photo by Etrenard 238 Source: Census 2001: India at a Glance

  7. In 20 years, India will be the most populous nation in the world. 10 Most Populous Countries in the World Population (Millions) Year 2008 Year 2030 Photo by Andrew Miller Source: World Population Prospects: 2008 Revision Population Database UN Population Division

  8. Population of Indian states matches that of large countries... Uttar Pradesh Maharashtra Bihar West Bengal Andhra Pradesh Madhya Pradesh Tamil Nadu Rajasthan Gujarat Orissa Kerala Jharkhand Assam Punjab Haryana Chhattisgarh Delhi Jammu and Kashmir Uttaranchal Brazil Mexico Germany Vietnam Philippines Thailand France Italy South Africa Argentina Canada Uganda Uzbekistan Peru Romania Ghana Cambodia Belgium Austria 100 50 200 250 200 150 0 250 50 100 150 Note: Population in millions Sources: UN Population Prospects 2006 and R.G.I. Population Estimates 2006

  9. Half the population growth will be in 7 northern states. Southern states will contribute only 13% of growth. Projected population of India: 2001-2026 Share of additional 371 million Photo by MeenaKadri Source: Registrar General of India, 2006 (Population Projections for India and States 2001 – 2026

  10. Photos by PASQUA (top), Simply CVR (bottom) India’s Youth Bulge 3 out of 10 people are under age 15 Female Male 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 2001 Population (Crores) Source: Census 2001

  11. By the time India achieves population stabilization, there will be 1.6 billion people Photo by MadhaviKuram Source: Census 2001; DemProj model analysis provided by USAID| Health Policy Initiative Project

  12. Population Explosion: Rapid Growth in Four States Photo by MeenaKadri Source: Registrar General of India

  13. On average, women in northern states have more children. Total Fertility Rate, 2008 Photo by LeandraFallis Source: SRS 2007

  14. While some states have achieved replacement-level fertility, others will take many more years. Photo by Meena Kadri National Population Policy Goal Total Fertility Rate 2.1 by year 2010 Source: Registrar General of India, 2006 (Population Projections for India and States 2001 – 2026

  15. Fertility Trends: Madhya Pradesh, Bihar & Andhra Pradesh Children per woman Photo by MeenaKadri Source: Sample Registration System (SRS), Registrar General of India

  16. Outline 1 2 3 4 5 National Development Vision Population Situation and Context Population and Development Factors Family Planning: Challenges The Role of Policy: Opportunities

  17. Population and development affect each other Photo by Simply CVR Link between population growth, development, and poverty alleviation goals

  18. If we continue to grow at the current pace, our population will double in 50 years, making sustainable development unattainable. Urgent need to reduce population growth High Fertility Population (billion) Low Fertility Photo by Meena Kadri Sources: Census 2001 and 2008 Revision Population Database UN Population Division

  19. Development Sectors A B C D E Education Environment and Food Security Water and Electricity Economy and the Labour Force Health

  20. Education Universal enrolment of children ages 6–14 including the hard- to-reach segment All gender, social, and regional gaps in enrolments to be eliminated by 2011–12 Dropout at primary level to be eliminated Significant improvement in learning conditions Photo by World Bank Eleventh Five Year Plan 2007-2012

  21. Primary Students Fewer Students, More Resources Available per Child High Fertility Low Fertility Number of Students, Ages 6 – 11 (Millions) Projections arrived using SPECTRUM with inputs from Census, 2001, NFHS -2 & NFHS -3 and Eleventh five-year plan

  22. Primary Teachers Fewer Teachers Needed, Better Student-to-Teacher Ratio High Fertility Low Fertility Number of Teachers (Millions) Projections arrived using SPECTRUM with inputs from Census, 2001, NFHS -2 & NFHS -3 and Eleventh five-year plan

  23. Education Expenditures Significant Savings with Slower Population Growth High Fertility Cumulative Savings Rs 5,43,015 Crores Low Fertility Expenditures (INR Crores) Projections arrived using SPECTRUM with inputs from Census, 2001, NFHS -2 & NFHS -3 and Eleventh five-year plan

  24. Better Education With Less Population Pressure Photo by RahulVenkatram • More resources for training and incentives to keep teachers in rural areas • More resources for classrooms and educational material • Smaller classrooms and better learning environments • Progress on MDG 2: • Achieve universal primary education

  25. Environment and Food Security Goals: • Accelerate the agricultural growth rate of 4% per annum during 2007-12 • Increase the foodgrains production by at least 20 million tonnes by 2012 Photo by Michael Foley Eleventh Five Year Plan 2007-2012

  26. EnvironmentalDegradation Larger Population Leads to Overuse of Land Photo by Bron Lower Productivity Overexploitation Deforestation Erosion Poorer soil fertility

  27. Land Fragmentation Higher Population, Less Land per Holder Photos by Sankara Subramanian (top), Simply CVR (bottom) Land holdings divided among more family members Lower productivity from small farms – less food security

  28. Undernourishment Larger Population, Greater Demand for Food Photo by World Bank Source: Food and Agriculture Organization, Statistics Division 1 out of 5 people do not have enough to eat Less food per person

  29. Targeted Public Distribution System More Families Will Require Food Subsidies High Fertility Low Fertility Population Requiring Subsidies (Millions) Sources: India Economic Survey; Department of Food and Public Distribution; Authors’ calculations

  30. Future Expenditure on Food Subsidies Greater Pressure to Provide Subsidies Cumulative Savings Rs 6,21,881 Crores High Fertility Low Fertility Expenditure on Subsidy (INR Crores) Sources: India Economic Survey; Department of Food and Public Distribution; Authors’ calculations

  31. Water and Electricity Sustainability “Adequate safe drinking water facilities should be provided to the entire population both in urban and in rural areas.” - National Water Policy, 2002 Photo by Barefoot Photographers of Tilonia Source: Ministry of Water Resources

  32. Access to Safe Drinking Water Less Demand for Water with Lower Fertility High Fertility Low Fertility People Without Access (Millions) Projections arrived using SPECTRUM with inputs from Census, 2001, NFHS -2 & NFHS -3 and Ministry of Water Resources

  33. Electricity Less Demand with Lower Fertility High Fertility Low Fertility Electricity Consumption (Billions Kilowatt Hours) Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, India Energy Profile

  34. Economy Goals: • Increase average GDP growth rate to 9% per year • Reduce unemployment among the educated to less than 5% • Increase local wage rate of unskilled workers by 20% • Reduce head-count ratio of consumption poverty by 10% Photo by HimanshuSarpotdar Eleventh Five Year Plan 2007-2012

  35. Labour Force Unemployment, Underemployment Eight percent of population is unemployed Population with formal education are unable to find jobs Migration to cities in search of employment Photo by McKay Savage

  36. Employment Number of People Seeking Employment Will Continue to Rise High Fertility Low Fertility Total Labour Force (Millions) Projections arrived using SPECTRUM with inputs from Census, 2001, NFHS -2 & NFHS -3

  37. Better Economy With Less Population Pressure • More funding for social sector • Greater disposable family income for education and health • Lower youth unemployment • Greater stability • Progress on MDGs 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Photo by Ford APA

  38. Health • Goals: • Reducing Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) to 100 per 100,000 live births • Reducing Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) to 28 per 1000 live births • Reducing Total Fertility Rate (TFR) to 2.1 Photo by World Bank Eleventh Five Year Plan 2007-2012

  39. Decline in the national maternal mortality ratio is small compared to the goal Maternal deaths per 100,000 live births Rate of decline needs to be faster to meet the MDG Source: Special Bulletin on Maternal Mortality in India 2004-06, Sample Registration System, Office of Registrar General, India. April 2009. Photos by Uvrish Joshi (top), Sara Anderson (bottom)

  40. Maternal deaths per 100,000 live births State Maternal Mortality Ratio States need to invest in quality health care services and empower women to demand their reproductive and health rights Source: Special Bulletin on Maternal Mortality in India 2004-06, Sample Registration System, Office of Registrar General, India. April 2009.

  41. State Infant Mortality Rate Infant deaths per 1,000 live births Source: SRS Photo by Matthieu A.

  42. Population with Specific Needs Women of Childbearing Age and Children Under Five High Fertility Low Fertility Women and Children (Millions) Projections arrived using SPECTRUM with inputs from Census, 2001, NFHS -2 & NFHS -3 and Eleventh five-year plan

  43. Nurses Less Pressure on Health Providers High Fertility Low Fertility Nurses Needed (Millions) Projections arrived using SPECTRUM with inputs from Census, 2001, NFHS -2 & NFHS -3 and Medical Council of India

  44. Health Expenditures Less Pressure on Health Services Cumulative Savings Rs 5,38,200 Crores High Fertility Low Fertility INR (Crores) Projections arrived using SPECTRUM with inputs from Census, 2001, NFHS -2 & NFHS -3 and MoHFW

  45. Improved Health With Less Population Pressure • More resources to train staff, retain staff, and improve facilities • Fewer maternal and child deaths • Progress on MDGs 4: Reduce child mortality 5: Reduce maternal mortality 6: Combat HIV/AIDS and malaria Photos by Stephane Tougard (top), Suneeta Sharma (bottom)

  46. Outline 1 2 3 4 5 National Development Vision Population Situation and Context Population and Development Factors Family Planning: Challenges The Role of Policy: Opportunities

  47. High percentage of non- contraceptive users indicates a gap in service delivery Use of Family Planning Methods Photo by Anonymous Source: DLHS-3 (2007-08), IIPS Mumbai

  48. Number of Children at Sterilisation or Use of IUCD Bihar Photo by AmreGhiba Source: NFHS-3 (2005-06), IIPS Mumbai

  49. Northern states hold the key to reducing fertility because of the large unmet need for family planning. Photo by ShreyansBansali By simply meeting unmet need for contraceptives, India can achieve replacement level fertility. Source: Institute for population Sciences (IIPS), 2006. District Level Household Survey (DLHS-2), 2002-04: India & DLHS – 3 (2007-08), IIPS, Mumbai

  50. Meeting unmet need will avert nearly 12 lakhs infant deaths 11,79,615 child deaths averted Photo by Daniela Hartman Source: Sample Registration System, Registrar General of India, MDG analysis provided by USAID|Health Policy Initiative Project

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