Land use in the coming decades Science, Policy and Economics

1. Land use in the coming decades Science, Policy and Economics Uwe A. Schneider Sustainability and Global Change Research Unit, Hamburg University

2. Land provides Food Energy Habitat Repository Employment Relaxation

3. Land use impacts Nutrition (Malnutrition) Climate Biodiversity Water Soil Civil safety Landscape & Culture

4. Land use impacts Opportunities (Benefits) Threats (Costs) They are linked. Globally.

5. Land use questions What is the optimal land use? Are we at the optimal state? If not, how do we get there?

6. How do we get there? Economics Policy Society Science We have started the process

7. Society demands • Provision of enough healthy food • Protection of biodiversity • Mitigation of climate change • Production of bioenergy • Creation of jobs • Pollution reduction Policy targets for coming decades

8. Scientific Contribution • Genetic Changes • Management Alternatives • Carbon sequestration • Bioenergy, Biomaterial

9. Why Economics? • Resources are relatively finite • Conflicts and synergies • Marginal utilities of goods are decreasing Complex Optimization Problem

10. Agricultural GHG Mitigation 500 450 400 350 Technical Potential Competitive Economic Potential 300 Carbon price (Euro/tce) 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation (mmtce) Schneider, McCarl, and Schmid, Agricultural Systems, 2007

11. Agricultural Markets 220 200 Crop prices 180 160 140 Livestock prices Fisher index 120 Livestock production 100 80 60 Crop production Crop exports 40 20 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Carbon price ($/tce)

12. Welfare Changes 8 6 4 Gross Producer Surplus 2 Net Producer Surplus 0 Billion $ -2 Emission Payments -4 -6 ConsumerSurplus -8 -10 0 20 40 60 80 100 Carbon price ($/tce)

13. Optimal Mitigation Strategy Mix 500 Afforestation Sink 400 Tillage Carbon Sink 300 Carbon price ($/tce) CH4 N2O Decrease 200 Bioenergy Emission Offsets 100 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Emission reduction (mmtce) McCarl and Schneider, Science, 2001

14. Tillage Carbon Sink 500 400 Economic Potential 300 Carbon price ($/tce) Competitive Economic Potential 200 Technical Potential 100 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Soil carbon sequestration (mmtce) McCarl and Schneider, Science, 2001

15. Environmental Co-Effects 100 N Subsurface Flow 90 80 N Percolation Pollution (%/acre) 70 Soil Erosion 60 50 P Loss 40 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Carbon price ($/tce)

16. Emission Leakage 160 Non-Annex I crop net exports for agricultural GHG mitigation policy in: 150 140 Fisher’s Ideal Index 130 USA Only 120 Annex I Countries 110 100 All Countries 90 0 20 40 60 80 100 Carbon price ($/tce)

17. 2030 Scenarios Schneider, Havlik, Schmid, Obersteiner et al., submitted, 2009

18. Birds Mammals 4 5 2 7 6 12 13 2 14 3 15 8 16 11 1 1 18 21 4 22 9 17 5 10 3 19 23 25 • Acrocephalus paludicola Aquatic Warbler Seggenrohrsänger • Alcedo atthis Kingfisher Eisvogel • Anser erythropus Lesser White-fronted Goose Zwerggans • Aquila chrysaetos Golden Eagle Steinadler • Aquila clanga Spotted Eagle Schelladler • Ardeapurpurea purpurea Purple Heron Purpurreiher • Ardeola ralloides Squacco Heron Rallenreiher • Asio flammeus Short-eared Owl Sumpfohreule • Aythya nyroca Ferruginous Duck Moorente • Botaurus stellaris stellaris Bittern Rohrdommel • Chlidonias hybridus Whiskered Tern Weißbartseeschwalbe • Chlidonias niger Black Tern Trauerseeschwalbe • Ciconia ciconia White Stork Weißstorch • Ciconia nigra Black Stork Schwarzstorch • Crex crex Corncrake Wachtelkönig • Fulica cristata Crested Coot Kammbläßhuhn • Gavia arctica Black-throated Diver Prachttaucher • Gelochelidon nilotica Gull-billed Tern Lachseeschwalbe • Glareola pratincola Collared Pratincole Brachschwalbe • Grus grus Crane Kranich • Haliaeetus albicilla White-tailed Eagle Seeadler • Hoplopterus spinosus Spur-winged Plover Spornkiebitz • Ixobrychus m. minutus Little Bittern Zwergdommel • Marmaronetta angustrostris Marbled Teal Marmelente • Milvus migrans Black Kite Schwarzmilan • Nycticorax nycticorax Night Heron Nachtreiher • Oxyura leucocephala White-headed Duck Weißkopf-Ruderente • Pandion haliaetus Osprey Fischadler • Pelecanus crispus Dalmatian Pelican Krauskopfpelikan • Pelecanus onocrotalus White Pelican Rosapelikan • Phalacrocorax pygmaeus Pygmy Cormorant Zwergscharbe • Philomachus pugnax Ruff Kampfläufer • Platalea leucorodia Spoonbill Löffler • Plegadis falcinellus Glossy Ibis Braunsichler • Porphyrio porphyrio Purple Gallinule Purpurhuhn • Porzana parva parva Little Crake Kleines Sumpfhuhn • Porzana porzana Spotted Crake Tüpfelsumpfhuhn • Porzana pusilla Baillon´s Crake Zwergsumpfhuhn • Sterna albifrons Little Tern Zwergseeschwalbe • Tadorna ferruginea Ruddy Shelduck Rostgans • Tringa glareola Wood Sandpiper Bruchwasserläufer 24 20 26 27 30 6 7 31 28 8 29 35 9 33 • Castor fiber Eurasian Beaver Europäischer Biber • Galemys pyrenaicus Pyrenean Desman Pyrenäen-Desman • Lutra lutra European Otter Fischotter • Microtus cabrerae Cabrera's Vole Cabreramaus • Microtus oec. arenicola Dutch Root Vole Niederländische Wühlmaus • Microtus oec. mehelyi Pannonian Root Vole Ungarische Wühlmaus • Mustela lutreola European Mink Europäischer Nerz • Myotis capaccinii Long-fingered Bat Langfußfledermaus • Myotis dasycneme Pond Bat Teichfledermaus 32 34 36 41 38 37 Reptiles 39 40 Amphibians 13 4 1 6 1 5 3 2 3 14 15 • Alytes muletensis Mallorcan Midwife Toad Balearen-Geburtshelferkröte • Bombina bombina Fire-Bellied Toad Rotbauchunke • Bombina variegata Yellow-Bellied Toad Gelbbauchunke • Chioglossa lusitanica Golden-striped Salamander Goldstreifensalamander • Discoglossus galganoi Iberian Painted Frog Iberian painted frog • Discoglossus montalentii Corsican Painted Frog Korsischer Scheibenzüngler • Discoglossus sardus Tyrrhenian Painted Frog Sardischer Scheibenzüngler • Pelobates f. insubricus Common Spadefoot Italienische Knoblauchkröte • Rana latastei Italian Agile Frog Italienischer Springfrosch • Salamandrina terdigitata Spectacled Salamander Brillensalamander • Triturus carnifex Italian Crested Newt Alpen-Kammolch • Triturus cristatus Great Crested Newt Kammolch • Triturus dobrogicus Danube Crested Newt Donau-Kammolch • Triturus karelini Southern Crested Newt Balkankammmolch • Triturus montandoni Carpathian Newt Karpatenmolch 4 12 9 11 8 2 • Elaphe quatuorlineata Four-lined Snake Vierstreifennatter • Emys orbicularis European Pond Tortoise Europäische Sumpfschildkröte • Mauremys caspica Stripe Necked Terrapin Kaspische Wasserschildkröte • Mauremys leprosa Spanish Terrapin Spanische Wasserschildkröte 10 7

19. 60 50 Mires (Peat lands) All Wetland Wet Forest 40 Wet Grass Water Course 30 Water Bodies Area in million hectares 20 10 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Representation Minimum Jantke and Schneider, 2009

20. EU25 Bioenergy Potentials 600 500 Wetlands = 40 Mha 400 Marginal Biomass Cost in Euro/ton 300 30 Mha 200 10 Mha 100 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 European Biomass Production in million tons Schleupner and Schneider, FNU-158, 2008

21. Challenges for Policy Design • Data and model uncertainty • Political feasibility • Monitoring and enforcement

22. Available Data Models New Data Insights Improved Models

23. Ex: Land Use Policy Insights • Simulation results suggest that current and historical land use and land quality assumptions are crucial drivers • Better accounting on current land use, land attributes, and land management is needed

24. Conclusions • Policies based on science but not on economics will backfire • Detailed land monitoring at global level crucial before implementation of policies • Bioenergy from dedicated plantations may cause more damage than benefit • Deforestation of old growth forests has small benefits for few but large costs to many • Land restoration should receive greater attention