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Storm Surge Training

Explore the intricacies of Real-Time SLOSH training, including worst-case scenario maps and probabilistic storm surge models. Learn about limitations and how to interpret surge data accurately.

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Storm Surge Training

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  1. Storm Surge Training

  2. SLOSH Storm Surge Model Behind the scenes • Pre-generated • Parallel runs of Similar intensity storms • Worst Case Scenario Maps • Real-time SLOSH • Probabilistic storm surge (online for public) • Real-Time SLOSH runs (NWS Only)

  3. Winds 120 mph Eye Diameter 25nm Moving NW 5 mph

  4. Winds 120 mph Eye Diameter 25nm Moving WNW 15 mph

  5. Realtime SLOSH Limitations • STRONGLY dependent on accurate track forecast! • Very inaccurate more than a day in advance of landfall • Use with extreme caution!

  6. NHC TRACK ERROR 12 hr. OUT 133 mph, 933 mb. Hurricane Advisory – Approximately 12 hr. before landfall

  7. Rmax=25 mi (forecast) Surge Based on NHC -12 hr. Advisory

  8. ACTUAL TRACK TRACK FORECAST 133 mph, 933 mb. Actual Hurricane Track 30 mi. E of -12 hr. Advisory Forecast Track

  9. Rmax=40 mi Surge Based on NHC Storm Best Track

  10. Probabilistic Storm Surge • Uses an ensemble of SLOSH runs • Intended to be used operationally so it is based on NHC’s official advisory • Based on statistics of past performance of the advisories • Based on size, intensity, of current and past storms rather than a random sampling

  11. Cross-Track Error

  12. Other Parameters Size: Small (30%), Medium (40%), Large (30%) Forward Speed: Fast (30%), Medium (40%), Slow (30%) Intensity: Strong (30%), Medium (40%), Weak (30%)

  13. When is it Available? • Initiated whenever a hurricane watch is issued! • Available ~20-30 minutes after advisory release

  14. Available Surge Products Probabilistic: This graphic shows the overall chance that storm surges will be greater than x feet above normal tide levels during the next 3 days. Exceedance: This experimental graphic shows storm surge heights, in feet above normal tide level, which have a x percent chance of being exceeded during the next 3 days.

  15. Deterministic SLOSH run shows limited surge threat to Pensacola area Rmax=25 mi (forecast) Surge Based on NHC -12 hr. Advisory

  16. Actual storm caused highest surge in Pensacola area

  17. Probabilistic product shows considerable surge threat to Pensacola area

  18. Questions???

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