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China and the Latin America: Interest Change and Cooperation Potential

China and the Latin America: Interest Change and Cooperation Potential. Chai, Yu (Ph.D, Prof.) The Institute of Latin America The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences May 26, 2010 Washington D.C. Framework I. The relations between China and the Latin America: development and change

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China and the Latin America: Interest Change and Cooperation Potential

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  1. China and the Latin America: Interest Change and Cooperation Potential Chai, Yu (Ph.D, Prof.) The Institute of Latin America The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences May 26, 2010 Washington D.C

  2. Framework I • The relations between China and the Latin America: development and change • __ China’s Economic Development Model • __ Change in the relations • __ Feature of the present relations

  3. Framework II • The coordination and cooperation between China and the Latin America • __China’s attitude: concerned and constructive • __the way to cooperation

  4. China’s Development Model • Inclusive model: • In the future, this model has still to be followed. • The Latin America: benefited from this model, but not enough.

  5. China: GDP growth GDP Governmental expenditure： 15％ Domestic investment and FDI： 35－40％ Consumption： 40％ Export 5－10％

  6. 分享中国的发展—外资渠道 • 1985-2003年间,外资企业对于总贸易累计增加量的贡献比例为 （进口和出口的总和） 61.64%, 其中，出口为 62.41%, 进口累进增长量的 60.90%。 • 1981-2003年间, 加工贸易对于中国出口累计增加量的贡献比例为57.83%。 • 2004－2007年间，外企和加工贸易在中国出口增加总额中的贡献比例分别为46.70%和56.56%；在中国进口中的比例分别为36.93%和58.88%。

  7. Who shares China’s growth?

  8. Which Partners Benefit? 2006-2007, 100million USD 1993 －2003 , 100million USD partners increase in partners increase in share import share import Japan 182.77 11.11 Japan 508.55 16.54 Korea 140.02 8.51 Korea 377.75 12.28 TaiWan Taiwan province 139.34 8.47 province 364.29 11.85 US 101.82 6.19 US 232.78 7.57 Germany 75.02 4.56 Germany 182.95 5.95 Australia 65.31 3.97 Malaysia 129.03 4.20 Philipines54.43 3.31 Thailand 82.27 2.68 Brazil 54.22 3.29 Singapore 79.15 2.57 Malaysia 51.38 3.12 Philipines 60.93 1.98 Thailand 47.05 2.86 Australia 53.56 1.74 Chile 45.21 2.75 Saudi Arabia 50.76 1.65 India 43.56 2.65 Brazil 49.82 1.62 Iran 33.55 2.04 Russia 48.68 1.58 Canada 33.18 2.02 France 44.57 1.45 Total 1645.78 100 Total 3080 100.00

  9. 中国在全球经济中的角色 NIEs：台湾，韩国和香港 美国 和 欧盟 市场 日本 中国 更多资源丰富国家的加入

  10. The prospect for inclusive model: -1 1）labor cost increases. Since 2008 when new labor law has been implemented, the cost increases by 40-50%. RMB appreciates by 21% since 2005. 2）in the future, labor-seeking investment would decrease but market seeking investment would increase. 3） In the next 10 years（12-15 years), China’s export would be limited by some articles in the WTO accession protocol, eg. Safeguard mechanisms on transitional product-specific for 12 years, nonmarket economy status for 15 years, special safeguard mechanism for textile products, transitional Review Mechanism for 8 years.

  11. ——2 Restraints from the external market. Exports expand by 20% per year in the last two decades. China is the first economy affected by trade protectionism. Transforming ways of economic development. conclusion：inclusive model would be continued.China means opportunity, not threat.

  12. 中国成为最大受害者

  13. 大国成为主体

  14. 发展中国家值得关注

  15. （3）传统中国经济增长方式面临挑战 低成本、高投入、高污染的传统经济增长方式难以为继； 廉价劳动力不应该，也不会是我们长久的竞争源泉—因为发展经济的目的就是要改善人们的生活，提高人民的工资。 同时，经济的发展也意味着资源的节约和环境保护的加强。

  16. 方向 • 共享发展模式 • 人民共享模式 • 环境友好模式

  17. 中国的新作用和地位 一方面，在国际上，中国的对外经济的发展已经冲击到了整个国际经济秩序的边界——贸易不平衡，金融体系以及美元的地位；贸易扩张以及盈余，引发保护主义，冲击国际贸易体系；中国的经济崛起冲击现有的全球治理结构。中国的地位和作用如何？ 另一方面，国内经济的发展却还沉重的经济以及社会转型的压力。。。 中国进入到了一个发展的关键时期。

  18. Change in the relations 1 • Historical connection: __In the 5th century AD，Chinese monks have been Mexico. __In the Ming dynasty, silk way on the sea.

  19. Change in the relations 2 • In 1950’s, non-governmental contacts. Accumulative development with steady steps. cultural and trade delegation in 1960, diplomatic relations were established between China and Cuba. • In this period, China’s goal is keeping contact and building understanding, in order to resume her seat in the UN.

  20. Change in the relations 3 • In 1970’s, 12 countries have established diplomatic relations with China. Cultural, economic and trade links have been expanded. • China also resumed the seat in the UN, and established diplomatic relations with the US. • In this period, China’s interest lied in exploring more room for international activities. • In the above periods, China takes more political factors into considerations in the relations.

  21. Change in the relations 4 • 1978-2000, with China’s openness, economic and trade contacts have increased greatly. Dengxiaoping: the issues we face now is peace and development. By the end of 1990s, 19 countries have diplomatic ties with China. • Since then, economic interest has become the driving force of the relations.

  22. Change in the relations 5 • Since the beginning of the new century, a multi-directional, multilevel and wide-range relations are shown to us. It has made a big step in the relations between two parties. • Hu jingtao: China-Latin America cooperation faces unprecedented historical opportunities (2004). • The goal for China is to build and develop a comprehensive and cooperative partnership featuring equality, mutual benefit and common development.

  23. Feature of the present situation • Strategic partnership: Brazil, Mexico, Argentin, Peru, Chile, Cuba, Venezuela. • Multi-directional: south, middle and Carribean. • Multilevel: political, economic, cultural, security, and 30 fields. --Political: 21 countries have diplomatic relations with China. Bilateral, multilateral and international dialogue and consultation mechanisms. --Economic: trade and investment increased greatly. Trade angel and infrastructure aider. --Cultural: confusion college, sister cities, etc. --Security: military exchanges, judicial and police cooperation,nontraditional security.

  24. China and Latin America: 60 years source: the relations between China and Latin America in the past 60 years, Zhengbingwen, Sunhongbo and Yueyunxia.

  25. The coordination and cooperation between China and the Latin America __China’s attitude: concerned and constructive “Now the humane man, wishing himself to be established, sees that others are established, and, wishing himself to be successful, sees that others are successful.” Analects of Confusius (551BC-479BC)

  26. The coordination and cooperation between China and the Latin America __the way ahead * Dialogue and Consultation: deepen mutual understanding * Economic integration: inclusive development, eg. ASEAN * China and the US: mechnism with Japan, Korea, Spain, etc. Capacity building.

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