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SSPP Topic Group

SSPP Topic Group. Mainstream Pupil Number Forecasting System Kate Ma Planning Officer, School Places Team. Outline Programme. Overview of Forecasting System Objective & Purpose Methodology Producing Pupil Forecasts Analysis Demonstration. Overview of the Forecasting System.

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SSPP Topic Group

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  1. SSPP Topic Group Mainstream Pupil Number Forecasting System Kate Ma Planning Officer, School Places Team

  2. Outline Programme • Overview of Forecasting System • Objective & Purpose • Methodology • Producing Pupil Forecasts • Analysis • Demonstration

  3. Overview of the Forecasting System • Introduced in 2003 • Software system - Oracle database • User web interface • Methodology based on Audit Commission’s recommendations for pupil forecasting • Produces annual pupil forecasts • Forecast modelling

  4. Objectives & Purpose of Forecasting • To project pupil numbers at planning area level to inform school place planning activity, e.g. - As a tool to identify areas of rising surplus places - Setting published admission numbers - Reporting to DfES on projected pupil numbers, HCC wide

  5. Forecast Methodology • Forecasts are based on 22 education planning areas (secondary) • These are sub divided into primary planning areas • Updated data sets are imported into the forecasting system in April each year • From these data sets, the annual pupil forecasts are produced

  6. Annual Data Imports • Actual Pupil Numbers (PLASC) - Unique pupil number, year group, their school now and last year. • GP Registrations (Health Authority) - Postcodes and dates of birth • New Housing Completions Predictions (Environment Department Database) • Postcode file • School data

  7. Simplified flow chart of the forecasting process 7 SECONDARY PRIMARY January New Housing Previous Pupil Completions uses Movement Count. GP Data . Patterns To Predict To Predict To Predict future future New Pupils Reception Admission Classes Classes Data from external Source Data Created in Software Produce Create Area Forecasts Forecast Complete Forecast And split down to Report Schools Produce Variance Report Compare this year's Actuals with Used to improve previous years forecast accuracy Forecast

  8. Data set samples – Pupil Data

  9. Data sets – Housing Development Description

  10. Data sets – Housing Development House Type

  11. Data sets – Housing Development Completion Forecast

  12. Housing Developments • Source: Environment Department • Contains all new developments from Local Plan allocations through to planning permissions • Identified by number of bedrooms and geographical location

  13. New Housing Pupil Yield

  14. 2006/7 Pupil Forecasts • 2006/7 Pupil Forecast - Secondary & Primary - Used to inform the planning process at planning area level • Make-Up of 2006/7 Forecast - Secondary & Primary - Admissions/Births/Surviving Cohorts/Pupils from new housing

  15. Analysis of projections prior to publication • Variance Analysis – by area – under/over estimations Correlation between current cohort and future projections • Analysis of 0 – 4 year old data • Local Intelligence

  16. Forecasting System Demonstration

  17. Harpenden Secondary population trends

  18. 2006/7 Harpenden Yr 7 Forecasts

  19. 2006/7 Forecast Reception Trends - Harpenden

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