Public Policy Analysis.

1. Public Policy Analysis.

2. Issue Search

3. How and why do some issues get on the policy while others do not or, if they do, receive only cursory or belated attention? • An issue seems likely to reach the agenda if one or more of the following circumstances apply: • The issue has reached Crisis and cannot be ignored any longer.

4. The Issue has achieved particularity – e.g. acid rain served to exemplify and dramatize the larger issue. • The issue has an emotive aspect or what is called ‘human interest angle” –e g Thalidomide children, a law and order issue – Nithari Killings. • The issue has a wide impact –health scare • Issue raises questions about authority and legitimacy – picketing . • The issue is fashionable.

5. Case for Active Issue Search • The need to anticipate problems and opportunities. : • The best time to start treating a problem might well be before a crisis forced the issue onto the political agenda. • It often takes a considerable amount of ‘lead’ time to set up the organisational structure to deal with a problem. • If a decision has to be made very quickly once crisis has arisen it may be based on inadequate information.

6. There are formidable technical and intellectual problems in devising methods of ensuring advance warning. • It is political factor which help to explain the relatively passive role of governments . • Temptation for government to concentrate on current problems. - • E.g.. Question of reshuffling of ministers. • Similarly civil servants are likely to have moved on before any hypothetical crisis actually materialises.

7. The need to rectify unequal access to the policy agenda. • The problem of analytical overload. • The problem of political overload.

8. Distinctive characteristic of public sector issue search • Hellriegel and Solcum drew attention to the different modes of scanning: • Undirected viewing. • Conditioned viewing • Informal search • Formal search

9. Government has advantages when it seeks to collect information it needs • First of all its sheer size means that it has the resources to carry out surveys of a type which might not be justifiable by smaller organizations. • Government has the power to compel people to provide the information.

10. Information needs and issue search • Changes in clientele • New Problems • New Solutions

11. Issue Filteration

12. Issue filtration takes place on a daily basis – e.g. civil servants sorting comments in his tray into mental categories such as : • Hold for further consideration • Pass on as quickly as possible. • Many times this is intuitive and ad hoc.

13. Criteria for Issue Filtration • Issue’s Context: • Is there time for analysis? • To what extent does the issue have political overtones? • Have fixed position been adopted on the issues? • How central to the concerns of the organisation is the issue?

14. Issue’s Internal Characteristics • Is there scope for choice? • How much consensus is the re about the issue? • How complex is the issue? • How much uncertainty is there about the issue and possible outcomes? • How value-laden is the issue?

15. Issue’s Repercussions • What scale of consequences is involved? • Will many people be affected? • How significant are the affected groups? • How significant is the group affected? • Is the issue likely to ramify and affect other issues? • Will acting upon the issue restrict the agency’s future flexibility of action

16. Costs of Action and Analysis • How large are the costs of acting on the issues? • Cost increment or quantum jump? • For how long a period will resources be committed? • What will be the cost of analysis? • What will analysis have pay-offs?

17. Procedures for Issue filtration • Priority Matrices

19. There is an initial coarse filter in the form of a decision tree, thus reducing the number of issues to be fed into the more comprehensive, detailed and discriminating filtration procedure of the matrix with its many criteria and more elaborate weight scoring and ranking provisions. • In this initial stage, several clusters of the twenty criteria are conflated into broad tests or

20. Does the issue appear to have significant consequence? Refer for analysis Yes Have fixed positions already adopted Yes Is the issue Highly Politicised? Yes Is the issue very value laden? Yes Yes Yes No Is there time for analysis Yes Yes No Issues unsuitable for analysis refer to normal departmental decision making process

21. Issue Defintion

22. Defining issue definition • By issue definition we mean the processes by which an issue have been recognised as such and placed on the public policy agenda, is perceived by various interested parties; further explored, articulated and possibly quantified; and in some but not all cases given an authoritative or at least provisionally acceptable definition in terms of its likely causes, components, and consequences • Certain phrases in above definition merit some further attention.

23. We are concerned with processes in the plural – • Becoming aware of a stimulus to thought or action • Interpreting that stimulus; and • Relating it to what one already knows or believes – i.e. to a cognitive map. • Refers to issues being perceived as such. It is a highly subjective process – see through different Conceptual lenses (Allison). • Only a provisionally acceptable definition may be achieved. • Hopes for quantification. • Is a highly political process and hence has much to do with power.

24. Approaches to issue definition • Who says there is a problem ? Why? • Is it a real problem? Is it treatable by government? • Is there likely to be agreement on the problem? Some of the factors likely to condition the degree of agreement are : • Number of different agencies or interests involved at this stage; • Availability and reliability of relevant information and • The extent to which the issue is value laden.

25. Is it too soon to attempt a definition? – the policy makers should try to avoid the premature adoption of a single, too restrictive definition of the issue. • Do those defining the problem have a particular policy frame? • Etzioni – different approaches • Young – assumptive worlds • Allison – organisational process model • The tendency to define in a stereotype way.

26. Are there alternative policy frames? • What is the level of aggregation? • Eg. Homelessness. • Evictees – rent arrears, by anti-social • Victims of martial discord • Transient • Victims of civil emergencies • Families without satisfactory house –young married couples, • Single homeless • Nomads – Romanies etc • Is the causal structure of the problem understood?

27. Group 1 Early environment and upbringing Group 1 Hereditary Group 3 Criminal Personality Group 6 Crisis and events Gets into trouble Group 5 Current Living Circumstance Group4 Socio-Economic Status Vandal Act Group 8 Persons Cognitive and Perception eg. Low risk of being caught Group 7 Situation E.g. poorly lit lamps, no police

28. Problem of hierarchy- problems are not exclusive. • Often too much attention is given to the suppression of the problem and too little to causes eg. Litter • Deteriorating standard of behavious • Under provision of bins • Refuse from restaurants – eat and throw • Inadequate enforcement. • Can the implications of the problems be specified even quantified?

29. Scale • Incidence – question of uniformity • Characteristics – eg. Dampness –young , old??? • Targetability – to direct resources • Scope for problem attraction – question of single parent poverty alleviation programme. • Rate of change –inflation – rapid vs. gradual

30. Forecasting

31. In making choices we implicitly or explicitly making assumptions about the future. Forecasting involves making those assumptions explicitly and rigorously, the assumption being that the resulting choices will in some sense be better.

32. Problems with Forecasting The difference between predictions in sciences and forecasting for policy makers The probability of any predicted future is subject to major modifications by deliberate action within the time span. There fore focus on assessing the implication s of different assumptions. Yet there is a danger of self fulfilling prophecies.

33. Forecasting the Present and the Recent Past. The information we have may be three months, a year or even longer out-of-date and subject to revisions greater than the original changes shown. E.g.. National income. Lack of Data- may have no data at all. Appropriate levels of aggregation – not just with overall picture but Spatial distribution Subcategories Distribution over time.

34. Lack of understanding of processes Need to understand the social or economic processes involved. The cost of forecasting The cost of data collection The cost of data processing Costs of presentation Cost of consumption Costs of non – forecasting The extra cost of making provisions for unforeseen, Cost arising from failure to make provision

35. The Time Available for Forecasting Time taken may foreclose options. This is especially so where long lead time in implementing a policy is involved. The Consumption of Forecasts Main purpose is to assist policymakers.

36. Types of Forecast • One off and iterative forecasts • Iterative forecast stresses on the importance of continuous updating and feedback of information • What should be forecast? • Relevant periods for forecast? • Short term vs long term • Long range vs medium range • Relevant period varies from policy to policy. • Based on – • effects already revealed (e.g.. number of old age people • Where major trends are available • None available

37. Politicisation of forecast • Immigration policy (UK) • Son of the soil • Favourable or unfavourable depending on ruling or opposition party • Problems with alternate policy formation • Salesmanship

38. Objectives and Priorities

40. Management by objectives (MBO) is a systematic and organized approach that allows management to focus on achievable goals and to attain the best possible results from available resources. It aims to increase organizational performance by aligning goals and subordinate objectives throughout the organization. Ideally, employees get strong input to identify their objectives, time lines for completion, etc. • Management by Objectives (MBO) was first outlined by Peter Drucker in 1954 in his book 'The Practice of Management'. In the 90s, Peter Drucker himself decreased the significance of this organization management method, when he said: "It's just another tool. It is not the great cure for management inefficiency... Management by Objectives works if you know the objectives, 90% of the time you don't."

41. Objective as a key element in administrative reform • Management by Objective (MBO) –as the Fulton Committee on Civil Service

42. Core Concepts According to Drucker managers should "avoid the activity trap", getting so involved in their day to day activities that they forget their main purpose or objective. Instead of just a few top-managers, all managers should: • participate in the strategic planning process, in order to improve the implementability of the plan, and • implement a range of performance systems, designed to help the organization stay on the right track.

43. MBO managers focus on the result, not the activity. They delegate tasks by "negotiating a contract of goals" with their subordinates without dictating a detailed roadmap for implementation. Management by Objectives (MBO) is about setting yourself objectives and then breaking these down into more specific goals or key results. Main Principle • The principle behind Management by Objectives (MBO) is to make sure that everybody within the organization has a clear understanding of the aims, or objectives, of that organization, as well as awareness of their own roles and responsibilities in achieving those aims

44. The basic MBO principles included: • 1. Establish a set of top level strategic G-Os. • 2. Create a cascade of organizational G-Os that are supported by lower level • definitive objectives and action plans. • 3. Develop an organizational role and mission statement, as well as specific • objectives and action plans for each member, often in a manner that involved • participative decision making. • 4. Establish key results and/or performance standards for each objective. • 5. Periodically measurement/assessment of the status or outcome of the G-Os

46. One weakness was its assumption that becoming more defined about the traditionally broad or vague state of G-Os would lead to performance improvement. • An effort was made to shore up this weakness with a focusing upon the goal definition process, which became popularly known as the acronym SMART. To put it briefly, don’t just manage by objectives; manage by “smart” goals or smart objectives. Track your goals with enough specificity that you can apply periodic measurements and you will achieve them!

47. SMART stood for the • characteristics of: Specific, Measurable, Actionable, Reasonable and Time-bound. • One of the almost palpable impressions of SMART goals is that they are pointed; they • have an edge, often a sense of energy created by the specificity, the time limits and the • measurement. Non-SMART goals seem flat in comparison (i.e. Improve productivity); • bureaucratic, like one more strategic plan that’s going nowhere. While the enhancement • to G-O definition was a helpful direction, it did not address fundamental weaknesses in • this model.

48. Weaknesses in the MBO model – why it doesn’t work very well • It emphasized the setting of goals over the working of a plan. • It underemphasised the importance of the environment or context in which the goals were set. • It didn’t address the importance of successfully responding to obstacles and issues as essential to reaching a goal. The model didn’t adequately cope with the obstacles of: • Defects in resources, planning and methodology, • The increasing burden of managing the information organization challenge, • The impact of a rapidly changing environment, which could alter the landscape enough to make yesterday’s G-Os and action plans irrelevant to the present. • It didn’t address the “human nature” issue. People, the world over, set goals every year but don’t follow them through to completion.

49. The Plowden Report’s proposals for changes in public expenditure con • PPBS is in effect on integrating of a number of techniques in a planning and budgeting process for identifying, costing and assigning a complexity of resources for establishing priorities and strategies in a major program and for forecasting costs, expenditure and achievements within the immediate financial year or over a longer period.

50. In the 1940s and 50s, a number of reforms shifted the focus from budget estimates to performance measurement. Performance measures of effectiveness were developed (for example, "miles of road paved per day"), and the budget was based upon functions, activities, and projects. • However, there still did not exist a systematic way to ensure that the budget supported the mission or plans of Department of Defence. Consequently, when the budget changed hands or when new issues were given precedence, objectives or planned courses of action changed also, thwarting continuity from year to year. • The Planning, Programming, and Budgeting System (PPBS) had its birth in 1962 under then Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara. Proponents of PPBS believed that efficiencies and improvements in government operations could be achieved through a common approach for: