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EU RESEARCH ON CLIMATE CHANGE: Present and Future

EU RESEARCH ON CLIMATE CHANGE: Present and Future. Anver Ghazi Head, Global Change Unit European Commission Brussels UNFCCC Workshop Bonn, 21 June 2004. THE HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE From research on environmental protection to integration of sustainability into research.

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EU RESEARCH ON CLIMATE CHANGE: Present and Future

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  1. EU RESEARCH ONCLIMATE CHANGE:Present and Future Anver Ghazi Head, Global Change Unit European Commission Brussels UNFCCC Workshop Bonn, 21 June 2004

  2. THE HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVEFrom research on environmental protection to integration of sustainability into research FP3 & 4: Research on ecosystem functioning and climate; environment protection technologies (e.g. ozone research) FP5: Integration of the environmental dimension in research; more attention to climate, water, coastal integration and urban dynamics FP6: Sustainability to be integrated in all areas of research, especially Energy, Transport and Agriculture

  3. FP5 (1999-2002)CLIMATE RESEARCH Over 180 research projects funded in areas (budget: 250 Mill ECU): - Climate change prediction - Climate dynamics and abrupt changes - Interactions between ecosystems and carbon/nitrogen cycle - Atmospheric composition Change - Stratospheric ozone depletion - Mitigation and adaptation - European contribution to global observation systems - Natural hazards research Contribution to IGBP, WCRP, IHDP and IPCC

  4. Some pertinent results ofon-going FP5 projects • EPICA(European Project on Ice Coring in Antarctica): Ice coring reached a depth of 3100 m. Climate history record of past 900000 years • DEMETER(Development of a European Multi-Model Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction): Capability demonstrated to predict seasonal/interannual climate variations - implications for energy, agriculture, tourism and health • CARBOEUROPE(Carbon Cycle in Europe): Carbon Absorption Capacity of Europe’s terrestrial biosphere reported to be about 7-12% of the annual anthropogenic CO2 emissions

  5. Some pertinent results ofon-going FP5 projects • TRADEOFF (Aircraft Emissions: Contribution of Different Climate Components to Changes in Radiative Forcing): Aviation emission impacts on cirrus clouds three times larger than that from CO2 emissions alone on climate • AICSEX (Arctic Ice Cover Simulation Experiment): The Arctic warming in 1920-1930 and the subsequent cooling in 1950-1970 are due to natural fluctuations in the climate system. • PRUDENCE(Prediction of Regional Scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change Risks and Effects)

  6. Global Emissions Control Strategies Project Objective • Develop global (world) scenarios in order to analyse the impacts of Post-Kyoto policies under flexibility mechanisms for emission reduction, including options to reduce emissions resulting from land use change and for strengthening carbon sinks.

  7. PRUDENCE • observations

  8. PRUDENCE • Regional Modelling

  9. ECMWF operational Multi-Model

  10. ECMWF operational Multi-Model

  11. The 3 interrelated pillars of Priority 6Sustainable Development, Global Change and Ecosystems • Sustainable energy systems (810MEuro): clean energy, energy savings, alternative motor fuels, fuel cells, energy carriers/transport/storage • Sustainable surface transport (610MEuro): environmentally friendly transport, interoperability, safety • Global change and ecosystems (700MEuro): greenhouse gas emissions, water cycle, biodiversity and ecosystems, natural disasters, land management, climate observation, complementary research

  12. Global Change and Ecosystems I. Impact and mechanisms of greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric pollutants on climate, ozone depletion and carbon sinks II. Water cycle, including soil-related aspects III. Biodiversity and ecosystems IV. Mechanisms of desertification and natural disasters V. Strategies for sustainable land management, including coastal zones, agricultural land and forests VI. Operational forecasting and modelling including global climatic change observation systems VII. Complementary research VIII. Cross-cutting issue: Sustainable Development concepts and tools

  13. Work Programme on Area I Impact and mechanisms of greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric pollutants on climate, ozone depletion and carbon sinks Research priorities I.1 Carbon and nitrogen cycles: sources and sinks I.2 Atmospheric pollutants and their regional impacts I.3 Climate dynamics and variability I.4 Prediction of climate change and its impacts I.5 Stratospheric ozone and climate interactions I.6 Adaptation and mitigation strategies

  14. 1st Call - New Instruments(NoE and IP) in Area I I.1 Carbon and nitrogen cycles: sources and sinks; Assessment of the European carbon balance I.2 Atmospheric pollutants and their regional impacts; Integration of European atmospheric composition research I.4 Prediction of climatic change and its impacts; Integrated climate change scenarios I.5 Stratospheric ozone and climate interactions; Ozone-climate links I.6 Adaptation and mitigation strategies Adaptation and mitigation strategies

  15. New FP6 Climate Research Projects • Ensemble-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their impacts (ENSEMBLES) - IP • Stratosphere-Climate Links with emphasis on UTLS (SCOUT) - IP • Atmospheric Composition Change: A European Network (ACCENT) - NOE • Assessment of European Terrestrial Carbon Balance (CARBOEUROPE) - IP

  16. 2nd Call - New Instruments(NoE and IP) in Indent I I.1 Carbon and nitrogen cycles: sources and sinks; Assessment of marine carbon sources and sinks I.2 Atmospheric pollutants and their regional impacts; Atmospheric pollutants and climate forcing I.3 Climate dynamics and variability; Hot spots in the earth system Coupled climate system (STREPS) Novel palaeoreconstruction methods (STREPS) I.5 Stratospheric ozone and climate interactions; Aviation and surface transport impacts

  17. Work Programme on Area VI(2nd Call) Operational forecasting and modelling including global climatic change observation systems VI.1 Development of observing and forecasting systems Earth system observations (Network of Excellence) Co-operative projects on climate observations (STREPs)

  18. 2nd Call for Proposals – Selected IP • CARBOOCEAN: Marine Carbon Sources and Sinks Assessment • AMMA: African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis • QUANTIFY:Quantifying the Climate Impact of Global and European Transport Systems

  19. International Cooperation • US-EU Joint meeting on Climate Change Science and Technology Research, Washington D.C., February 5-6, 2003 • EU-Russia Workshop on Polar Research, Brussels, 26-27 June 2003 • EU- Japan Symposium on Climate Research - Tokyo, 3-5 March 1999 - Brussels, 13-14 March 2003 • EC Global Change Research: International Partnership (ESSP), Brussels, 6-7 May 2004

  20. Earth Observation Summit: EU ContributionJuly 31, 2003, Washington D.C. Summit declaration: • Coordinated Earth-Observation system or systems • EO-Summit III, 4th Quarter 2004 in Europe to discuss 10-year Implementation Plan • Reference to Jo’burg and Evian Summits • Earth Observation Summit III, February 17, 2005, Brussels

  21. Earth Observation Summit: EU ContributionJuly 31, 2003, Washington D.C. Ad hoc Group on Earth-Observation (GEO): • Co-chair: Dr. A. Mitsos, Director-General, Research DG, EC • GEO II meeting, 28-29 November 2003, Baveno, Italy • Participation in GEO- Sub groups and the GEO Secretariat • Earth Observation Partnership Conference, 16 July, Brussels • GEO V meeting, November 2004, Canada

  22. Global Monitoring of Environment and Security GMES Climate Change Noise Industrial Risks Forests Urban Health Floods Agro-environment Water Air Coastal Zones Fires Nature &Biodiversity Soils Monitoring Topography Air Soil Water Habitats Socio-Economic Land-Use Hazards/Risks Meteo and climate data

  23. GLOBAL CHANGE AND ECOSYSTEMS • Specific Support Actions • SECOND CALL • Actions such as the European Network for Research and Global Change (ENRICH) • Actions for associated candidate countries • European contribution to climate related polar research (IPY) • Consolidation and impact assessment of results achieved in EU research projects relating to regional and urban sustainability aspects

  24. 3rd Call for Proposals (16 June 2004) Climate research topics: • Nitrogen cycle and its interaction with C-cycle (IP) • Ocean-atmosphere-chemistry interaction (STREP) • Adaptation and mitigation strategies (IP) • The past climate and its dynamics (IP) • Climate observations/contribution to GEO

  25. THIRD CALL FOR PROPOSALSJune 16, 2004 Earth System Observations (Integrated Project) • Enhance coordinated efforts at data analysis and fill gaps in regional observing systems • Interfaces, interoperability, integration and linkages between observing systems • Improvement of monitoring technologies and standards • Identification of a set of geo-observational products • Observations for detection and documentation of climate change, including extreme events (e.g. ENSO) • Provide contribution to the Group on Earth Observation (GEO) and Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) (Deadline October 26, 2004)

  26. THIRD CALL FOR PROPOSALSJune 16, 2004 Specific Support Actions • Enhancing co-operation between Europe and the developing countries within the context of global earth observation systems (GEO) (Deadline October 26, 2004)

  27. 3rd call deadline:26 October 2004 (1st stage)

  28. Earth System Science

  29. Information To build on current EU Research: www.cordis.lu Information on FP6: europa.eu.int/comm/research/nfp.html FP6 Instruments: europa.eu.int/comm/research/nfp/networks-ip.html

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