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Facing the truth: EU energy policy in the age of shortage of supply

Facing the truth: EU energy policy in the age of shortage of supply How can we ensure energy supply in the long term? Jürgen-Friedrich Hake Head of IEF – Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE) Forschungszentrum Jülich Germany. Facts.

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Facing the truth: EU energy policy in the age of shortage of supply

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  1. Facing the truth: EU energy policy in the age of shortage of supply How can we ensure energy supply in the long term? Jürgen-Friedrich Hake Head of IEF – Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE) Forschungszentrum Jülich Germany

  2. Facts • In the 1990s low energy prices seemed to suggest that energy supplies were secure • But in the last two years surges in the price of oil, the number one source of energy, and power outages in North America and Europe have shown the urgent need for a renaissance in energy policy targeting secure supply • In the longer run, securing energy supplies will be possible only with a broad range of measures • The needs of the moment call for the use of all available levers – the diversification of energy carriers and technologies and the mobilisation of all conservation, reactivation and efficiency-boosting strategies

  3. Challenges Climate Protection Energy Policy Security of Supply Competitiveness

  4. World Primary Energy Demand Source: World Energy Outlook 2005

  5. EU- Greenpaper 03/2006 • Dependency on primary energy carriers is more than 70% • high oil / gas prices • investment in infrastructure: 1 trillion euros • fair and transparent debate about the use of nuclear energy • promotion of REN: 21% until 2010 • strengthening of internal solidarity • climate change mitigation • security of supply and common market (electricity and gas) • promotion of new technologies

  6. Energy Mix • Balance between various sources of energy in primary energy consumption. • different global problems have to be faced in the next decade(s): • shortage of resources • population growth / economic growth • climate change • increasing dependency on imports of primary energy carriers

  7. Statement of EU comission „The third priority identified in the Green Paper goes to the heart of a European energy policy, the EU’s energy mix. How to reconcile the fact that the choice of a Member States energy mix is and will remain a question of subsidiarity with the reality that choices made by one Member State inevitably have an impact on the energy security of its neighbours and of the Community as a whole? For example, decisions to rely largely or wholly on natural gas for power generation in any given Member State have significant effects on the security of supply of its neighbours in the event of a gas shortage. Decisions by Member States relating to nuclear energy can also have very significant consequences on other Member States in terms of the EU’s dependence on imported fossil fuels and CO2 emissions. In reality, therefore, a European approach on the EU’s energy mix is vital, that nonetheless respects subsidiarity.“ Source: Andris Piebalgs /Energy CommissionerA Common Energy Policy for EuropeEU Energy Policy and Law ConferenceBrussels, 9 March 2006

  8. Share of total primary energy supply in different EU countries Source IEA 2003.

  9. EU-25 energy use (in Mtoe) rest REN nuclear power gas oil coal / lignite

  10. Challenges of Energy Policy Environmental Protection Competitveness Security of Supply Prices Availability Emissions Innovation + Diversification + Competition

  11. Recommendations (I) • Return to a national energy policy is no longer possible due to increasing interdependences • But is it necessary to create a common European energy policy? • Co-operation in energy policy and climate change issues is essential for European Union • Energy policy has to be seen in a global context: geopolitics of oil/gas is back! • How to integrate the USA in climate protection regime? New strategies? • Dependence can be reduced only by diversification and intelligent use of energy • increase energy efficiency, use of REN, nuclear energy ,and CCS

  12. Recommendations (II) 4. Global and European context: to be aware of the emerging problems of the transport sector • Do we have alternatives to hydrocarbons? • How to reduce emissions?

  13. Conclusions • Not one solution, but some features are clear We need: • Energy Efficiency … available at which cost? • Natural Gas, Coal … with CO2 capture & storage? • Biofuels, Renewables … with lower costs, higher • availability? • Nuclear Energy … safe waste management? • H2 & Fuel Cells … lower cost and technical advances? • Fusion … maybe, in the very long term? Need to pursue a “Portfolio” approach for policy, technology deployment and R&D

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